Dangote Refinery Raises In-country Petrol Supply by 5.5m Litres Daily Amid 11.48m Deficit

•Nigeria records high PMS reserve vulnerability with only 17 days sufficiency  

•Fuel consumption falls by 3.8 million litres per day m-o-m

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Dangote Refinery raised in-country petrol supply by about 5.5 million litres per day in November, up from 18.03 million litres in October to 23.52 million in November, despite a pledge of 35 million litres per day average, fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed yesterday.

Besides, the NMDPRA November fact sheet indicated that Nigeria recorded an average daily consumption of petrol of 52.9 million litres per day during the period under review, about 5.8 per cent above the 2025 daily demand benchmark of 50 million litres.

This came as the 650,000 bpd refinery recently announced plans to supply 1.5 billion of petrol monthly to the Nigerian market in December 2025 and January 2026, a move it said is aimed at ensuring uninterrupted nationwide fuel availability through the festive season and into the New Year.

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, noted that the refinery will make available 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily beginning December 1.

In the same vein, 71.5 million litres daily supply of petrol was recorded in November, with domestic fuel sufficiency at 16.5 days in November, up from 11.1 days in October, an analysis of the data showed, underscoring the country’s supply vulnerability if for any reason import dries up and Dangote refinery encounters any challenges.

However, the regulator attributed the rebound in supply to a combination of factors, including increased imports by the NNPC as supplier of last resort to rebuild inventories as well as the spillover of 12 vessels that were meant to discharge in October but discharged in November.

The mix lifted domestic discharges and helped bring the country back marginally above the benchmark level needed for routine consumption.

Diesel demand also strengthened in November, with average daily consumption rising to 15.4 million litres, which is 10 per cent higher than the 2025 benchmark of 14 million litres per day, an uptick that reflects rising transport and industrial activity as the country heads into the peak commercial season.

On LPG or cooking gas, domestic supply averaged 4,958 tonnes per day while apparent domestic consumption was 3,992 tonnes per day in November, meaning domestic supply exceeded consumption by roughly 24.2 per cent .

Despite that surplus on a tonnage basis, national LPG sufficiency was recorded at only eight days, underlining distribution and accessibility challenges for the cooking gas market even when overall tonnage improved. Also, prices remained in a wide retail band of N950–N1,500 per kg across the country in November.

The gas sector numbers in November also showed resilience, as total average daily gas supply stood at 4.684 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscf/d). Of that total, gas to power accounted for 0.645 Bscf/d, approximately 13.8 per cent of total gas supplied, while gas to commercial users averaged 0.420 Bscf/d.

NLNG’s train operations and major gas plants posted varied utilisation rates at 73.7 per cent utilisation, with exported LNG continuing alongside sizable domestic flows, reflecting continued prioritisation of gas-to-power and export obligations while maintaining domestic commercial supplies.

Refinery development and modular refinery activity remained an important part of November’s story. The regulator recorded one new refinery establishment license (LTE) issued during the month and one refinery construction license (LTC) issued, bringing ongoing development activity into view.

However, the domestic refinery landscape remains mixed, with government facilities  remaining shut down this year and modular refineries producing mainly diesel reporting average capacity utilisation rates in the 60 per cent and 90 per cent band.

National fuel sufficiency, which represents the number of days the country can meet demand from available stocks, improved for some products but still showed vulnerabilities. In November the fact sheet listed 17 days of petrol sufficiency, 35 days for diesel, 15 days for aviation fuel (ATK), eight days for LPG and 51 days for Low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO).

The shorter sufficiency horizon for LPG and petrol indicated those markets remained sensitive to distribution bottlenecks and seasonal demand spikes. This means that policy attention and import planning will be critical to maintain uninterrupted supply during the high-demand end-of-year period.

Price signals remained relatively stable in November, as the fact sheet recorded an average pump price for petrol across sampled cities at roughly N910–N985 depending on location, with maximums touching N1,000 in some states and minimums around N893 in Lagos during the month.

Those regional spreads reflected transportation, local distribution costs, and retail margins, and will remain an important watch-area for both consumers and regulators as demand climbs, an analysis of the data showed.