2027: If Not Tinubu, WHO?

By Mobolaji Sanusi

“It’s not opinion polls that determine the outcome of elections, it’s votes in ballot boxes.”—-Nicola Sturgeon

Periodic elections are essential components of any constitutional government. It gives room for change and multiplicity of choices. After all, it is trite that no one is good enough to perpetually rule others without their consent or renewed approval. That is why in about thirteen months’ time, Nigerians of voting age will troop out to vote in a new president or renew the tenure of the incumbent president.

In view of this, a year’s interval is not too far a time for a columnist to hazard a guess on what the leadership circle of his country portends. By February 2027, it is either that the country has a reelected president in Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu or a mint president-elect would doubtfully emerge on the horizon.

As of today, even though the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has yet to lift the lid on electioneering campaigns, what is indisputable is that presidential aspirants, including the incumbent president are already plotting various schemes/strategies on how to ensure victory at the polls, come 2027.

The question to ask: Why is the polity of familiar faces of opposition so agitated about dethroning the current president? We have the roll of opposition presidential contestants: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Ahmed Datti, Rotimi Amaechi amongst others are those pushing forward to slug it out against the president. Two or three of them are veteran presidential candidates, very few are contenders while others are mere loudmouths, out only to add the prefix of ‘ex-presidential aspirant’ to their political profiles. As these aspirants have the constitutional right to aspire to be president, it shouldn’t equally be lost that the incumbent president also has the legal/legitimate right, under the nation’s grundnorm to seek for a reelection.

Ours being a politically plural society, such multiplicity of aspirants gives the people the latitude to make preferential decisions amongst the political parties’ teeming aspirants. The main issue that yours sincerely has with these hoards of familiar presidential aspirants is whether they have something different or better to offer from what we currently have in the country; or are they just seeking an opportunity to replace the incumbent for the sake of doing it or they are just embarking on a mere pursuit of longstanding personal ambition at the detriment of the general wellbeing of the country?

To nurse an ambition is legal but such becomes a national burden when it gives little or no hope of changing the vilified existing status quo ante. Is there anything new on the horizon for Nigerians from these hordes of opposition presidential aspirants plotting day and night on how to wrest power from the current president?

Of course, it is an integral part of democratic licence for anyone to state that President Tinubu is not the best leader to have been produced by this country. It is equally fair and just to point out as well that the president is just in the midterm of his first tenure thereby making it safe to infer that he is not the worst to have emerged as the leader of this country.

From a dispassionate point of view, it could, when pushed further without disputations, be stated that amongst those serious contenders that are currently parading themselves in all the eighteen currently registered political parties in the country, he remains arguably above all, if not fairly better-with empirical proofs.

Atiku Abubakar is one of the leading contenders from the north trudging forward for the nation’s number one slot come 2027. He’s a perennial contestant for the position. Peter Obi who made an unexpected good showing in 2023 has also thrown his hat into the ring. Unlike what obtained in 2023 when the Labour Party platform was united behind him, the existing political equation looks cloudy for him in the worker’s party or in the party that he newly defected to.

Rotimi Amaechi’s aspiration remains a boast with no realistic flesh to back it up. The trio are members of the opposition African Democratic Congress(ADC). Ahmed Datti has also chosen to labour for his presidential aspiration with the Labour Party. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party(NNPP), is too confused at the moment to effectively decide whether to contest for the coveted seat or deputise for a stronger candidate from another political party. The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is so far bereft of any known serious presidential aspirant with the only known thing about it being that Nyesom Wike and Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state are fervently in self-destructive contention to procure an undertaker for the once national domineering party.

What new policy ideas are these opposition presidential aspirants bringing before Nigerians? If given the chance by Nigerians, is there any likelihood of them making any significant changes from what currently obtains under the incumbent leadership of the country? Or will it be the usual excuses of successive administrations blaming their predecessors for their governance shortcomings? Isn’t it better to allow the incumbent government continue so as to perfect the problems of the country that has now taken it almost three years to understudy?

One thing is very clear: During the campaigns leading to the 2023 presidential election, two of the aforementioned aspirants actually espoused their support for Tinubu’s two main policies of ‘brutish’ subsidy removal and the stoppage of rent-seeking dual forex trading rates with its concomitant devaluation effect. These two policies have earned more revenues for the country as much as stabilized the nation’s exchange rate system. Notwithstanding, the former comes with its harsh consequences on the economy and the latter’s devaluation effect has very crushing effect on the populace. Undeniably too, all the contenders in 2023 agreed and still agree that the two purportedly harsh policies are inevitable. If they agreed then and still believe in these two hard knocking policies, it is pertinent to ask what new things they plan to do if given an opportunity to be president of the country by Nigerians?

Atiku, a formidable northerner, is the most potent of all the upcoming 2027 presidential contenders but can he be entrusted with power? Yours sincerely, like every other discerning Nigerians, can easily relate with how Atiku’s former boss, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo profiled his person in his (Obasanjo’s) book; My Watch, Volume 2, Page 31-32: “Obasanjo on Atiku: “What I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgment, his belief and reliance on marabouts, his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest.”

Again, same Atiku is in charge of Obasanjo’s privatization policy that he cleverly schewed to his advantage. Under Obasanjo/Atiku’s hypocritical leadership, Nigeria’s hard earned $16billion was wasted on electricity production without a single result to show for such spending….and with no consequences on these two shameless leaders.

Underscoring Nigeria’s significant loss from the Obasanjo/Atiku $16billion forex mismanagement is a 2023 World Bank Energy Progress Report berating Nigeria for having the largest electricity access deficit in the world in 2022. The report estimates that a staggering 86 million Nigerians were still living without a reliable power supply. Obasanjo/Atiku’s power money misappropriation is responsible for the inconsistent electricity supply that Nigerians and her productive sectors are facing today. How can such man(Obasanjo’s administration’s ally), expect our countrymen to take him serious in 2027?

More importantly: Can such a man be trusted by Nigerians to lead them post 2027? Should Obasanjo, his boss, also be rated as a formidable political consultant to any sincere presidential aspirants/Tinubu traducers trooping to his Abeokuta Presidential Library residence for advice today? Your guess is as good as mine.

Nigerians also need to be reminded that Atiku was an ungrateful temporary ally and beneficiary of Tinubu’s political large-heartedness in this same country. As vice-president to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, Tinubu rescued him from the political decimation plan of his boss at a period he served as governor of Lagos state. Atiku was helpless and hopelessly standing at the mercy of Obasanjo at that point in history. Tinubu also gave Atiku the Action Congress Party platform to contest for the first time of his being a presidential candidate of any political party in the country.

In the entire country at that time, it was only Tinubu that stood in opposition and survived Obasanjo’s undemocratic antics during that better forgotten democratic history of this country. When other governors including those of the then Alliance For Democracy fell for Obasanjo’s bait that later unexpectedly threw them out of power, it was only Tinubu that remained the last man standing, and still standing. It was also Tinubu that became the rallying point of not only the progressive governors that were thrown out of power but other political office holders in Obasanjo’s party who were one way or the other not treated fairly by the shenanigan democratic system thrown up at that period.

Everything within and outside the book, including the deployment of unorthodox measures, were explored to get Tinubu out of power in 2003 and especially 2007 so that his preferred candidate will not succeed him as governor.

In Lagos, the PDP candidate during Obasanjo’s presidency, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, who spearheaded the dirtiest governorship contest against Tinubu’s hegemony in the centre of excellence is today rooting for the man. His son, Babajide Obanikoro hobnobs with the Tinubu political family and actually got elected to the House of Representatives even though he currently serves under Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos state. Oluseye Ogunlewe, then minister of works who deployed his position with the special backing of the Obasanjo presidency to turn Lagos into the political hotbed of the country is also now with Tinubu today. Equally, one of his sons is presently running his second term as chairman of a local government in Lagos State. In far away Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of that state and also a former ally of the incumbent is in a quandary because of the Tinubu political pull/attraction which precedes his becoming the president of this country. His Kano state governor, assembly members, local government councils’ chairmen and House of Representatives’ members have all resigned from NNPP as at Friday. The Tinubu-Pull is reverberating round the country as we look forward to 2027.

Laughably, an Obasanjo that empirical evidence has shown to be politically inferior to Tinubu in democratic tactics/strategy, is the person that adversarial politicians that are opposed to Tinubu becoming president/seeking for reelection, now run to for political refuge/ideas on how to remove the master strategist from power in 2027. Atiku that Obasanjo says is not fit to rule this country is, for conspiratorial reasons, now seeking the former president’s blessing.

Peter Obi is also seeking Obasanjo’s support to become the president. Yet, an Obasanjo who in 1999, 2003, 2007 and possibly till date, could not win his polling unit and ward is now a political consultant to opposition presidential contestants. This is laughable, indeed.

Hate or love Tinubu, the reality is that there’s hardly any notable political figures in the country today that has not directly or indirectly benefited from his fountain of political wisdom. Yet, most of those that are now in the opposition bloc are up in arms saying the man should not go for a second term-sadly without proffering any superior policy ideas to Nigerians. Some of them who served as governors of their respective states did not match Tinubu’s achievements as the directing mind of Lagos state.

Whenever they are asked why Tinubu should not go for reelection and they are always quick to refer to insecurity and high poverty rate in the land; they enjoy saying that the hardship being witnessed in the country is a consequence of Tinubu’s audaciously harsh economic policies. Once again, let us ask: What is it that they plan to do differently? Judging from their antecedents, nothing but mere media enunciation…

What Nigerians need is either fresh faces imbued with fresh air or a realistic continuation of current reforms by Tinubu who is expected with time to be able to correct his initiated harsh policies/initiatives and take blame or praises at the end of it all, God willing in 2031.

Yours sincerely is not in any way or form contesting the fact that standard of living in the country is miserable or that there is no insecurity. The truth is however that there’re ongoing efforts to remedy this economic and insecurity maladies. And finally, the historical antecedents of opposition presidential aspirants on the political turfs at the moment have shown us that none, in good conscience, can be said to have the selflessness to salvage the situation. Nigerians should say no to blame-game and yes to continuation. My sincere and humble submission for this week.

•Sanusi, former MD/CEO of Lagos State Signage & Advertisement Agency is currently managing partner at AMS Reliable Solicitors.(07011117777 – Text messages Only).