Africa’s Financial Future Hinges on Nigeria’s Choice: Why Dr. Sam Maimbo Must Lead the AfDB

Tunde Ajia

Introduction

As Nigeria, the largest shareholder of the African Development Bank (AfDB), prepares to cast its vote in the upcoming presidential election, the stakes could not be higher. The AfDB, Africa’s premier multilateral financial institution, stands at a crossroads, grappling with financial strains and geopolitical shifts that threaten its stability and influence. The outgoing president, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina, a Nigerian, has left an indelible mark on the institution, championing transformative projects that have empowered Nigerian businesses, brought an imposing regional office to Abuja, and elevated Nigerian professionals within the Bank’s ranks. To safeguard and build upon this legacy, Nigeria must back a candidate who can navigate the AfDB through turbulent times while advancing the continent’s—and Nigeria’s—strategic interests. Among the contenders, Dr. Samuel Munzele Maimbo emerges as the standout choice, uniquely equipped with the financial acumen, institutional expertise, and global credibility to lead the AfDB into a new era of resilience and impact. This is a moment for vision, not sentiment. Nigeria’s vote should not be guided by regional loyalties or transactional alliances but by clear-eyed analysis of what the AfDB needs now and how Nigeria can best secure its long-term interests. Supporting Dr. Maimbo is therefore, both a continental responsibility and a national necessity.

The AfDB’s Financial Challenges

The AfDB’s financial health is under scrutiny. Despite a robust 2023 performance, with net income rising to UA 406.05 million and the African Development Fund achieving a record surplus of UA 115.27 million, warning signs loom large. Non-sovereign loan impairments, pegged at 12.4%, signal weaknesses in risk assessment that undermine private-sector lending—a critical engine for Nigeria’s burgeoning industries. Net interest income plummeted 93.5% from UA 153.31 million in 2022 to UA 9.95 million in 2023, driven by soaring funding costs and unfavorable spreads. Currency translation losses and actuarial liabilities further erode earnings, while reliance on callable capital pushes debt-to-usable capital ratios close to prudential limits. Most alarmingly, the Trump administration’s May 2, 2025, announcement to cut America’s $555 million annual contribution to the AfDB and its concessional arm, the African Development Fund, threatens the Bank’s triple-A credit rating and its ability to raise affordable capital. For Nigeria, which relies on the AfDB for concessional financing and infrastructure projects, these challenges demand a leader who can stabilize the institution while amplifying its role in Nigeria’s economic agenda.

Adesina’s Legacy and Nigeria’s Stake

Dr. Adesina’s tenure has been a boon for Nigeria. Under his leadership, the AfDB has prioritized projects like the $500 million Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) initiative, which has boosted Nigeria’s agricultural value chains, created jobs and stimulated rural development. Nigerian businesses have accessed AfDB financing for energy, transport, and digital infrastructure, while Nigerian professionals have risen to prominent roles within the Bank, reflecting Adesina’s commitment to meritocracy and national pride. A misstep in selecting his successor risks unraveling these gains, marginalizing Nigerian staff, and weakening the Bank’s support for Nigeria’s development priorities. Nigeria, holding the largest shareholding at 9.3%, cannot afford to back a candidate who lacks the vision or expertise to sustain this momentum. Dr. Maimbo is the only candidate who combines the technical prowess and strategic foresight to protect Nigeria’s interests while steering the AfDB through global uncertainties.

Dr. Maimbo’s Unmatched Qualifications

Dr. Maimbo’s career is a testament to his ability to deliver results in complex financial and institutional settings. As Vice President for Budget, Performance Review, and Strategic Planning at the World Bank, he secured a $3.5 billion budget—the largest nominal increase in two decades—while streamlining operations to enhance efficiency. This experience is directly relevant to the AfDB’s need to restructure its operations amid financial pressures. His leadership of the World Bank’s IDA20 replenishment, securing a record $93 billion a year early, demonstrates his ability to rally global capital for Africa’s priorities—a critical skill as the U.S. signals disengagement. Since the IDA supports 39 African countries, including Nigeria, Maimbo’s proven ability to align donors with African needs makes him uniquely suited to diversify the AfDB’s funding base, engaging Gulf States, sovereign wealth funds, and African institutional investors to offset Western retrenchment.

Strengthening Nigeria’s Private Sector

Nigeria’s private sector, a cornerstone of its economic growth, stands to benefit immensely from Maimbo’s expertise in risk management and financial innovation. His tenure as Practice Manager for Long-Term Finance and Risk at the World Bank saw him oversee $700 million in financial services, from sovereign catastrophe bonds to infrastructure finance products. This experience equips him to address the AfDB’s 12.4% non-sovereign loan impairments, which have hampered private sector lending critical to Nigerian businesses in energy, agriculture, and technology. Maimbo’s pioneering work in hybrid capital mechanisms and securitization offers a playbook to stabilize the Bank’s financial base, countering the margin squeeze that saw net interest income collapse. For Nigeria, where private-sector growth is vital to reducing unemployment and boosting GDP, Maimbo’s ability to strengthen the AfDB’s lending capacity is a game-changer.

Navigating Geopolitical Challenges

Geopolitically, Maimbo’s global credibility and diplomatic finesse position him to safeguard Nigeria’s influence within the AfDB. His track record—leading presidential transition teams, convening African Heads of State in Dakar and Abidjan for IDA funding alignment, and cultivating trust across global capitals—demonstrates his ability to navigate the fractious landscape of international finance. As the U.S. withdrawal threatens the AfDB’s credibility, Maimbo’s ability to bridge Wall Street’s rigor with Africa’s realities makes him the ideal candidate to restore donor confidence and secure new partnerships. For Nigeria, this means continued access to concessional financing for projects like the Lagos-Abidjan Corridor and the Nigeria Electrification Project, which have been pivotal to regional integration and energy access.

A Pan-African Vision Rooted in African Realities

Maimbo’s African roots, born and raised in Zambia, give him an intimate understanding of the continent’s challenges and aspirations. Unlike candidates who may prioritize donor agendas, Maimbo has consistently championed African-led development, advocating for financing that aligns with African governments’ priorities. This resonates deeply with Nigeria, which has long sought to assert greater agency in global financial institutions. His commitment to transparency, fairness, and value for money ensures that the AfDB will remain a truly African institution, responsive to the needs of its largest shareholder. For Nigerian policymakers, this election is a chance to cement the AfDB as a platform for Nigeria’s leadership in pan-African development, particularly in advancing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), where Nigeria plays a pivotal role.

The Risks of a Wrong Choice

The risk of choosing the wrong candidate is stark. A leader lacking Maimbo’s financial expertise could fail to address the AfDB’s vulnerabilities, jeopardizing its triple-A rating and limiting Nigeria’s access to affordable capital. A president without his institutional experience might struggle to reform the Bank’s operations, leading to inefficiencies that undermine Nigerian projects. Worst of all, a candidate swayed by vote-trading or regional politics could dilute Nigeria’s influence, sidelining its professionals and businesses. Adesina’s legacy—marked by Nigeria’s prominence in the AfDB’s operations—must not be squandered through a short-sighted choice.

Conclusion

This election is a referendum on the AfDB’s future and Nigeria’s role in it. Dr. Maimbo offers a rare synthesis of technical mastery, institutional insight, and pan-African vision. He represents the best of Africa: competent, principled, globally respected, and deeply rooted in African development realities. For Nigeria, backing his candidacy is not charity—it is strategic self-interest.

It ensures that the institutional gains under Adesina are preserved, that Nigerian businesses remain key beneficiaries of AfDB capital, and that Nigeria’s leadership role in Africa’s development finance architecture is sustained. Given current climes and conditions, the AfDB’s next leader will shape Africa’s economic destiny. Nigeria can and should lead that future—by supporting the right man, at the right time, for the right reasons. That man is Dr. Sam Maimbo.

•Tunde Ajia is an infrastructure development specialist and strategy advisor, whose interests lay at the nexus of where policy meets the design and delivery of infrastructure projects.

Previously a board member of the Project Management institute (PMI) UK chapter and currently sits on the executive board of Oxford Urbanists (OU), a global non-profit organization on sustainable urbanism. He has conducted extensive research in infrastructure development and economic growth.  Email: tuibaj@outlook.com