The Hidden Climate Cost of Nigeria’s Electricity Crisis

SOStainabilityWeekly

Edited by Oke Epia, E-mail: sostainability01@gmail.com  | WhatsApp: +234 8034000706

Trends and Threads

More often than not in Nigeria, the flip of a light switch brings disappointment. For decades, the nation’s electricity sector has shown a chronic inability to provide stable, reliable power to its 200 million-plus citizens. What Nigerians have come to call “epileptic power” – unpredictable, often nonexistent electricity – is more than a daily irritation. It’s a structural crisis that harms the economy and silently accelerates climate change and environmental degradation. Despite abundant resources and decades of reform efforts, Nigeria’s national grid remains fragile, and its repeated failures tell a story that goes far beyond lights flickering in and out.

The collapsing grid and frequent outages

At the heart of Nigeria’s power problems is the national grid- a network designed to distribute electricity from power plants to homes and businesses. On paper, Nigeria has an installed capacity of more than 13,000 megawatts (MW). But in practice, most of that capacity is never available due to a combination of factors affecting the grid. Year after year, the grid has faltered. In 2024, only around 4,200 MW of electricity was actually generated on average, a tiny fraction of what a country of Nigeria’s size needs. Reports from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) show that between 2020 and 2024, the grid collapsed 26 times, with nine of those collapses in 2024 alone. In January 2026, the grid collapsed at least twice. Some experts dispute the language of “collapse” referring to certain outages as “tripping.” Yet, the everyday experience remains the same: power disappearing without warning and often taking hours or days to return.

The hidden cost of generators as an alternative power supply

When the grid fails, households, offices, and factories turn to what is often the only immediate backup: diesel and petrol generators. These machines, powered by fossil fuels, produce electricity with a constant stream of harmful emissions. For most low-income communities, the cost of a large solar system with batteries is simply out of reach. Wealthier businesses and industries can sometimes afford larger renewable installations, but struggling families, micro-businesses, and poorer communities largely cannot. This means their fallback is often the cheapest short-term option: a polluting generator that burns fuel continuously. Generators emit carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and soot, all of which degrade air quality and contribute to respiratory illnesses. Over time, these emissions also add to the global greenhouse effect, fueling climate change and making heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather more frequent and severe.

The International Energy Agency reports that Nigerians rely on generators for around 40 percent of the electricity consumed, a staggering share that reflects just how unreliable the grid has become. This has a two-fold consequence: households and businesses spend valuable income on fuel, and emissions add silently but steadily to Nigeria’s contribution to global warming. In Lagos for instance, the heavy dependence on diesel generators stands out as a major contributor to worsening air pollution, thereby significantly increasing harmful emissions and deepening public health risks across the city.

The economic framing is part of the problem

Most discussions about Nigeria’s electricity crisis understandably focus on economic losses. Unstable power forces firms to self-generate energy, often at massive cost. An estimate says businesses lost over $26 billion annually due to outages and self-generation expenses. But this figure understates the true societal cost, because it rarely accounts for long-term environmental damage and the hidden climate cost. By framing the crisis almost entirely as an economic problem, the search for solutions tends to ignore a vital factor: air quality, climate vulnerability, and environmental health are power issues too. The climate crisis cannot be treated in isolation from the way we produce and consume energy, and Nigeria’s electricity crisis inadvertently shifts the burden from the grid to the atmosphere. A study shows that emissions from diesel-generators are often higher per unit of energy than grid power, worsening urban air quality and adding millions of tons of CO2e annually, while also exposing populations to harmful toxic pollutants that can enter the food chain, degrade ecosystems, and undermine sustainable efforts towards energy transition.

The toll on social services

Nigeria’s power instability extends far beyond the inconvenience of blackouts, hitting the very heart of social service delivery. Hospitals and clinics face frequent disruptions that jeopardize patient care, interrupt critical medical procedures, and compromise the safe storage of vaccines and essential medicines that rely on refrigeration. Inadequate or unpredictable electricity forces medical facilities to rely on costly diesel generators, increasing operational expenses while exposing patients and workers to additional health risks from air pollution. The ripple effect on healthcare infrastructure diminishes trust in public services and amplifies health inequalities, particularly in rural and underserved communities where access to reliable backup power is limited.

Educational institutions are similarly affected, as schools and universities struggle to maintain a consistent learning environment. Digital learning tools, laboratory experiments, and online research platforms depend on reliable electricity; frequent outages disrupt teaching schedules and limit students’ exposure to practical, technology-driven skills. This instability not only hampers educational outcomes but also undermines long-term human capital development, leaving students ill-prepared for the demands of a modern economy. Addressing Nigeria’s epileptic power supply is not simply an energy challenge; it is a social imperative as well, as the quality of health, education, and overall societal development hinges on a reliable and resilient electricity system.

SDGs are still afar off

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 is to achieve universal access to affordable, reliable, and clean energy by 2030. This isn’t just about having a light switch that works. It’s about ensuring that energy is clean, sustainable, and accessible to every community. Nigeria’s story of persistent blackouts, rising generator dependence, and uneven progress on renewables suggests that this target remains far from reach. With just a few years left until the 2030 deadline, the question becomes not whether Nigeria wants universal clean energy, but whether its current path can realistically deliver it. There is promising momentum in renewable energy adoption, especially solar. Solar installations are increasing, demand has grown significantly, and even some farmers are turning to solar irrigation and off-grid systems for reliable power. Yet cost and access are major barriers. High upfront prices and limited financing options make solar systems unattainable for many households and small businesses. Only wealthier consumers typically have the means to invest in rooftop solar or storage batteries, leaving the most vulnerable populations still dependent on dirty, polluting generators. For a truly just energy transition, solar and clean energy solutions must be made affordable and scalable, especially for communities and low-income families who currently have no viable alternatives.

Accountability and call to action

To change this trajectory, Nigeria needs more than technical fixes: it needs political will, accountability, and coordinated action across key stakeholders such as the Federal Ministry of Power, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET), and the state-level Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs). The country must prioritize investment in infrastructure that prevents grid collapse, modernizes grid management, and decentralizes power production. Regulators and power generation companies must work together to enforce standards and expand affordable clean energy access. Civil society, youth groups, and activists must push for transparency in energy spending, environmental impact reporting, and equitable energy policies. International partners and investors such as the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) should attach climate risks and social standards to energy financing, ensuring that commitments to renewables are meaningful and impactful. Every actor has a role to play in solving this crisis, and every day that passes without decisive reform is another day Nigeria’s climate and people pay the price. If Nigeria truly seeks universal, clean, modern energy by 2030 as envisioned in SDG 7, then leaders, communities, and citizens must confront the crisis holistically: stable power isn’t just an economic issue but a climate and human rights imperative. While the lights must come on, they must be clean, sustainable, and equitable for all.

Washing and Hushing

Nigeria’s Climate Partnerships: The Search for Real Impacts

In today’s interconnected world, no country, regardless of size, resources, or demographic advantage, can thrive in isolation. Strategic partnerships and negotiations with foreign governments, multinational institutions, corporations, and civil society are not optional but are critical necessities. For Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and one of its largest economies, the art of collaboration has shaped policy, opened markets, and built bridges to innovation. But while agreements are signed with much ceremony, their true worth must be measured in impact on the everyday lives of Nigerian citizens. It comes down to transparency and accountability.

From rhetoric to real impact

Partnerships play a role that is much more profound than simply attracting foreign investment. Economically, partnerships help bridge funding gaps that many developing nations like Nigeria face when trying to modernize infrastructure, transition energy systems, and scale up climate action. By aligning with global partners, Nigeria taps into financial resources, technical expertise, and innovation networks that can accelerate progress beyond what domestic funding alone could achieve. They help catalyze growth in sectors such as renewable energy, green infrastructure, and climate finance, expanding job opportunities and enabling new businesses to thrive. Politically, these collaborations serve as a testament to Nigeria’s role on the international stage. As nations grapple with climate change, how a country positions itself in global negotiations, climate finance, and cross-border initiatives speaks to its diplomatic maturity, willingness to share responsibility, and readiness to contribute to collective solutions. Standing at global forums with new agreements signals that Nigeria is not a mere observer of global trends but an active participant in shaping them.

Partnerships have the potential to touch the everyday lives of citizens through cleaner air, increased energy access, and economic opportunities that uplift marginalized communities. Yet, this potential is only realized when agreements are not lost in the shelves of government offices but are communicated clearly, understood by the public, and shaped with local inclusion in mind. Too often, discussions of climate finance and carbon markets remain abstract to the average person, even though their outcomes can affect job creation, health outcomes, and community resilience.

Notable climate partnerships with promise

Over the past few years, Nigeria has engaged in a range of strategic negotiations and agreements that touch on economy, environment, technology, and social welfare.One of the most visionary bilateral engagements was a $1 billion agreement signed with Brazil to enhance agriculture, food security, energy cooperation, and defense partnerships. Announced in mid-2025, this agreement aims to strengthen mechanized farming, create service centers, and drive Nigeria toward larger-scale agricultural productivity.

Another notable one is a $200 million agreement between the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and a distributed renewable energy provider backed by international investors with a plan to deploy hundreds of renewable mini-grids to serve rural and peri-urban communities. This effort promises to provide reliable electricity to over a million people, bridging infrastructure shortcomings in power access. At the same time, state governments are stepping into the global sustainability arena. For example, Kano State has signed renewable energy partnerships focused on solar manufacturing, positioning itself as a clean energy hub in West Africa.

Tying into global industrial and climate goals, Nigeria launched a four-year partnership programme with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) to accelerate sustainable economic and industrial development, a strategy designed to diversify the economy and promote inclusive growth. The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) signed multi-stakeholder agreements with government agencies and private renewable energy service companies to expand access to clean energy across underserved communities, aligning with Nigeria’s broader energy transition vision. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) held in Belém, Nigeria and the Government of California signed a five-year clean energy cooperation pact designed to deepen collaboration on renewable energy, sustainable transport, and low-carbon technologies. The agreement includes knowledge exchange on greenhouse gas monitoring, clean aviation research, air quality improvement strategies, and sustainable trade policies. By partnering with a sub-national economy that leads the United States in clean energy policy and innovation, Nigeria is opening doors to best practices, technical research partnerships between universities, collaborations on methane detection and abatement, and shared planning on green ports and sustainable urban systems, among others. It is a type of cooperation that could translate directly into job creation, skills transfer, and actionable climate programmes if it is followed by clear implementation plans and public reporting. These partnerships – stretching from trade and infrastructure to renewable energy and industrial growth – show ambition.

Partnerships and the carbon market framework

Perhaps the most significant policy development in recent Nigerian climate diplomacy is the approval and launch of a National Carbon Market Framework. Approved by President Bola Tinubu ahead of COP30, this framework creates the rules, institutions, and incentives for Nigeria to participate in both domestic and international carbon credit markets. The framework promises the following: a national Carbon Registry will track the issuance and trading of carbon credits; mandatory emissions reporting for companies to improve data quality and accountability; and incentives such as tax exemptions on carbon credit revenue and accelerated investment allowances designed to attract private capital. In addition, the operationalization of the national climate change Fund promises dedicated resources for climate projects. These mechanisms are projected to unlock up to $2.5 to $3 billion in climate finance annually, potentially positioning Nigeria as a key player in carbon trading and climate investment. When viewed alongside a growing number of registered voluntary carbon projects already numbering in the dozens with millions of tons of issued credits, this framework begins to look less like a policy document and more like a platform for climate-driven economic development. But, the essential question for citizens is this: once these markets are operational, how will the benefits be shared? How will revenue be reinvested into communities most at risk from climate impacts? Who oversees the environmental and social integrity of projects, and what safeguards exist against exploitation? These questions cannot be left unanswered.

The key importance of public awareness

A recurring concern across many countries, including Nigeria, is the gap between signing ceremonies and tangible outcomes. Agreements are often celebrated with great fanfare, but follow-through engagements can be obscure, leaving citizens uninformed about progress, delays, or the delivery of promised benefits. Partnerships should not be shrouded in obscurity. Accountability is not just a bureaucratic exercise but a democratic imperative. When deals involve public resources, foreign capital, or national priorities, citizens deserve to know: what commitments were made? What timelines were agreed upon? What milestones have been achieved so far? Are there safeguards against waste, corruption, and mismanagement? Answering these questions openly strengthens trust, ensures that policy serves the people, and enhances the country’s reputation. Periodic public progress reports, accessible project dashboards, or parliamentary oversight briefings could turn agreements from abstract promises into lived progress. When the people are informed and engaged, partnerships cease to be opaque government transactions and become shared national ventures, where community voices, civil society, media, and academia can contribute to course corrections and celebrate successes when due.

The true measure of partnerships

The true test of these collaborations will be found not in announcements but in implementation, transparency, and shared impact. Public awareness must be more than headlines; it must involve accessible reporting, clear narratives about benefits and challenges, and ongoing dialogue with communities, civil society, and youth groups, among other stakeholders. Only then can climate action become a national movement that strengthens social cohesion, economic growth, and environmental stewardship. Partnership is not about importing solutions or outsourcing responsibility. It is about engaging with the world in ways that amplify local strength, build national capacity, and create shared prosperity that everyone can see, feel, and participate in. For Nigeria to truly harness the power of partnerships, it must do more than sign dotted lines. There must be clarity, public reporting, inclusive dialogue, and joint accountability structures that let citizens see and feel the value of the partnerships.