Business Confidence Rises as Firms Bet on Stronger Activity, Naira Recovery
Nume Ekeghe
Nigeria’s business community entered the final quarter of 2025 with renewed optimism, as firms across key sectors expressed confidence in improved economic conditions and stronger business activity, strong naira amongst others over the next six months, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN), November 2025, Business Expectations Survey (BES) has revealed.
The survey showed that the aggregate Confidence Index (CI) stood at 37.5 index points in November, firmly in positive territory, reflecting widespread optimism about the macroeconomic environment.
This outlook is projected to strengthen further with confidence expected to rise to 43.9 points next month, 49.6 points in three months, and peak at 52.8 points over the next six months.
According to the report, the sustained positive sentiment was largely driven by favourable expectations around the volume of business activity, as respondents anticipate improved demand conditions heading into 2026.
A sectoral breakdown showed that all major sectors, Industry, Agriculture and Services recorded positive outlooks in the review month, with the industry sector leading at 38.1 index points. Confidence, the report added, is expected to remain strong across all sectors over the medium term, underpinned by expectations of rising output and improved operating conditions.
The Mining and Quarrying sector emerged as the most optimistic, recording a confidence index of 50.0 points, followed by Agriculture and Market Services. Respondents were also upbeat about business expansion and hiring plans, with the Construction sector posting the strongest expansion outlook, while Mining and Quarrying led employment expectations for December 2025.
According to the report, “In line with the expected business expansion plan, businesses anticipate hiring more workers in December 2025. An analysis of the sectors showed that the
construction sector had the highest prospect for expansion while mining and quarrying had the highest prospect for employment in the review month.”
Regionally, optimism was uneven. The North-East recorded the highest confidence level at 52.7 points, while the South-East posted the lowest at 18.7 points, highlighting persistent structural and security-related disparities across the country. Nonetheless, expectations for the coming months remained positive across all regions, with the North-West and South-West projected to post stronger confidence levels over the six-month horizon.
Despite the upbeat sentiment, businesses flagged insecurity, high and multiple taxation, insufficient power supply, high interest rates, and financial constraints as the most significant challenges weighing on operations. Insecurity topped the list of constraints, underscoring its continued impact on productivity and investment decisions
On the macro front, firms expressed optimism about the exchange rate outlook, with respondents expecting the naira to appreciate against the US dollar across all review periods. Borrowing rate expectations also remained positive, suggesting cautious optimism around credit conditions.
They said, “Respondents expect the Naira to US Dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate
across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. Also, they anticipate continuous positive outlook for the borrowing rate during the same periods.”
Average capacity utilisation across sectors stood at 50.1 per cent in November, with the Mining sector recording the highest utilisation rate, reflecting relatively stronger activity levels.
The BES, conducted between November 10 and 14, 2025, covered 1,900 business enterprises nationwide across Industry, Services and Agriculture, achieving a response rate of 99.1 per cent. While the report reflects respondents’ views, the CBN noted that it does not necessarily represent the Bank’s official position
