RUSSIA AND KNIGHTS’ MOVES WAR STRATEGY

Victor C. Ariole writes the Ukraine invasion is a new version of the Cold War

European Union is in horror as it sees the invasion of Ukraine as the blackest moment of Europe. UN Secretary General sees it as his saddest moment. And like first and second World War, the world is turning to chessboard in which both sides of the game, whether white or black side, the pawns are to be sacrificed.

Watching some good chess players who make moves with the knight, assumptions are that if you can’t beat the champion, the opposite side, aim at checkmating the champion or decimating the opposing pawns. And Russia is doing just that in a greatly chaotic world in which North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) cajoling Ukraine to join them, failed to see the impending knight move available to Russia before ever asking Ukraine to make rookie move – constrained move, and never expected to get to castling stage where the king, NATO, exchange position with the knight, for the kill.

Volodyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president just know that it can’t trust NATO to take the dive; and when Biden announced that just a piece or a fraction annexation of Ukraine could only be tolerated, Zenlenskyy upheld his ‘no trust’ stance. And it happened as the supposed rebel eastern part of Ukraine caved in to Russian annexation. They are now known as Donetsk and Luhansk Republics. Just like Cuba, of the then cold war neighbouring USA, knew that excessive Russia’s presence could lead to annihilating it, Eustania, or any NATO member close to Russia could not allow itself to be a base for attack on Russia. Hence NATO could not expect Ukraine to aim at threatening Russia. And, the UN concern should be like Noam Chomsky says: NATO should keep off Russia’s proximity as agreed by NATO and Gorbachev at the time Gorbachev accepted the unification of Germany and allowing it to join NATO.

The same, also, along that same axis of south west of Russia, rich countries like Finland and Norway seemingly remain unconcerned as they had never contemplated joining NATO or ever willing to accept being pushed around by Russia, hence a bridge. Even Latvia and Estonia – NATO members – know that they cannot rely on Article 5 of NATO that expect all members to fight on the side of fellow member in case of any attack, hence they prefer to ever remain calm; never to provoke ‘a tiger’ who makes solitary decisive moves like a ‘queen’ on chess board or join the ‘lion pride’ for fear of serving as ‘a prey’ in default moves of the ‘king’ and its entourage. Metaphorically while Russia behaves like tiger or the queen on Chessboard, USA behaves like lion, the king, relying on the pawns, the frontline countries where the action is happening and the officers in remote places for action; however, the frontline countries, here, are not in position to confront Russia. Ukraine is serving as a warning to them, as well.

Russia, on its side, seems very much assured by its ‘default communist’ allies populating the south and north and, with its Knights’ move, by-pass the pawns, Belarus, Georgia, Mongolia, Azerbaijan and all the “ANs” of this world including Afghanistan. North Korea and China are the ‘default communists’ allies whereas the relatively strong former WARSAW pact allies that are now NATO members know that Russia is an impenetrable fortress.

But the world should be reminded that Putin is about becoming another Stalin, a Georgian, capable of making Stalin’s move like the move in taming Hitler who invaded part of Soviet Union, even after signing a non-aggression pact with Stalin. With over 145 million people and bordered by the north by the Arctic ocean, over 40,000-kilometre stretch (almost half of over 110,000km stretch of Atlantic Ocean from north to south), any war with Russia is like engaging a whirlwind with fire on its mouth.

Napoleon once tried it and failed. And there is no how all the Scandinavian countries who share great affinity with Russia could allow any country to attempt a war with Russia. That zone is their collective zone and heritage. Hence the fear as expressed by the United Nations’ Secretary General that the worse is about to happen if Russia refuses to retrace its steps and pull back its soldiers already on Ukraine’s soil.

Beyond that Arctic, and partially north or south east Asia, Russia should hands off its invasion tactics. In Africa also, as Wagner Mercenaries are deployed to cause trouble in Africa – Mozambique, Central African Republic, Mali, Guinea, and extending to Burkina Faso and Niger Republic. Currently production of ammunition is going on in Mali and CAR as reported. In effect, African Union should also know that Russia is recruiting some African countries to join in its war against “others”. Hence a war like other wars provoked by European ego.

By-passing NATO presence – USA, France, Germany, etc., – those types of knights’ movements using Wagner mercenaries, as reported by “Jeune Afrique”, needed to be checked. From such presence in ‘mercenary camouflage’ one begins to wonder what the world is turning to and why Ukranian president with about 44 million people could reason well that even with 1.2 billion people in Africa, Russia seems to be making in-road, and it could only be because the West is seemingly conniving with Russia, the way they connived to get Congo DR and Angola on their knees till today.

Russia is experimenting with oligarchs, as part of knights’ move or, as read from Russian literature, ‘root – stems’ approach to expansionism. Wagner is now a Russian expansionist oligarch, like there are up to 33 quoted companies in UK with Russian oligarchs’ connections or ownership. Hence UK should not dare to threaten their operations if it so much or believes in rule of law. So, there is no how just claiming to place sanctions on Russia would relent its spread or clamour for knightly moves activities both in business and in territorial occupation. Hear “The World For Sale” by Blas and Farchy 2021,19 and 137.

…PepsiCo became one of the world’s largest naval powers when it agreed that in exchange for the pepsi it was selling to the Soviets, it would be paid with 17 Soviet submarines… (like all offshore trading company dominated by the West) the commodities they transport are often to be found on high seas, beyond the scope of any national regulator – (sanction or no sanction).

It is still a neo-version of the cold war as American and Soviet money and arms converge and the rest of the world seems to be on sale.

Ariole is Professor of French and Francophone Studies, University of Lagos