ADC: Between Political and Moral Opposition

Vincent Obia explores the ADC challenge and how much of a political opposition it constitutes

African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as a significant force in Nigerian politics, placing itself as a viable alternative to the two political parties that have dominated governance since the Fourth Republic, All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

At the forefront of the new coalition party is former Senate President David Mark, who was recently chosen as its pro tem National Chairman.

Mark, a retired army general, will be leading to the 2027 general election an opposition set that includes former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was presidential candidate of PDP in 2023; presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in 2023, Peter Obi; former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai; former transport minister, Chibuike Amaechi; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal; former APC National Chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun, and many other prominent politicians. In the background, also, are believed to be key figures, including former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former military president Ibrahim Babangida, and former National Security Adviser (NSA) Aliyu Gusau.

ADC is riding the wave of growing discontent with the APC administration among Nigerians. It is fuelled by moral opposition to the APC government, which many believe has brought a lot of hardship to the citizens. 

Led by a powerful and vocal section of the elite, and anchored on a strong grassroots mobilisation strategy, the coalition seeks to replace APC’s President Bola Tinubu at the presidency in 2027. The leaders emphasise the significance of moral opposition, saying Nigerians deserve better than the APC administration.

In response to acerbic attacks on El-Rufai by APC, recently, ADC accused the ruling party of applying personal attacks as a weapon of distraction from its failures in governance.

“But we must remind them that while words can be manipulated, the facts on ground cannot,” said ADC National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi.

El-Rufai had led a delegation of opposition leaders to Sokoto State, where ADC launched a grassroots mobilisation campaign intended to rally support against the ruling APC ahead of the 2027 general election.

“The APC government is incompetent and clannish, and it’s clear that they have failed to address the many challenges facing our country,” El-Rufai said. “We cannot allow them to continue in power. It’s time for a change,” he added.

Like many of the coalition’s leaders, El-Rufai believed the APC government was pushing Nigeria over a political and economic precipice, and ADC was on a mission to salvage the country.

He said, “We are not fighting for personal gain or power. We are fighting for the future of our country.”

El-Rufai declared, “We believe that Nigeria deserves better than the APC, and we are committed to making that happen.”

ADC would be trying to take advantage of the harsh economic conditions under the APC administration to sway voters.

Though, APC has not been without some achievements, the successes have clearly not worked to lift most citizens out of poverty.

Since the APC government of the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria has witnessed a trend of economic diversification, away from the economic mono-culture based on crude oil, to non-oil revenue sources. From 58 per cent of federal government revenues in the first quarter of 2015, revenue from oil has reduced consistently, to 38 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, 31 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, and 29 per cent in the same period of 2024.

Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and a major oil producer. Yet, in 2025, it ranks among the world’s poorest nations.

The 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index reveal that 63 per cent of Nigerians experience multidimensional poverty, as they face deprivations across various facets of life.

Mounting debt burden has continued to be a major aggravator of poverty in Nigeria, stifling efforts to improve the citizens’ standard of living. In the first quarter of 2022, 84 per cent of the federal government’s revenue went into debt servicing; it rose of 89 per cent in the same period of 2023, and a staggering 167 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.

 Experts say it is only a productive economy that can lift majority of citizens out of poverty.

“We have tried the oil revenue model; we did not get out of poverty. We are now in the non-oil revenue model; poverty is still with us,” said data analyst and commentator, Babajide Ogunsanwo.

“So clearly, the bridge to cross from poverty to prosperity, that bridge is really about productivity,” Ogunsanwo said.

Productivity is an oft-iterated theme in the opposition coalition’s political and economic discussions and criticism of the APC government. It was the central message of Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign.

Newly elected National Chairman of APC, Professor Nentawe Yiwaltda, says he is reviewing and analysing the opposition’s criticisms with a view to adapting and incorporating them in the ruling party’s strategy to improve its performance.  

Yiwaltda told Channels TV recently, “Some of them will help me to improve on the performance of the party. Some of their criticisms are helping us to improve on our performance and also map our strategies better.” 

How quickly the APC government can amend its identified weaknesses and change the mounting discontent with its performance remain to be seen.

But APC’s failures would continue to be a key campaign tool for the ADC coalition ahead of 2027. 

ADC officially transformed into a coalition party on July 2, with Mark as interim National Chairman. Also last month, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of ADC held its final meeting, where the Ralph Nwosu-led executive stepped down, and the party’s leadership was formally handed over to Mark.

Former Osun State governor, Rauf Aregbesola, was named National Secretary of the party, and Abdullahi was announced as National Publicity Secretary.  Deputy national chairmen were also announced for the six geopolitical zones at the meeting monitored by officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

ADC is sounding a note of difference from the ruling APC and the other parties. It says its strategy is based on the principles of accountability, inclusivity, and transparency.

In a speech after taking over control of ADC, Mark pledged to serve the party “with integrity, transparency, courage, and vision”.

He said, “Under my leadership, we shall be committed to full democratic practices and principles that abhor imposition and special privileges. Internal democracy, transparency and accountability will be our mantra.”

He added, “We shall revamp our grassroots leadership structures to reflect modern realities. From the polling units, wards up to the national level, every organ will be re-energised.

“We will open the gates for the next generation. Our policies, nominations, and leadership roles will reflect meaningful inclusion of youths and women and not just tokenism.”

The former senate president announced that the party had reserved 35 per cent of its leadership positions for women.

Even though ADC is still working on a formal manifesto to guide its 2027 campaign, the soundbites from the party already look exciting, especially at a time when majority of citizens are seeking ways out of what they believe to be government-imposed hardship. But can those sentiments translate to political support and votes in 2027? Can ADC build a broad coalition of supporters capable of ousting APC at the next general election?

ADC is trying to replicate APC’s 2015 feat, when it brought together a group of opposition politicians in a coalition that beat an incumbent president for the first time in Nigeria’s history. But 2015 is not 2027, and ADC is not APC, though many of the former’s promoters were equally strong factors in the making of the latter.

APC was founded on February 6, 2013 from a merger of the three biggest opposition parties at the time – Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) – as well as some sections of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

The APC coalition gained significant political traction by leveraging Buhari’s strong northern grassroots support, the legendary “Buhari 12 million votes”, and Tinubu’s robust control over South-west’s block vote.

In contrast to the APC experience, ADC is largely a coalition of individuals, not parties. And ADC does not seem to have individuals with the kind of vote-yielding political clout APC boasted in 2013.

But ADC may try to offset all that by riding on the wings of Obi’s broad-based support. Obi pulled a surprise at the 2023 presidential election, garnering a whopping 10 million votes on the platform of a party, LP, which had no sitting governor at the time.

It is hard to determine how intact those votes are ahead of 2027. But the Obidient Movement, a strong national force behind Obi’s mobilisation effort in 2023, remains a portent organisation.

The party may also benefit from Atiku’s northern support base. But it would be nothing like the personality cult Buhari enjoyed.

Nwosu said ADC’s membership surged to over three million within the first two weeks of the announcement of the coalition. He also claimed, “ADC is now the government in waiting, with 28 senators and more than 60 members of the House of Representatives.”

But no sitting governor has publicly identified with ADC. Though, Babachir said most northern governors would have to join ADC to seek re-election, stressing that the party has already discussed with some of the governors.

It is believed that many prominent politicians may still join ADC as the country approaches the 2027 elections. They may be watching to see how things pan out before publicising their intentions.

However, some moral issues in the Tinubu government may also be its own Achilles heel, which ADC may capitalise on to swell its support.

Recently, Tinubu extended the expired tenure of Comptroller General of Customs, Bashir Adeniyi, by one year, in what has been criticised as a deliberate act meant to scuttle the rise of the next in line, Deputy Comptroller General of Customs BU Nwafor, an Igbo from Anambra State, to the top customs job.

Apex Igbo social-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, described the tenure extension as institutionalised unfairness and nepotism. Ohanaeze said with Adeniyi’s tenure extension for one year, Nwafor, who will be due for retirement in October 2026, had been effectively denied the Comptroller General position, while the next in hierarchy after him, KI Adeola, was strategically positioned to take over from Adeniyi in 2026.

The Tinubu government is burdened by a lot of issues capable of adversely effecting it in 2027.

But while ADC has a surfeit of issues to use against APC, it does not seem to have the ability to process the APC failures into electoral advantage.

ADC’s opposition verges on disagreements with the APC government based on the beliefs of the coalition’s members. The coalition may win critical economic, political, and social debates, but it does not appear to have the structure to defeat an incumbent president, at least for now.