2026 Federal Budget: Tinubu’s Politics of Security, Sacrifice and Consolidation

President Bola Tinubu’s 2026 federal budget proposal’s presentation last Friday signals a decisive political moment, blending hard security choices, economic reforms and legislative partnership in Nigeria’s search for stability, writes Sunday Aborisade.

When President Bola Tinubu walked into the chamber of the National Assembly on Friday to present the 2026 Appropriation Bill, the ritual was familiar. Yet the message was unmistakably political. Beyond figures and fiscal projections, the N58.18 trillion proposal represented a defining statement about power, priorities and the direction of governance midway into his administration.

Tagged the “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” the estimates place defence and security at the centre of national planning, allocating N5.41 trillion, which is the largest single sectoral vote.

In a polity still grappling with insurgency, banditry, kidnapping and violent criminal networks, the choice was deliberate and symbolic: security, Tinubu argued, is the foundation upon which all other ambitions rest.

Budgets, as lawmakers often remind Nigerians, are more than economic tools; they are political documents that reveal the soul of a government.

Tinubu acknowledged this directly, telling the joint session that the numbers before them were “not mere accounting lines but a clear statement of national priorities.”

The figures underscore that intent. Total projected revenue for 2026 stands at N34.33 trillion against expenditure of N58.18 trillion, with N15.52 trillion set aside for debt servicing.

Capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion outweighs recurrent (non-debt) spending of N15.25 trillion, a ratio the president framed as evidence of a development-driven agenda.

The fiscal deficit of N23.85 trillion, equivalent to 4.28 per cent of GDP, sits just within legislated limits, signalling a careful balance between expansion and restraint.

Underlying the proposal are conservative assumptions: oil benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel, production at 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

In political terms, this caution is designed to avoid the credibility gaps that plagued earlier budgets built on overly optimistic forecasts.

The political centrepiece of Tinubu’s speech was security, not only in funding, but in doctrine. His declaration that all armed groups and gun-wielding non-state actors operating outside state authority would henceforth be treated as terrorists marked a significant rhetorical and policy escalation.

Bandits, militias, violent cult groups, forest-based armed collectives and even foreign-linked mercenaries were explicitly named. More strikingly, the president extended culpability to financiers, arms suppliers, informants, ransom negotiators and political protectors, warning that no shield, political, traditional or religious, would be tolerated.

In a country where security crises have often been complicated by local politics and elite complicity, the statement carried heavy political implications. It was an attempt to redraw the moral and legal boundaries of violence, collapsing grey areas into a clear binary: loyalty to the state or enmity against it.

The N5.41 trillion earmarked for defence and security is intended to back that posture with resources, modernising the armed forces, strengthening intelligence-led policing, improving border security and deploying technology-enabled surveillance.

Tinubu promised that spending would now be tied to “clear accountability and measurable outcomes,” a pledge aimed at addressing long-standing public scepticism about security votes.

Beyond security, the budget allocates N3.56 trillion to infrastructure, N3.52 trillion to education and N2.48 trillion to health. Tinubu framed these sectors as mutually reinforcing pillars of national renewal.

“Without security, investment will not thrive. Without educated and healthy citizens, productivity will not rise. Without infrastructure, jobs and enterprise will not scale,” he told the lawmakers.

Politically, this framing seeks to counter criticism that the administration’s early focus on macroeconomic reforms, fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tax changes, came at the expense of social welfare.

By foregrounding education and health alongside roads, power and rail, the president attempted to re-anchor his reform agenda in everyday human outcomes.

Still, some legislators hinted that allocations to education and health might be revisited during parliamentary scrutiny, reflecting the enduring tension between fiscal realism and social demand.

Perhaps the most politically sensitive moment of the address came when Tinubu openly acknowledged the hardship Nigerians have endured.

“Families and businesses have faced pressure; established systems have been disrupted; and budget execution has been tested,” he said, conceding what many citizens have felt acutely since 2023.

This admission was not merely rhetorical empathy. It was a calculated political move to own the costs of reform while asking for patience.

Tinubu insisted that the sacrifices were yielding results and that the 2026 budget was designed to consolidate gains and translate recovery into improved living standards.

To support this claim, he cited macroeconomic indicators: GDP growth of 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025; inflation moderating for eight consecutive months to 14.45 per cent by November; improved oil production; expanded non-oil revenues through tax administration; and external reserves rising to about $47 billion a seven-year high.

In Nigeria’s contested political space, such statistics are not neutral facts but instruments of persuasion, deployed to sustain legitimacy amid lingering discontent.

Another politically significant aspect of the 2026 proposal is Tinubu’s determination to enforce fiscal discipline and end the culture of perpetual roll-over budgets.

He directed the Ministers of Finance and Budget, alongside the Accountant-General and the Budget Office, to conclude outstanding components of the 2024 and 2025 budgets by March 2026.

The implication is clear: 2026 should stand alone, implemented fully within its fiscal year. Government-owned enterprises were also warned to meet revenue targets, as the administration moves toward end-to-end digitisation of revenue collection, real-time dashboards and interoperable payment platforms to block leakages.

For lawmakers and policy analysts, this represents a structural shift. A ranking senator described the approach as a “bold departure” from past practices that blurred accountability and weakened implementation.

The political tone of the event was notably cooperative. Senate President, GodswillAkpabio described the presentation as a “defining national conversation,” emphasizing that progress is fastest when the executive and legislature work in partnership.

Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, echoed this sentiment, calling the moment “democracy at its strongest” and framing the budget as evidence of Nigeria’s transition from fiscal turbulence to stability and reform-driven growth.

Both leaders pledged rigorous but timely scrutiny, with lawmakers even suggesting they would forgo holidays to ensure speedy passage.

This harmony contrasts sharply with past budget cycles marked by confrontation and delay, and it strengthens Tinubu’s political hand as he seeks swift legislative backing.

On his part, Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, reinforced the political messaging. He described the 2026 estimates as a move “beyond promises to practical implementation,” stressing the administration’s “no mercy” stance against terrorism and violent crime.

Lawmakers who spoke to THISDAY highlighted the coherence of the strategy, particularly the link between security, infrastructure and human capital.

Deputy Senate Leader, Senator Ashiru, called the engagement with the president reassuring, pointing to the scale of the security vote and the broader macroeconomic improvements.

Yet there were also notes of caution. Some legislators argued that education and health deserved even greater emphasis, signalling that the politics of appropriation, bargaining, adjustment and oversight, is only beginning.

Ultimately, the 2026 budget estimate’s presentation was about consolidation, power, policy and narrative. For Tinubu, it was an opportunity to assert control over the reform story, to reframe hardship as transition, and to project firmness on security at a time of persistent threats.

It was also a test of trust: trust that the promised discipline will materialise, that security spending will deliver tangible safety, and that economic recovery will reach households, not just balance sheets.

As the budget proposal moves into legislative scrutiny, its fate will reveal much about Nigeria’s evolving political economy. For now, Tinubu has set the tone: a government betting that security, discipline and shared sacrifice can anchor renewed confidence, and that the politics of consolidation can hold.