2026: Turning Economic Potential into Prosperity

EDGY OPTIMIST

Welcome to 2026, a new year that presents a fresh chance to rethink where Nigeria is headed and how we get there. The new year presents not just economic potential on paper, but a real opportunity to convert reforms, investment, and enterprise into tangible prosperity for households and businesses. The challenge and the promise lie in ensuring that growth is not theoretical, but truly felt in people’s lives.

Indeed, the year 2025 brought its own challenges, which included poor budget implementation, ecological and humanitarian disasters, worsening poverty and widening inequality, with insecurity as a major destabilising factor.

In 2025, the performance of key indicators of the Nigerian economy ended stronger, reflecting gradual stabilisation, improving investor confidence, and signs of renewed growth across key sectors. For instance, inflation, which stood at 24.48 percent in January, dropped to 14.5 percent last November, buoyed mainly by a rebasing exercise undertaken by the National Bureau of Statistics. Also, the naira ended 2025 stronger as it closed at N1,429/$1 on December 31, which was a 7.4 percent appreciation compared with the N1,535/$1 recorded as at December 31, 2024.

Equally, the Nigerian stock market ended the 2025 trading year with a 51.19 percent gain with a total market capitalisation of N99.3 trillion. In the financial sector, the expansion in monetary aggregates slowed, compared with the preceding year, as key interest rates rose, reflecting tight conditions in the money market.

Despite these positive numbers, many Nigerians are still struggling, with households facing eroded purchasing power. In fact, the World Bank estimated that the number of Nigerians living in poverty as of last year was 139 million. Nigeria’s human capital index is ranked among the lowest globally: children born in 2020 are expected to reach only 36 percent of their full potential productively without better access to education and health services.

However, amidst these challenges lies an opportunity for Nigeria to chart a more resilient and sustainable economic path in 2026.

Looking forward, the year 2026 presents a realistic window of opportunity for macroeconomic stabilisation. Already, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the Nigerian economy is expected to continue expanding, with growth projected at 4.49 per cent in 2026.

The projection is hinged on continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance. For the central bank, the growth momentum is also anticipated to be complemented by increased production and investments in the oil sector, supported by improved security surveillance, alongside gains from enhanced domestic refining capacity.

President Bola Tinubu should follow through on his pledge of stricter budget discipline in 2026. This is essential in ensuring that government finances are well-managed, to spur fiscal discipline and support financial stability.

Nigeria’s enormous economic potential, due to its abundant resources and growing population, has been widely reported. The country has the potential to manufacture many products that are currently being imported. Its investment appetite is huge and driven by many opportunities, and the level of return on investment in the country.

The country’s economic growth and investment over the years have been hampered by weak governance, corruption, infrastructure deficit, and poverty, among others. Its harsh business environment has been largely attributed to a lack of the government’s commitment to policy execution, as successive governments would always declare their intention to support business operators, but end up most of the time not living up to their promise.

Without resolving the power sector crisis this new year and ensuring that Nigerians have access to reasonably priced energy, the country cannot hope for significant national economic growth.

In 2026, investing strategically in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology can create new avenues for growth, employment, and export earnings, reducing vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations. The non-oil sector has huge potential for foreign exchange earnings and can bring about huge employment generation and poverty reduction through the extensive backward linkages it offers.

In addition, simplifying regulations, streamlining bureaucratic processes, and fostering a more predictable business environment are not just desirable goals but essential for Nigeria to reach its full potential.

Also, creating a more business-friendly climate would signal to international investors that Nigeria is open for business and would encourage the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, which are the backbone of any economy. It also reduces opportunities for corruption, promotes a level playing field for businesses, increases public trust in government, and enhances the country’s global competitiveness by making it more attractive for trade and investment in the long term.

The new tax laws must be implemented with a human face so as not to create an additional burden on Nigerians. By addressing these concerns, it would be easier for domestic and foreign investors to do business in the country.

In the area of security, the spate of killings and displacement in some parts of the country has pivoted the world’s attention to the risk and fragility of Nigeria. There is therefore the need for the country’s security agencies to ensure that peace and stability are restored to troubled communities and for people to live without fear.

The Nigeria we all want would be a mirage if good governance is not accorded its rightful place in addressing insecurity. Governance must focus on addressing the growing dissatisfaction, discomfort, and distress within the larger society, just as efforts must be made to abate corruption, tackle the country’s high unemployment rate, poverty and fix the country’s decaying infrastructure.

Another thing that is essential in unlocking growth opportunities in this new year is reforming the country’s outdated Land Use Act. This can unlock vast opportunities in real estate taxation and capital formation.

The country is in urgent need of a trade policy that is coherent, predictable, growth-oriented and aligns with the complexities in the global trade environment. Policymakers must target policies and programmes that encourage local production, reduce structural import dependence, and enhance the country’s competitiveness in both the regional and global markets.

With this, Nigeria can unlock its vast potential, attract investment, create jobs, and improve the lives of its citizens in 2026 and beyond.