Missing Links in Nigeria’s Renewable Energy Landscape

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Edited by Oke Epia, E-mail: sostainability01@gmail.com  | WhatsApp: +234 8034000706

Trends and Threads

Nigeria has articulated some of the most detailed climate and energy transition frameworks in Africa. The Energy Transition Plan (ETP) aligned with its Net-Zero by 2060 commitment and the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) are intended to map out how the country will reduce emissions and diversify its energy mix away from fossil fuels while achieving universal energy access. Yet a careful look at the policy landscape tends to suggest gaps and mismatches that need to be addressed.

The policy framework: clarity with caveats

Nigeria’s ETP explicitly defines sectoral decarbonization pathways for power, transport, industry, cooking, and oil and gas. Importantly, the plan recognizes gas as a transition fuel while ramping up renewables such as solar and hydropower. It commits to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, and outlines job creation and poverty reduction as co-benefits of the energy transition. It also sets broad targets for renewable energy penetration and moves away from diesel generators that have dominated electricity supply.

However, the ETP remains largely model-driven rather than implementation-focused. Despite many ambitions, only a small fraction of the financing needed to achieve the transition has been secured to date, the plan itself notes the need for billions of dollars annually, far beyond current public or private commitments. The Energy Transition Office (ETO) is meant to coordinate execution. Similarly, while the ETP and NDC 3.0 provide a roadmap, they fall short of clear accountability and reporting mechanisms. This makes it difficult to assess whether short-term milestones (e.g., renewable share by 2030) are being met.

Solar leads but far below expectations

The most visible government-driven renewable energy progress has been in solar electrification and off-grid solutions. The Rural Electrification Agency (REA), through the Nigeria Electrification Programme (NEP), has reportedly deployed about 176 mini-grids and impacted about 7.8 million Nigerians with off-grid solar and standalone systems.

These distributed renewable projects are essential and represent a concrete implementation of policy. Their positive effects include reduced reliance on diesel generators in rural areas and increased energy access. But this is only the tip of the clean energy iceberg: solar projects remain small compared with Nigeria’s enormous energy access gap as an estimated 86 million Nigerians still lack reliable access to electricity. Large-scale solar and grid-connected renewable capacities remain limited and there is no clear data showing rapid deployment of utility-scale solar integrated with the national grid, and many planned projects have faced delays or financing challenges. The absence of a publicly accessible results framework makes it difficult to validate claims of achievement.

Nigeria’s Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES), a $750 million program funded by the World Bank, aims to expand decentralized renewable infrastructure to over 17.5 million Nigerians. This signifies a larger strategic push, but it is still in early stages and has not yet delivered widespread measurable outcomes across all target zones. Additionally, grid instability—long a hallmark of Nigeria’s power system – continues to hamper large-scale renewable integration because solar and wind require robust grid management and storage capacity that are currently lacking. This infrastructural deficit limits how much utility-scale renewable energy can be absorbed and distributed without frequent outages.

Fragmented projects are part of the problems  

The Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) formally recognizes renewable energy through its subsidiary, NNPC New Energy Limited, which is meant to drive renewable and low-carbon initiatives in line with Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan. However, in practice, this renewable energy mandate remains largely dormant. There is no clear, publicly verifiable evidence of NNPC owning, operating, or financing significant renewable energy projects such as large-scale solar or wind power. Instead, NNPC’s transition efforts are mostly concentrated on gas-based activities, including gas commercialization and flare reduction. While these actions may lower emissions compared to diesel or crude oil use, they do not amount to empirical renewable energy deployment and fall short of the deep decarbonization required for Nigeria’s net-zero 2060 goal. The absence of visible renewable investment from Nigeria’s most powerful energy institution creates a gap in the transition architecture, leaving agencies like the REA to drive renewables at the margins. Without clear targets, capital allocation, and transparent reporting on renewable projects, NNPC’s renewable energy function risks remaining a symbolic structure rather than a driver of Nigeria’s clean energy transition.

Gas and CNG: Transition fuel or policy placeholders?

Natural gas holds a central, contested role in Nigeria’s energy narrative. The ETP explicitly positions gas as a transition fuel that can provide baseload power and improve energy reliability while solar and other renewables scale. Consumption of gas is anticipated to increase initially (about 25 percent above 2019 levels by 2030) before declining as the country approaches net-zero goals.

Nigeria has reiterated commitments to end routine gas flaring by 2030 and to reduce methane emissions by 60 percent by 2031 – directly addressing one of the country’s most carbon and pollution-intensive practices. Notable interventions such as the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialization Programme (NGFCP) and the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Initiative are not without their challenges. For instance, capturing flare gas and converting it into productive energy requires complex financing, engineering, and infrastructure construction. While gas is seen as a transition fuel, its role as a core energy source well into the 2030s may delay substantial decarbonization, unless paired with carbon capture or renewable replacement pathways. In any case, gas flaring has historically defied enforcement, with decades-old anti-flaring laws previously failing to get compliance, raising a critical question about regulatory capacity and political will. The rhetoric of flaring reduction must therefore be tested against sustained enforcement, not just announced targets. This distinction is often overlooked in official narratives.

Similarly, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiatives, referenced in some government publications, show intent to promote cleaner fuels for transport, but implementation has been patchy. While there has been some growth in CNG stations and conversions, particularly in major cities, the network remains insufficient relative to demand, and reliable data on uptake and impact is sparse. Crucially, gas remains carbon-emitting, and Nigeria’s commitment to net-zero means gas must eventually be phased out or paired with carbon capture, neither of which appears to be feasible in the near future.The partnership between UNDP and REA has been heralded as strategic, focusing on skills development, innovation, and policy reform. However, much of this partnership appears concentrated on capacity building and future potential, rather than large-scale deployment and infrastructure results that meaningfully shift the energy mix today. This reveals a common tension in Nigeria’s renewable agenda: many initiatives are well-meaning and conceptually sound, but they produce more studies, reports and commitments than measurable deployment and results. Renewable financing vehicles, like the newly announced $2 billion National Climate Change Fund, and green bonds have promise, but they need clear pipelines to bankable projects and transparency on disbursements.

Disconnect between policy and delivery

Nigeria’s ETP identifies clear objectives and sectors where action is needed. Yet, there is no robust national tracking system showing progress against interim targets (e.g., installed capacity and share of renewables in the grid by year-on-year milestones). Grid reforms have lagged, and distribution/transmission losses remain high, undermining the impact of any new generation capacity, whether renewable or gas-fired. Technical capacity shortages in the renewable sector continue to limit long-term sustainability and local ownership of clean energy systems. Financing remains far below what the ETP projects as necessary, leaving many planned projects unfunded. Public reporting on implemented projects versus targets is inconsistent or absent which shows poor monitoring and transparency problems. Renewable and clean fuel targets lack enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance by government agencies and private stakeholders.

In summary, Nigeria’s energy transition narrative is neither fully hopeful nor entirely disappointing. Real interventions exist: distributed solar, flare gas capture initiatives, regulatory frameworks, international partnerships, and strategic policy alignment. But execution gaps, financing shortfalls, infrastructure bottlenecks, and weak progress reporting risk relegating well-crafted plans to what they too often have been: plans on paper rather than engines of systemic change.

For the country to genuinely transition toward net-zero and a more resilient energy system, the critical inflection point lies not in drafting high-level frameworks, but in bridging the gap between strategy and reality, with transparent accountability, expanded financing for large-scale renewables, grid modernization, and enforceable regulatory action that drives measurable emissions reductions. Only then can Nigeria’s energy transition move from vision to verifiable impact.

Spotlight

Wither NASENI’s Solar Cell Production Factory?

As Nigeria charts its path toward a sustainable and affordable energy future, the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) seems to have positioned itself at a critical intersection of innovation, climate action, and home-grown sustainability solutions. But are the agency’s optics being translated into real, tangible and sustained progress?
A project that captured national attention was the foundation laying of what was touted as West Africa’s first solar cell production factory in Gora, Nasarawa State in March 2023. The groundbreaking event was performed by then Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. This ambitious initiative, designed to anchor local solar manufacturing and reduce the cost of solar energy, was celebrated as a potential game-changer in Nigeria’s energy sector and a major step toward reducing reliance on diesel generators and expanding renewable solutions. Yet, almost three years on, stakeholders and citizens alike are left with pressing questions: What progress has been made since 2023? Is the factory operational, under construction, or facing delays? What structures are in place to guarantee continuity beyond announcements? Has this factory moved beyond groundbreaking to actual production? What concrete milestones and timelines have been published? Clear, regular reporting on progress, financing, and implementation mechanisms is necessary to confirm that this project isn’t stalled or forgotten but demonstrates seriousness about energy transition delivery.
Nevertheless, NASENI continues to invest in energy solutions. It is reportedly training personnel to install 100,000 solar home systems nationwide aiming to expand off-grid access and rural electrification. The agency’s solar portfolio has also reportedly grown, upgrading its capacity from 22 MW to 50 MW with plans to scale further, while also looking into solar irrigation technology to support sustainable agriculture.
From a governance perspective, NASENI’s activities are noteworthy. Its work demonstrates a willingness to innovate and align with Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, which aims for cleaner energy integration and universal access. However, it doesn’t end here, transparency and accountability must accompany ambition. Citizens need accessible and regular updates on flagship projects, budget allocations, operational challenges, and success metrics. How is progress measured? Are timelines and deliverables publicly posted? What safeguards ensure continuity beyond political cycles and leadership changes?
At SOStainability, we raise these posers not to question NASENI’s credibility but to promote strong governance, public trust, and collective progress. We look forward to NASENI doing even more, fulfilling its energy commitments. When innovation is paired with accountability, Nigeria’s energy transition becomes not just possible, but exemplary for Africa.

Perspective

Gains of Tinubu’s Green Marketing at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 

By Rep (Sir) Sam Onuigbo

Two things made Nigeria’s attendance at this year’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week Summit (ADSW 2026) very remarkable. One, it showed how the sequence of actions by Nigeria’s leader, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, undergirded his determination to pave a promising future for the country’s energy transition agenda.

Secondly, the fact of the President’s consistent attendance, which made it easy for him to attract the hosting of Investopia 2026 to Nigeria, and the unveiling of Nigeria’s Carbon Market Framework, combined to make the country the cynosure of all delegations at the seven-day event.

The Investopia, which is expected to be co-hosted by Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates, in Lagos in February this year, will showcase Nigeria as an investors’ haven, especially its pedigree as home to over 250 million persons and Africa’s most populous nation. Bouyed by its significant population of well-educated youths and easy access to ECOWAS and the rest of Africa, Nigeria indeed is the go-to place as far as access to market and networking is concerned.

Although it came at a great personal cost, I was happy I made it to the Abu Dhabi meet, where the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Assembly preceded the talks on the Sustainability Week. As I sat through the President’s address, I quickly recalled his 2025 observations. The President had declared at the ADSW2025: “The fight against Climate Change is not merely an environmental necessity, but a global economic opportunity to reshape the trajectory of our continent and the global energy landscape.” Further, he stressed that “to succeed, we must innovate, collaborate and decisively collaborate as a global community.”

I recalled also how in the course of his inaugural address at Eagle Square, Abuja, on May 29, 2023, the President had stated: “Our government shall also work with the National Assembly to fashion an omnibus jobs and prosperity bill. This bill will give our administration the policy space to embark on labour-intensive infrastructural improvements, encourage light industry, and provide improved social services for the poor, elderly, and vulnerable.”

At every turn in the activities of the ADSW 2026, it was evident that President Tinubu’s consistent push for environmental renewal undergirded his belief that energy transition was the key to future prosperity. That could explain why, during his 2024 Budget Speech in November 2023, he declared that “we have strategically made provisions to leverage private capital for big-ticket infrastructure projects in energy, transportation, and other sectors. “This marks a critical step towards diversifying our energy mix, enhancing efficiency and fostering the development of renewable energy sources…”

Of course, knowing that here was a President who signed into law the Electricity Bill barely eight days after taking office, made me recall the rigours the House of Representatives and I, under the efficient leadership of Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, went through to deliver Nigeria’s signature law, the Climate Change Act 2021.

So far, the Nigerian leader has continued to build on that foundation to catapult the country’s profile in the emerging global energy economy. And, all that showed during the ADSW 2026. By assenting to the Electricity Act of 2023, the President dismantled decades of suffocating centralised control over power and invited states and the private sector to finally build. It was the first tangible signal that this administration might approach its promises as a blueprint, not a bromide.

What is more, as Nigeria approached the COP28 climate summit, the directive to relevant agencies was sharp and singular: secure substantial international funding and partnerships to bolster the national energy transition plan. The mandate was to move from advocacy on the global stage to securing concrete, actionable commitments.

At the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, therefore, the President reinforced my conviction that Nigeria’s prosperity depends on a fundamental shift to clean, reliable energy. ADSW showed that indeed, the polished global conversation had finally moved from declarations to the gritty mechanics of delivery. Verging on the core of this progressive conversation is the continuing search for how nations are building on their ambitious promises. Nigeria’s leader did not disappoint. President Tinubu was there live, not as a passive potentate, but as a leader actively involved and leading the charge, providing directions and proffering workable strategies.

The fact of his 2025 and 2026 consecutive physical presence did much to impact the atmosphere in a way no policy paper could. It signaled to every investor, diplomat, and executive present that Nigeria’s energy transition is not a side project managed by mid-level officials, but a top priority owned and driven from the very highest level of government.

“Nexus to Next: All Systems Go” was the theme of the ADSW 2026. To Nigeria, that phrase carried a particular, almost painful, weight. Our systems—the grid, the financial architecture, the regulatory environment, energy, human capital—have infamously not been “going” for a long time. Our message was that we are finally, seriously, rewiring them, and we are using the global green transition as the master blueprint for this overhaul.

We came forward with proofs and specifics: That the 2023 Electricity Act is no longer just a landmark legislation. It is the thriving legal bedrock that allows a company to construct a solar mini-grid for a hospital in rural Abia, Nasarawa, Borno, etc., without pleading for federal permission. We are talking about a decisive shift from theoretical potentials to practical, on-the-ground projects.

In plain terms, it could be seen that Nigeria was particular about energy financing. Our pitch was built for the financial pragmatists in the room. We did not ask for aid or concessionary pity; we presented a business case, complete with the instruments we had already built and tested. A Sovereign Green Bond, oversubscribed by 82 per cent, was cited as proof that the market was listening. A five-hundred-million-dollar Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) was highlighted as capital that is well established, managed, and ready to deploy. A seven-hundred-and-fifty-million-dollar programme with the World Bank, already in motion, aims to bring clean electricity access to over seventeen million Nigerians. The takeaway from ADSW 2026 for other countries is that Nigeria has progressed from making pledges to creating the financial machinery to fulfil them. The country has clearly set the structure for global connectivity and revenue inflow.

The gamechanger

It was a bang: The signing of the Nigeria-United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), came through as the game-changer. Here was a hard-negotiated and ratified trade deal. The UAE will eliminate tariffs on over seven thousand Nigerian products, and Nigeria will do the same for about six thousand UAE products. This agreement also signals the creation of qualitative jobs, particularly for Nigeria’s young population, in agriculture, real estate, digital banking, retail, and infrastructure financing. Can you beat that? Consider what that means for a moment. To a furniture manufacturer in Lagos, a certified cocoa processor in Ondo, or an assembler of electronics in Nnewi, one of the most significant barriers to entering one of the world’s most affluent and connected markets has just been dismantled.

This is the most decisive policy push for a post-oil, industrialised economy I have witnessed in a generation. It will masterfully transform Nigeria’s green transition from an internal development goal into a compelling global trade and investment opportunity. In the conference hall, you could almost see the recalibration happening in real-time behind the eyes of the assembled investors and partners.

Yet, amidst this powerful forward thrust, the most intellectually resonant moment for me was one of direct and necessary challenge: President Tinubu turned to the custodians of global development finance, reminding them that their prevailing model has become fundamentally flawed. He argued persuasively that shackling developing nations with ever more sovereign debt to build the very solar grids, climate-resilient agriculture, and infrastructure the whole world needs is neither morally fair nor operationally sustainable. President Tinubu’s proposal for innovative blended finance was, in essence, a clarion call to rebalance the scales of risk. It framed the conversation not as a plea for concessionary terms, but as a strategic renegotiation of the partnership between global capital and emerging economies.

The audacity of this position carried significant weight precisely because of the groundwork he had just laid. For the preceding hour, his presentation had systematically dismantled the old narrative. He had not outlined a list of needs; he had catalogued a portfolio of ready opportunities, established governance frameworks, and concrete financial instruments. He had demonstrated that Nigeria arrived at the table not as a supplicant, but as a serious and credible counterparty, fundamentally changing the context of the tasks that followed.

Lessons brought forward

Nigeria’s presence at the ADSW 2026 had rich lessons. First, credibility is a currency minted through consecutive, verifiable action. Nigeria’s voice carried an unfamiliar weight in those rooms because it was backed by a trail of veritable policies: The Climate Change Act, the Electricity Act, the oversubscribed green bonds, the National Climate Change Fund, our Pilot Electric Mobility Project, National Carbon Market Activation Policy, etcetera. The President’s personal stewardship on that global stage was the final, unmistakable stamp on that currency.

Second, true progress lies in deliberate connection. We are finally, seriously attempting to systematically link power generation to job creation, our vast rare earth minerals to domestic manufacturing, and foreign investment to the development of local skills. This is the integrated, forward-thinking industrial strategy we disastrously failed to build during the oil boom. The green transition, ironically, is our nation’s second chance to get it right.

Finally, and most importantly, there is more crucial work to be done. If Abu Dhabi was the international exhibition hall where we displayed the blueprint and the prototypes, our country has become the workshop floor where we must now manufacture the future at scale. The landmark trade deal with the UAE is a paper victory if our businesses cannot innovate, scale, and produce goods of competitive quality to seize the opportunity. The billion-dollar funds are empty vessels without a robust, transparent pipeline of professionally managed, bankable projects to absorb the capital.

To me, as the sponsor of Nigeria’s Climate Change Act 2021, leaving the fine city of Abu Dhabi, my mind revolved around challenges the country faces in ensuring that we meet the lofty expectations the global energy community has come to place on us due to President Tinubu’s high-water offerings. With the President’s commitment and determination, we can rest assured that come COP31, the world will be pleased to learn how far Nigeria and its energy transition advocate, President Bola Tinubu, have doubled down on its successes.

They call it “All Systems Go”. From my vantage point in Abu Dhabi, it seems Nigeria has, against considerable odds and history, managed to get its key systems to the Launchpad and begun the ignition sequence.

President Tinubu’s closing statement, “Let me close by reassuring the international business community that Nigeria is ready for business,” captures the mind of a leader who is confident in his strategies. A bright future awaits.

*Rep Sir. Onuigbo, a member of the Governing Board of the North East Development Commission (NEDC), attended the ADSW2026 in Abu Dhabi