THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ECONOMY

JOSHUA J. OMOJUWA argues that all stakeholders should do more to ensure the gains of economic recovery reflect on the masses

Politicians don’t see contradictions; that is why a politician can cry about high food prices and, months later, moan about low food prices with the same fervour. In our political climate, nuance is seen almost as a weakness. Something is either entirely bad or unquestionably good—no middle grounds, no space for measured evaluation. Government is either performing exceptionally well or it is a monumental disaster. The economy is either booming beyond imagination or rapidly heading toward an iceberg, ready to crash like the Titanic. But when seen through a clearer, more honest lens, national issues are rarely ever so absolute. Most realities are a blend of multiple truths coexisting at the same time, overlapping in ways that do not fit neatly into clear divides.

The unfortunate consequence of our refusal to embrace nuance is that public discourse becomes shallow, combative, and increasingly unproductive. This is broadcast live everyday on morning shows. It becomes harder than ever to have honest conversations about the country’s most pressing issues.

Take the economy, for instance. Some insist the economy is doing great. But the moment you ask, “great for who?” the conversation changes entirely. And that question is not only important—it is justified before you even push further. Still, let us start with the good side, because there is a good side. The economy, in several measurable ways, is picking up. The numbers say as much, and the numbers are difficult to ignore.

Inflation, after punishing Nigerians relentlessly, has now been on a downward trajectory for a full year. Food prices, which have been the source of despair for households across the country, have begun to follow in the same direction. On the monetary side, the results have been nothing short of astounding. Our net reserves have grown by over 750 percent—from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $34.8 billion today. This growth has taken us from a dangerously precarious position, one where we struggled to meet our forex obligations, to one of the strongest positions we have held in years. The stability of the naira is directly tied to this improvement in reserves. So is the renewed confidence of foreign investors and multinational companies who need assurance that Nigeria can meet its payment obligations reliably.

None of this would have been possible without dismantling the old corrupt forex subsidy regime. This system was a breeding ground for corruption. The word “corrupt” in this context is almost redundant because corruption was inevitable in such an arrangement. When the government handpicks who gets access to forex and who does not, corruption becomes embedded in the very structure of the process. Some acts of corruption are not even the result of malicious intent; they are simply a consequence of a flawed system. Reforming this system was not optional, it was necessary and credit to President Tinubu for taking that bold step.

In this regard, the Governor of the Central Bank, Olayemi Cardoso, deserves the accolades coming his way too. He is arguably the president’s best appointment so far. His approach has been consistent, disciplined, and focused on long-term stability rather than quick political wins.

On the fiscal side, the appointment of Taiwo Oyedele as Minister of State for Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy has been widely interpreted as a sign that the government is finally ready to strengthen its fiscal agenda. Compared to the progress on the monetary side, the contrast is stark. But with Oyedele now in position, there is a renewed sense of optimism that fiscal policy will finally gather the momentum it has been lacking.

Despite these reforms and positive indicators, one group remains unconvinced—and for good reason: the poor. While businesses are declaring record profits and the Nigerian Stock Exchange continues to soar, the average Nigerian is still waiting for relief. Foreign portfolio investments are flowing in, boosting confidence in the markets, yet these gains feel distant from the daily realities of ordinary citizens. The poor are justified in asking, “when will it be our turn?” It is a question this administration must take seriously.

Economic progress means very little if it does not translate into improved living conditions for the majority. This is the next critical layer the Bola Tinubu administration must prioritize: ensuring that the gains of economic recovery are extended to the masses. State governments must also play their part. As the Senate President Godswill Akpabio recently pointed out, states are currently receiving record amounts from the Federation Account. That money must count for something meaningful.

Unlike some powerful countries that can trigger military conflicts to stimulate parts of their economy, Nigeria does not have that option, nor should it desire it. We must create jobs by more sustainable and ethical means. One opportunity that holds promise is the creation of state police. Although implementation will vary from state to state, even an average recruitment of three thousand officers per state would create over one hundred thousand jobs nationwide. This would expand employment opportunities at the subnational level while strengthening internal security, which itself is a major catalyst for investment and economic growth.

The establishment of state police is not just about security; it has economic implications. A safer environment attracts businesses, boosts confidence, and encourages long-term investments. While this policy will require careful planning, legislative coordination, and significant investment, the potential benefits are substantial. The recent committee set up by the Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu, marks a meaningful step toward making this long-discussed idea a reality.

The narrative must be nuanced and amidst that, we can be clear about progress and the challenges that remain to be met. There is improvement on several fronts, yet millions remain excluded from the gains. Acknowledging both truths at once is the only way to have an honest conversation about where we are and where we need to be. The poor must not remain on the other side of the economy. We need to carry everyone along, if for nothing, for the long-term stability and prosperity of our country.

 Omojuwa is chief strategist, Alpha Reach/BGX Publishing