RESOLVING THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE IMBROGLIO

Rajendra Aneja urges an urgent dialogue

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could have solemn ramifications for the entire world. We are back in the Cold War era, a time of mistrust and discord.

It is a colossal tragedy that Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an armed conflict. During the eight years that I worked in the UAE, I had observed that the Russians and Ukrainians had a lot in common, in terms of language and customs. They could have been cousins or siblings.

Russia’s concern with the Ukraine’s independent postures is understandable. Ukraine, with its 44 million population, was very keen to join NATO and the European Union. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is a military alliance between 28 European countries and the two North American countries, established in 1949, after World War II. These memberships would have ushered many advantages to Ukrainians, like better access to jobs, travel and improved lifestyles. Ukraine could have evolved into a model democracy. This would be an unpleasant dish to digest for some dictatorial regimes. President Putin has misgivings about NATO troops, in a neighbouring country, 490 kilometres from Moscow. Hence, he thought, that he had no option but to invade Ukraine.

The first few days of the invasion have shown the prowess of the Russian military. Ukraine is a brave country. However, its war machine is just about 10 to 15 percent of the Russian armada of tanks, armoured vehicles and fighter aircraft.

All the Western nations have condemned the invasion with strong words like tyrants, bullies, aggressor, punish Putin, etc. However, President Putin has ignored all these admonishments. He is single-minded in the pursuit of his goal, that Ukraine should be subjugated.

The sanctions imposed by the Western nations on Russia, are unlikely to slow down President Putin. He would have incorporated these sanctions in his war plans. Russia would have been preparing for this war, for about a year. So, it would have expected the sanctions. The sanctions could inconvenience Russia, but will not cripple it. Russia will simply maximise its business ties with countries like China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

The USA and Western countries have made it abundantly clear that they will not send any troops to Ukraine to fight Russia. The Western world does not want to put any boots on the ground, given the dangers of direct involvement in a battle. The Americans and British have not forgotten the lessons of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Though Ukraine feels abandoned, perhaps it is wise for Western countries to refrain from direct military involvement. Russia will resent any foreign troops. The situation could spin out of control and lead to World War III. With the weapons of mass destruction at the disposal of many countries, another World war could be catastrophic and see the end of human civilisation.

Given the current imbroglio, there is little point in casting stones on President Putin. We have to take the current situation as given and work from there. How do we talk to President Putin? Who can talk to him? How to reason with him? These are challenging questions. Condemning President Putin is not going to make him reasonable.

Ukraine is known as the bread basket of the world. It grows wheat, barley, corn, sunflower and exports them to Europe, Asia and Africa. Ukraine’s sunflower exports, comprise 40 percent of the world’s sunflower exports. Nigeria imports wheat, foods and pharmaceutical products from Ukraine. India imports sunflower from Ukraine. With the country now busy defending itself, its exports will suffer.

Agricultural exports are a major thrust of Ukraine’s economy, contributing 14 percent to the country’s GDP. Ukraine has 41 million hectares of land devoted to agriculture, about 70 percent of the land of in the country. Ukraine is the second largest country after Russia, in East Europe.

A third of Russia’s gas exports to Europe, pass through the Ukrainian pipelines. Russian oil also flows to Europe, through Ukraine. Ukraine supplies about 10 percent of the Europe’s steel requirements. The prices of many raw material across the world will go topsy-turvy. The Russian invasion is also going to impact the global supply chains, due to closure of air spaces and change of shipping routes. So, expect further escalation in prices of all products.

Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, is exhorting ordinary citizens to fight the Russian invaders. Around 18,000 guns have been given to civilians and even some members of parliament to fight the invasion. A pretty member of the Ukraine Parliament, Ms. Kira Rudik was interviewed on television, armed with a Kalashnikov, ready to take on the invaders to defend her family and country. The Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says he is on the Kill-list of Russia. However, he has refused an American offer to be personally extracted from Ukraine. These are brave stances. However, no civilian with a gun, can ever be a lasting solution, in front of a professionally armed and trained Russian soldier. There is a time to wage war and there is a time to smoke the peace pipe. This is the time to talk peace.

As an independent Ukraine should be free to join any group, it wishes to. Ukraine is a mature country. It should be allowed to choose its friends. However, considering Russia’s concerns that NATO troops would be next door to Moscow from Ukraine, it may be wise to explore other solutions.

A sensible option would be for Ukraine to declare itself as a neutral country, which does not take sides with the NATO or Russia. Like neutral Switzerland, Ukraine could have the best of all worlds then. Ukraine could downsize its military and revamp its economy to become a major tourist destination, as Dubai and Switzerland have done. Ukraine could become the Singapore of Europe.

To resolve the current pickle, it would be best for Russia and Ukraine to declare a cease-fire, sit on a table and solve their issues amicably. The United Nations should enable and host this dialogue.

Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and “Business Express”. He is a Management Consultant