Report: Evolving Fiscal Policies, Structural Imbalances to Shape Real Estate Market in 2026

Dike Onwuamaeze

The Director of Research/Chief Investment Officer of Panterra, Mr. Ayo Ibaru, has projected that Nigeria’s real estate market in 2026 will be shaped by the ever evolving implementation of fiscal policies and the structural imbalances they attempt to resolve.

Ibaru made this projection in Panterra’s report titled ‘2026 Nigeria Real Estate Market Outlook’, which stated that “the new tax framework could improve viability if properly applied.”

The report stated that 2026 is yet another pre-election year in Nigeria and as always there will be implications for the country’s real estate market.

It stated that “as the country navigates another pre-election year, correctly timing the acquisition of completed properties may be more cost effective than waiting for new developments.”

It added that strong conviction and patient capital will be sine qua non to making progress in 2026.

“There will be competing opportunities in mid-market housing, industrial real estate, logistics, warehousing and, for the more ambitious, data centres,” the report said.

The report stated that the real estate market in 2026 would see uneven sub-market growth tampered by pre-election uncertainties.

It said, “Some market analysts see infrastructure led expansion and digital integration driving opportunities. The former remained a trusted pattern; the latter not so much.

“Recent studies underscore the market’s resilience, contributing 5-6 per cent to the GDP. This outlook draws on patterns where pre-election years often witness caution and a slowdown in transaction volumes.”

Drawing from previous pre-election’s experiences, the report said that “market performance in pre-election periods has been marked by subdued activity, delaying commitments.

“Ahead of 2023 elections saw high inflation and policy flux contributions to 20-30 per cent dip in foreign investments. Some anticipate similar fortunes for 2026.

“Still, election related spending will likely boost short-term rentals and commercial spaces, albeit temporarily.

“Long term projects with dependencies on the government will stall due to concerns around policy somersault.

“Still demand for warehousing will remain unfazed by Nigeria’s economic prevarications,” the report said.

It also projected that “land markets in 2026 are on track to appreciate. This will be driven by the aforementioned infrastructure and diaspora inflows. Land scarcity in urban cores will, however, continue to push values further north.”

Regionally, the report forecasted that disparities would see South-west dominating transaction value due to active dynamics regardless of title risks and speculation.  

“In Abuja, land market will really depend on government deployment cycles, the political elite and diplomatic community.

“Port-Harcourt’s land market is likely to resume more stable growth pattern, a likely outcome of the frigid armistice between the current governor and his predecessor.”

The report also projected that residential low-mid income housing would remain undersupplied as affordability issues retain the front and centre positions in 2026.

“The residential market priced for low-middle income earners represents the most significant unmet need. Developers who can successfully navigate financing constraints and reduce construction costs through innovation will likely capture market space.

“The under-supply, however, is alien to the luxury sub-market,” the report said.

It added, “Annual housing supply continues to fall short of requirements. This will likely persist in 2026 as infrastructure spending is prioritised.

“The Renewed Hope Cities and Estates Programme aims to deliver 20,000 housing units annually. It did not meet this target in 2025.”

The report said that in contrast to the undersupplied residential and warehousing sub-markets, the Grade “A” office cohort would face over-supply pressures heading into 2026.

This is not evident in Lagos and in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) for administrative offices though historical precedents whisper caution.

“Grade ‘A’ office space is oversupplied, particularly in Lagos pushing the argument for mixed-use conversations recommended in previous editions of this publication.

Analysts predict rental dips of 5-8 per cent due to the economic recovery phase,” it said.