IMF: Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Reforms Beginning to Yield Results

• Upgrades 2026 economic growth outlook to 4.4%, 4.1% for 2027

• Nonye Ayeni: Non-oil exports hit $6.1bn

• Exports to ECOWAS declined to $271.26m on exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger

Ndubuisi Francis, James Emejo in Abuja and Nume Ekeghe in Lagos
 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday said Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms were beginning to deliver tangible results, reflecting improved stability and a gradually strengthening growth outlook.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), titled, “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces,” IMF upgraded Nigeria’s growth projection to 4.4 per cent, representing an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its October WEO.

Economic growth was projected to moderate slightly to 4.1 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, also marginally higher than earlier estimates, underscoring growing confidence in the reform trajectory.

The latest projections emerged on the same day Executive Director/Chief Executive, Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, disclosed that the country’s non-oil export reached an all-time high of about $6.1 billion in 2025.

Ayeni said the performance represented a year-on-year increase of about 11.5 per cent, compared to the over $5.46 billion recorded in 2024.

IMF stated that the improved outlook came amid a broader reassessment of economic prospects across Sub-Saharan Africa, where the fund also raised growth expectations.

The region was now projected to expand by 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, reflecting upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the fund’s previous forecasts.

Speaking at a hybrid press briefing in Washington yesterday, Division Chief in IMF’s Research Department, Deniz Igan, said the upgrades reflected a combination of domestic policy adjustments and supportive external conditions.

According to Igan, commodity-exporting economies across the region have benefited from firmer global prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee, providing an important boost to export earnings and fiscal revenues.

She stated that several African countries were key exporters of the commodities, amplifying the impact of favourable price movements.

More critically for Nigeria, IMF highlighted that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts were beginning to take hold in some of the region’s largest economies.

Igan cited Nigeria and Ethiopia as examples where policy reforms aimed at restoring balance through tighter monetary conditions, exchange rate adjustments, and broader fiscal measures were starting to improve economic predictability.

She stated, “Sub-Saharan Africa is another region where we recorded upgrades to our growth forecasts for 2025. Growth is now projected at 4.4 per cent, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than our earlier estimate.

“For 2026 and 2027, we expect growth of 4.6 per cent, representing a cumulative upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared with our October projections.

“These upgrades are driven by three main factors. First is the strength in commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee, commodities for which several countries in the region are major exporters.”

Igan added, “Second, macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to yield results in key economies, notably Ethiopia and Nigeria. Third, ongoing structural reforms in another major regional economy, South Africa, are also supporting the improved outlook.

“Together, this combination of favourable commodity price movements and a more predictable and stable macroeconomic environment has strengthened the region’s growth prospects.”

She said, “In addition, global financial conditions have been more supportive than expected. External borrowing costs have declined and, overall, conditions have improved relative to October, contributing to the upward revisions.”

Beyond domestic reforms, IMF said global financial conditions had been more supportive than previously expected. It said external borrowing costs had eased, improving access to financing and reducing pressure on highly indebted economies.

Compared with conditions in October, the fund said the external environment had become marginally more favourable, contributing to the upward revisions in growth projections.

However, the fund cautioned that downside risks remained significant, particularly for low-income and fragile economies.

Igan warned that anticipated cuts in international development assistance could weigh on growth and social spending in vulnerable countries. In addition, any sudden tightening or correction in global financial conditions could reverse recent gains, especially for economies still adjusting to reform-induced pressures.

She added, “That said, risks remain elevated. These include anticipated cuts in international development assistance, which could disproportionately affect low-income and fragile economies, particularly within the region.

“A potential tightening or correction in global financial conditions, as previously mentioned, would also pose significant downside risks.”

Nigeria’s Non-Oil Exports Hit $6.1 Billion in 2025

Executive Director/Chief Executive, Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, yesterday, disclosed that the country’s non-oil export reached an all-time high of about $6.1 billion in 2025.

Ayeni said the performance represented a year-on-year increase of about 11.5 per cent compared to the over $5.46 billion recorded in 2024.

Addressing journalists in Abuja on the performance of non-oil export for 2025 and 2026 outlook, the NEPC chief executive said the figure represented the highest non-oil export value achieved in the country for formally documented trade since the inception of the council.

She said the performance beat “our own record”, and underscored the growing resilience and relevance of the non-oil export sector to the economy.

However, exports to the 11 ECOWAS member countries totalled 1.23 million metric tons, valued at $271.26 million, constituting 4.46 per cent of total export value. This represented a 13.08 per cent decrease compared to $312.080 million in 2024, attributable to the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the ECOWAS community, according to the NEPC boss.

Ayeni said, “This outstanding performance is not the total story, as a lot of exports still go out informally through our various borders. NEPC, in partnership with the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and other stakeholders, is working hard to mainstream informal trade.”

She said under her watch, the council contributed immensely to the current performance, as the federal government agency with the mandate to promote the development of non-oil exports and help diversify the economy away from oil.

Ayeni also attributed the success to various initiatives and programmes by the council, working with exporters and other stakeholders, and building their capacity and equipping them with the tools and skills required to compete effectively in the global market from farm gate to market.

She hailed the doggedness and determination of exporters who, despite different headwinds and challenges, contributed significantly to the growth of the sector.

The NEPC chief said non-oil exports reached markets across 120 countries, with the Netherlands accounting for 17.53 per cent, Brazil 10.35 per cent, and India 7.63 per cent of non-oil exports.

The three countries emerged as the top three destinations by value in the year under review.

In addition, export to the Netherlands increased by 32.46 per cent, with products including cocoa beans, cocoa butter, sesame seeds, and others, while export to Brazil increased by 19.07 per cent.

In volume terms, total non-oil exports stood at 8.02 million metric tonnes, reflecting a 10 per cent increase compared to the 7.29 million metric tonnes recorded in the previous year.

The growth in both value and volume demonstrated improved export activity across multiple value chains and market destinations, Ayeni said.

She said the country exported a total of 281 non-oil products, cutting across agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, industrial inputs, and solid minerals—reflecting gradual progress toward value addition and broader product representation in global markets.

She said Nigeria also exported 967,397.94 metric tons valued at $206.941 million, representing 3.40 per cent of total non-oil export to 25 other African countries outside ECOWAS, bringing total African export destinations to 36 countries.

The figures demonstrated increasing non-oil export activities and affirmed that AfCFTA held the key to intra-African trade, connecting 54 countries with over 1.3 billion people, she added.

In terms of products, cocoa and its derivatives, urea, cashew, sesame seed, gold dore, aluminium ingots, copper ingots, soya beans and meal, and rubber emerged top-performing non-oil export products.

On the outlook for 2026, Ayeni said, “Indeed, 2026 promises to be a great year for non-oil exports. At NEPC, we remain resolute and committed to driving up the volume and value of non-oil exports and expanding market access for sustainable and inclusive economic growth and to continue to align with the Renewed Hope Agenda of Mr. President for job creation and poverty alleviation.”