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TWO YEARS IN THE SADDLE
AUSTIN ISIKHUEMEN assesses President Bola Tinubu’s mid-term performance in office
May 29, 2025 is bare a week away. That date marks the halfway milestone of President
Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidency. This is a good time to review how well he has performed and
identify the gaps that needs to be filled to enable Nigerians to say well done at the end of a full first term in 2027. That assessment too, would enable altruistic determination of whether a second
tenure is merited and should be bequeathed by the people, his employers, through the ballot box once again. This is the assessment I attempt to do here as a citizen whose life has been affected for
good or ill by policies and actions of the Jagaban government in the last two years.
What gives me the authority, even audacity, to publicly assess a presidential performance and why should people take my views on such a weighty matter seriously? As someone not known to be a
card-carrying member of the ruling party, could my views not be seen as coloured by partisanship considerations and therefore, not worthy of serious attention? Lastly, of what use is this two-year assessment on a four-year journey, when the next two years can be profoundly more impactful in view of the government’s deliberate increased momentum to breast the tape in a winning shape deserving of an encore?
First, I am a free citizen in this country which has chosen democracy as its mode of governance.
That alone gives me the freedom of expression within legal limits. As one impacted by the policies
of government, and therefore, a beneficiary, or victim, in the last two years, it is appropriate, even a duty, to speak out and put in bold relief, what my pains and gains have been. As a public affairs commentator, voter, adult past 60 years age, with some education to tertiary level, work experience
spanning decades and several industries, a father and someone with a sense of history having experienced many governments in our dear country, I can humbly submit that I am not unqualified
to carry out this exercise!
Non-members of the ruling party are more suited to such analytical assessment, not blinkered by partisan loyalty considerations. They too, for the love of country, must avoid the pitfall of deliberate blindness to beneficial policies or ones that have a gestation period with positive outlook
for the polity. Two years review, no matter how critical, gives the incumbent and his team a barometer reading which can be positively deployed in the cause of new steps to be taken in the time left. It helps them to adjust the direction that will benefit the people and help the government’s
desire to get their approval for a second tenure. This long preamble was necessitated by the fact that this is perhaps among the first, if not the very first, in the series of reviews that will flood the media in the next days.
So, how well has the government done in the last two years? Has Jagaban, after his long
preparation to win this ultimate prize of the presidency of the world’s most populous black nation, made good the promise of good governance and put the indolence of a past administration behind
us? I can only look at a few areas and leave the rest to other commentators and assessors, including
the government’s paid mouthpieces who must be preparing their defensive hoodwinks and papers to cover the visible cracks of non-performance in some areas. That is the nature of government anyway.
OIL SUBSIDY REMOVAL: This was the very first action taken by President Tinubu on the inauguration podium. Courageous?
Very much so! All the top candidates had canvassed this removal of what was considered a drain
pipe and an avenue for massive corruption that had become a blight on the nation. That even today, the government still have to contend with forces that prefer importation of finished petroleum products to local production for which we have now got the capacity to meet our needs
is baffling to some of us.
We now have continuous availability of PMS, diesel and other fuels that drive the economy, but the price has been back-breaking! Going from N189/litre to N920 in Lagos now, the impact on people, industry and general prices have been devastating. Bus fares from Benin City to Lagos moved, in some instances from N3000 to N25,000 about 700 percent increase. The impact of this
on inflation has been humongous. That the palliatives were not well thought out before the precipitate announcement was a major error in its implementation. But that it has finally been done is praiseworthy.
FLOATING OF THE NAIRA: That this was also a desired policy is not in doubt. Internal economists and global financial
institutions have long canvassed for this so as to eliminate the arbitrage opportunities that fuelled corruption and entrenched inefficiencies. Hitherto, people were made millionaires overnight simply through foreign exchange allocation and round-tripping and diversion of such funds from productive activities was commonplace.
This unification of exchange rate, is a welcome development and the government must be praised for taking such a bold step. However, the way it was done simultaneously with fuel subsidy
removal left citizens and industry gasping for breath! A staggered approach could have helped but some argue that biting the bullet at once also have salutary effects which will become palpable in due time. Moving from N200 to a US dollar to N1,600 was devastating for manufacturers and many, such as Diageo, Uniliver, GSK, voted with their feet and left Nigeria, exacerbating unemployment. Thank God Guinness, bought from Diageo by Tolaram, appears to have turned the
corner is headed in growth trajectory.
SIZE OF GOVERNMENT
While everyone canvassed a reduction of the size of government as a way to bring cost of
governance down, with work already done by the famous Oronsaye Committee, it was a shocking turn of events that the current government came up with the highest number of ministries and ministers ever in our nation’s history. More agencies of government have also been created and new universities are being established with the existing ones gasping for funding breath. Many areas of duplication have been left untouched. One had expected PBAT to be a reformer in this
key area that requires courage and intellect.
ENERGY SECTOR: The most significant change in this area has been in the petroleum sector where Dangote Refinery,
the largest single stream petroleum refinery in the world, was finally completed and went into
production. Now, Nigeria has got a refinery that can meet its needs for PMS and other fuels and export to other countries in Africa and beyond. Thanks to the brilliance, tenacity, financial wizardry and patriotism of one man called Aliko Dangote! It was disheartening and baffling that government agencies attempted, and still attempts to date, to stifle this gargantuan initiative and success story using various stratagems.
Fake analytical results cooked to fool that world about the quality of fuels from Dangote’s refinery were even deployed. Was the author of that evil machination ever sanctioned? Could Dangote not
sell at lower prices today if the NNPC behemoth and importers allow it? Government can do better in this area to demonstrate visible support to the largest single manufacturing industry (petroleum refining and petrochemicals) in Nigeria. That it came on stream in the life of this administration is a plus.
NNPC also started production after decades of indolence and waste in interminable Turn Around Maintenance that never turned one barrel around. The Tinubu government must be praised for finally getting NNPC refineries back to production, no matter how skeletal and opaque their volumes today. It was a milestone achievement. We saw more of a catchup game with Dangote refinery by the NNPC leadership. Was anyone who superintended over the locust years of NNPC
ever queried or sanctioned? Closing the loop must be part of government actions at all times.
Electricity management by the ministry of power has seen quite a number of initiatives.
Classifying consumers to bands based on ability to pay is one of them. Today, band A consumers get mostly 24hrs uninterrupted supply while others in the lower bands get varied supply patterns nationwide. The minister has even attempted to review Disco’s performances and is currently taking actions to address non or suboptimal performance by both discos and gencos. We have also seen the new initiative to power Aso Rock from massive solar installation. This is a diversification
initiative in a nation with abundance sunlight throughout the year. However, some citizens also see it as a vote of no confidence on orthodox electricity supply from hydro and thermal sources.
Individuals are installing solar power solutions for their domestic needs. But the costs, for batteries, inverters and solar panels, are still prohibitive. Government should lower tariffs on these products and encourage local production so as to lower their prices and encourage people to adopt the technology and reduce demand on grid electricity supply. CNG introduction is a good one, but cost of installation needs government intervention as it is beyond a million naira today and filling
stations are not yet commonplace.
INSECURITY: This has escalated and people can no longer sleep with two eyes closed in large swathes of the country. It has gotten worse than it was during the last days of the Buhari government. I should
know because I read and I come from an area totally ravaged by kidnapping and banditry in Edo state. As I write this, many of my people are still in captivity and people sell their only landed property to pay ransom to kidnappers from a section of the country. This is an everyday affair in Esanland and the press is full of such stories across the nation. One wonders while State Police is still in abeyance while calls for it has increased across the north and south. For a President who advocated true federalism all his life, this ought to be a top priority. How do kidnappers ferry guns across state borders and make our security agencies look incompetent? What is the NSA doing?
Announcing likely increase in petroleum production is not in his remit. Protecting us is!
The score here is very poor indeed, in my considered view, and government needs to demonstrate capacity and capability to protect its citizens urgently. Our soldiers should not be killed like flies by a ragtag group of renegades and lunatics. The same army that brought peace to Sierra Leone
and Liberia! It is the living that vote, and the mourning, pauperised and raped may not be so inclined.
AVIATION: There has been a step-change in Aviation administration after the disaster of Hadi Sirika. A safer airspace, effective in-charge visibility of the current minister, repudiation of stupid, unpatriotic
contracts, payment of backlog of forex earnings of foreign airlines that threatened the aviation sector etc. The recent antelope incident at Asaba airport, no matter who runs the facility, is an indictment of regulatory oversight and should be addressed effectively to proactively prevent such anywhere in Nigeria. The government owes that to the flying public. And the poor antelopes I may add!
HEALTH: The minister and the ministry are doing okay. The rapid response and proactive actions and information upon hearing of a possible epidemic recently is worthy of praise. So is the focus on primary healthcare and activities in that sphere. The massive emigration of competent medical experts to foreign lands needs to be stemmed through effective policies and motivational
initiatives.
REVENUES TO THE STATES:
There has been a massive increase in naira revenues to the states and local governments resulting from the increased inflows occasioned by petrol subsidy removal. In dollar terms, i.e. real value, the increase may not be as significant. Kudos to the Federal Government. It is the responsibility
of the states to translate this to better lives for their people.
ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE:
The government is doing well and the works minister demonstrates a reassuring competence. The quality of roads being constructed is a huge improvement and must be commended. The Coastal Road under construction, it carried to completion, would improve the economy of the entire
southern flank of Nigeria and the entire nation itself. Thanks to Wike, the only minister
recognisable by a single name, Abuja has been sanitized and the road infrastructure has never been so focused on with massive results for all to see! You may quarrel with Wike’s politics but he is a performer and he is a shining star in Jagaban’s cabinet. Who was his predecessor?
However, a lot of roads in the South South, especially the Federal roads that lead to and out of my hometown of Uromi are an eyesore that have killed businesses and constitutes a visible evidence of government failure. This was not caused by the present government under but it is their responsibility to fix it and make the people feel a sense of belonging in this federation.
NATIONAL POLITICS
The current spate of defections into the ruling party is unhealthy for democracy. It is understood by many as a strategy to retain the Presidency in the South to match the eight years the North has just had it. But surely, that cannot be the only way. BAT has always been seen as a democrat that
fought for democratic ideals and even went into exile to actualise the return to democracy in Nigeria. For his party chair, the famous Ganduje, to publicly propound the desire for a one-party state is difficult to fathom. Adding an admiration for a China-type “democracy”, to me, is a bridge
too far. He could as well had recommended North Korea!
There would have been no APC had President Jonathan and the PDP followed that unholly route!
Our multi-party democracy, warts and all, would serve our country better. One party state will
take us to Cameroun-type Biya-nic polity. Cameroun even allows other parties that they allocate
one percent votes at their shambolic elections. I still believe Ganduje did not speak for our
President.
ELECTORAL REFORMS:
This is crucially needed and, they there is a committee in the national assembly attending to it, the government should let them know that reform requires more speed than the alacrity with which they handled the Natasha issue. If the reforms are not carried out before the next elections and
signed into law, we would still be dancing in the same spot and having lengthy litigations as is
ongoing in Edo State. It could also exacerbate the issue of legitimacy and reduced participation.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS:
The government did not appear to have handled the Sahel affair well. Now ECOWAS has lost three members who have formed their own community. The majority populations of those
countries appear to be happy with what they have got and we appeared to have been, in their eyes,
uninvited interlopers. Thank Providence we did not take our military to new warfronts fronts while
the home front is under unending vicious attacks. Who is the minister of Foreign Affairs and what
has he done lately?
LAW AND ORDER: Arrests of commentators, social critics and activists like VDM is not a wise thing to do. A few of
such undesirable actions, like the beating up of NLC chairman, have happened under this
government. It does not matter whether the government sanctioned it, it is liable for the actions
and inactions of its agents. GTBank is suffering it and there is no guarantee that a government
cannot. Such needs to be avoided no matter the temptation and miss-advice of aides that tell the
government to do it and nothing will happen. Things do happen sir! Criticism of a sitting
government is a right in a democracy.
ANTI-CORRUPTION FIGHT:
This started with a thunder with the Emefiele files, if one can call it that. The former CBN
governor’s banknote colour change which made banknotes unavailable as elections approached
was thought by many to have been targeted at a particular individual. His attempt to do the
unprecedented by running as President while still seating pretty as the head of Nigeria’s exchequer, with scores of branded campaign Sienas at the ready could also had rankled some quarters. The case of an Accountant-General accused of dipping his hand, covered to the elbow, in the nation’s
soup pot raised eyebrows nationwide. A governor was accused by the EFCC of having stolen his state funds to the tune of more than a hundred billion naira. The minister who painted an Ethiopian
aircraft and passed it off as Nigeria Air acquisition and got the former President to pass it off as a
major achievement was also a case in point.
That these cases, and many more, have gone cold, as far as the public knows, is not too flattering
and could be read as unwillingness to ruffle feathers or a recruitment stratagem. VDM appears to
have attracted more attention and the firepower of the anti-corruption agency. This anti-corruption
area needs to be given more impetus and less opaque momentum. Less visibility of corrupt people
or even those accused of massive heist around the government would do the government’s image
a lot of good.
FINAL PERFORMANCE SCORE
I leave that to my readers who will juxtapose this my submission, no matter how subjective they
may consider it, with other submissions in the next two weeks and come to a conclusion. I do not
want to arrogate the power to pronounce final verdict to myself. But my takes on the various
aspects above speak for themselves. Has Jagaban been in Aso Rock? The resounding answer is
yes! His imprints are all over the place and there is no doubt that he has touched some aspects
considered untouchable and demonstrated courage. But he must deliberately choose actions that
demonstrate the democratic ideals that made him to go into exile, that he fought President Obasanjo for and for which he was hailed as a democrat. Anything short would not be good enough. I also hope that the areas of not so high scores should be focus points for PBAT’s second half to look glorious while a neglect of same could have the opposite effect.
