Deepening Poverty Report Nigeria Must Confront

The recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, warning that poverty levels in Nigeria are set to worsen sharply in 2026, alongside the World Bank’s, presents an opportunity to the federal and state governments to take urgent and coordinated action to address the crisis, Davidson Iriekpen writes 

The new report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, which projects that no fewer than 141 million Nigerians will live in poverty in 2026, should jolt the federal and state governments into action.

The report, published in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, and titled: ‘Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth,’ stated that recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilising the economy have yet to translate into tangible welfare gains for households.

PwC warned that weak real income growth, combined with persistently high living costs, will push millions of Nigerians deeper into poverty for the next two years, even as headline inflation is expected to moderate. Energy costs, logistics expenses, and exchange-rate pass-through will continue to keep food and essential goods prices high, the report said.

The firm estimates that the poverty rate will climb to 62 per cent this year, a stark indicator that easing inflation alone will not translate into improved living standards.

As a result, the report noted that most Nigerians are unlikely to see wage or income increases that meaningfully keep pace with rising costs, leaving low-income households especially exposed to economic shocks.

Without strong job creation, productivity improvements, and adequate social protection, it added, efforts to reduce poverty may remain out of reach. The firm also highlighted insecurity in food-producing regions and climate-related shocks as additional factors sustaining high food prices.

Food accounts for up to 70 per cent of total consumption among poorer Nigerians, leaving them highly exposed to food price increases. With food inflation remaining elevated, these households are disproportionately affected by price shocks.

According to experts, rising poverty levels pose significant risks to Nigeria’s economic stability and growth prospects. A larger share of the population struggling to meet basic needs could weaken domestic consumption, limit productivity gains, and strain public finances.

The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update had also shared a similar view. The lender noted that the absolute number of people living in poverty has increased sharply, from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025, meaning nearly 62 per cent of the population now lives below the poverty line. 

Earlier estimates showed about 115 million Nigerians in poverty in 2023, rising to around 129 million in 2024, indicating that about 14 million people fell into poverty in just one year.

The multilateral lender projected that the poverty rate will peak at 62 per cent in 2026, equivalent to about 141 million people, before dipping to 61% in 2027, or roughly 140 million Nigerians, the first predicted reversal in nearly a decade.

For millions, especially in rural and northern regions, prospects of relief remain distant, as food inflation, structural inequality, and weak social protection systems continue to deepen hardship.

In 2018/19, the Nigeria Living Standards Survey estimated poverty at 40 per cent, or 81 million people. By 2022/23, that figure had surged to 56 per cent, about 113 million Nigerians. This escalation coincided with falling consumption, weak growth, and soaring inflation. Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption per person fell by nearly seven per cent, with urban households hit hardest.

“Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7%, especially in urban areas, while poverty rose from 40% (81 million people) to a projected 61% (139 million people) by 2025, with three-quarters of the increase occurring before 2023,” the World Bank said.

The Presidency, however, had disputed the figures. The Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said on X (formerly Twitter) that the statistics were “unrealistic” and should be “properly contextualised” within global poverty measurement frameworks.

Poverty in Nigeria comes in various forms: a lack of income and productive resources to sustain livelihoods; hunger and malnutrition; illness and death; and limited access to education and other basic services. It includes inadequate housing and unsafe environments. It is also seen in a lack of participation in decision-making and civil, social, and cultural life.

Nigeria currently has a population of 237 million people, and over 133 million Nigerians are living in poverty. It is higher in rural areas, where 72 per cent of people are poor, compared with 42 per cent in urban areas.

Nigeria has endured decades of violent insurgencies and ranks sixth on the 2025 Global Terrorism Index. Numerous people have been killed, and millions displaced. The number of casualties from terrorist attacks in 2025 is alarming. Most of the casualties are in places with high poverty levels.

The President Bola Tinubu-led administration had embarked on a sweeping market-oriented reform programme nearly three years ago, aimed at restoring stability and predictability to an economy long characterised by volatility.

Measures such as the removal of petrol subsidies, electricity tariff adjustments, and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market have helped correct deep-seated distortions and strengthen public finances. Still, they have triggered sharp increases in the cost of living, eroded household purchasing power, and pushed more Nigerians into poverty.

Nominal household spending rose by 19.6 per cent from N116.5 trillion in 2024 to an estimated N139.3 trillion in 2025, reflecting rising prices rather than improved welfare. In real terms, however, household consumption contracted by 2.5 per cent from N12.2 trillion to N11.9 trillion over the same period, underscoring the depth of the squeeze on living standards and suggesting that poverty pressures are unlikely to ease quickly.

Food inflation, although easing towards the end of 2025 due to improved harvests and exchange rate stability, has remained a significant drag on household welfare, particularly in urban centres and conflict-affected rural areas.

Rising insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural production and supply chains. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and softer global growth could weaken external demand and oil revenues, limiting the government’s capacity to scale up social spending.

Addressing Nigeria’s deepening poverty challenge will require more than macroeconomic stabilisation. Sustained progress will depend on accelerating job-creating growth, improving productivity across key sectors, strengthening social safety nets, and ensuring that reform gains are transmitted more effectively to households.

Also, the federal and state governments must do everything possible to improve the country’s infrastructure, such as power and roads.

That Nigeria is grappling with epileptic power supply – a key boost to startups and industrialisation – is unacceptable. Roads for evacuating goods and farm produce are mostly in deplorable condition.

Without such measures, headline improvements in growth and inflation may coexist with worsening social outcomes, leaving millions of Nigerians struggling under the weight of high living costs and fragile incomes even as the economy shows signs of recovery.

With political activity set to peak this year, it is unclear when both the federal and state governments will allocate time to address poverty. While insecurity is still not abating, there are no concrete poverty alleviation mechanisms in place to address the problem. 

This is why governments at all levels must de-emphasise politics and concentrate on tackling the menace.