15% Fuel Tariff: How Its Reversal Saved Nigeria from Economic Shock

By Ugo Inyama

A nation’s economy is like a patient on the operating table: sometimes the difference between healing and harm is not just the surgeon’s skill, but also their ability to time the incision. In Nigeria’s case, the proposed 15 per cent fuel-import tariff was a knife poised over a body already weak from blood loss. Applying it would not have cured anything. It would have deepened the wounds.

The government’s decision to drop the tariff is therefore not a climbdown but a moment of clarity, a recognition that you do not tighten the compression band on a limb that is barely receiving blood. At a time when households are strained, businesses are anxious, and inflation is raging, restraint is not just wisdom; it is survival.

Nigeria is living through one of its harshest cost-of-living crises in decades. Prices of food, transport, rent, medicines, and school fees have risen beyond logic or rhythm. The average family is gasping.

In this climate, a fuel tariff would have been like throwing more firewood into an already intense furnace. Pump prices would have jumped overnight. Transport fares would have doubled in some states. Markets from Aba to Maiduguri would have responded with new price tags before sunrise.

The Domino Effect Nigerians Know Too Well

Fuel is not just a commodity in Nigeria; it is the backbone of national life. Raise its price and you trigger a chain reaction that touches every corner of the economy.

Transporters increase fares.
Wholesalers increase logistics charges.
Retailers increase shelf prices.
Families adjust meals downward.
Businesses adjust staff downward.

The last time fuel costs spiked, Nigeria felt the shock in every household. Adding a tariff now would have replayed that painful movie at a time when citizens no longer have the emotional or financial strength to watch it again.

Inflation: A Fire You Do Not Feed

Inflation is already a tiger prowling at the door. The proposed fuel tariff, if implemented, would have opened the door wide.

Economies, like ecosystems, must maintain balance. Inflation is the predator that destroys balance first.

Fuel price hikes do not merely add to inflation; they multiply it. The tariff would have sent inflation to new heights, forced the Central Bank into harsher tightening, and delayed economic recovery.

Dropping the tariff is therefore a direct strike against runaway prices, a decision that protects consumption, supports stability, and prevents inflation expectations from becoming permanently unanchored.

A 15 per cent tariff would have reversed fragile gains.
Higher logistics costs would have crushed SMEs.
Manufacturers would have deferred expansion.
Consumers would have slashed discretionary spending.
Investors would have paused commitments.

Economic recovery is like a green shoot in harmattan. You guard it. You do not stamp on it.

Protecting the Private Sector and the Informal Majority

Over 50 per cent of Nigerians work in the informal sector. For them, fuel is life. It powers:

• Okada riders
• Keke drivers
• Market traders
• Cold-chain operators
• Barbers and hairdressers
• Welders and small workshops

A tariff-induced price hike would have emptied pockets and shuttered small businesses. In a country already battling mass unemployment and declining productivity, the government wisely refused to push more Nigerians to the brink.

Avoiding a Policy Own Goal

The tariff did not merely threaten inflation and hardship; it undermined the very reform Nigeria is trying to build.

After subsidy removal, the downstream sector was meant to transition into a competitive, market-driven system where private importers play a clear role. Adding a tariff would have increased the landing cost of fuel and discouraged those same private importers.

The unintended outcome?
A return to NNPC dominance — precisely what deregulation was supposed to avoid.

By reversing the tariff plan, the government protected the credibility of its own reform narrative.

FX Stability: A Quiet but Crucial Victory

Fuel imports consume vast amounts of foreign exchange. A tariff would have increased the cost of each shipment and therefore raised FX demand.

In a period when the naira is finally beginning to stabilise, this would have been disastrous. A weaker naira translates automatically into higher import prices, higher fuel costs, and a renewed inflation wave.

Dropping the tariff helps calm FX pressure, protect reserves, and support the broader stabilisation strategy.

Social Stability: A Fuse Better Left Unlit

Nigeria’s social mood is tense. People are hungry, anxious, and tired. Public frustration simmers beneath the surface.

Transport inflation is historically one of the fastest triggers of mass protests. The government understood this. A fuel tariff would have lit a fuse in an already volatile environment.

By stepping back, Abuja avoided the risk of:

• Strikes
• Protests
• Civil disruptions
• Security escalations

In governance, preventing crisis is sometimes the greatest achievement.

Revenue vs Reality

Yes, the tariff would have delivered additional revenue to government coffers. But public finance is not just about filling the treasury. It is about balancing income with the social and economic cost of raising that income.

A tariff in this climate would have cost the nation far more than it gained. It would have wiped out household savings, slowed GDP growth, raised unemployment, and strained security.

A government that chooses stability over aggressive revenue chasing is a government thinking long-term.

Perhaps the most important outcome of all is symbolic. For once, the government listened to public pulse, economic experts, industry players, and everyday Nigerians.

The reversal signals a shift from political stubbornness to economic sensitivity. It suggests a willingness to adjust, recalibrate, and prioritise citizens over rigid policy scripts.

The Right Decision, Made at the Right Time

Dropping the fuel-import tariff was not a retreat; it was a rescue.

It saved the economy from a fresh inflation shock.
It protected households from deeper hardship.
It preserved FX stability.
It defended SMEs and informal workers.
It supported the fledgling recovery.
It avoided social unrest.
It maintained reform coherence.
It restored a measure of public confidence.

In a season when Nigeria can hardly afford another blow, the government chose common sense over compulsion.

*Ugo Inyama writes from the African Digital Governance Centre, Manchester, UK.
www.Africandgc.org