Report: Despite Headwinds, Global Telecoms Industry Revenue Will Hit $1.1tn in 2028

Emma Okonji

Global telecoms revenue is projected to rise at a CAGR of 2.9 per cent through to 2028, below inflation, even as the sector’s total revenue across fixed and mobile verticals rose 4.3 per cent in 2023 to hit $1.1 trillion, according to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook, published recently for audience attending Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, which ended today, March 6, 2025.

The outlook report findings showed that the telecoms industry faces a sluggish outlook amid rising costs and competition, muted subscriber growth, and lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.

According to the report, despite the volume growth in the sector, average revenue per unit (ARPU) is expected to decline on average two per cent annually until 2028, across mobile, fixed broadband, and voice services.

But while the report points to a challenging environment in need of re-invention, wide variation exists in the growth outlook between services and markets. For instance, fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are projected to grow annually by 3.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent until 2028, respectively, while fixed voice subscriptions are expected to decline by 1.8 per cent. Across geographies, fixed subscriptions are projected to grow between 0-6 per cent, with higher growth markets including India (17.2 per cent), Nigeria (9.2 per cent) and Malaysia (9 per cent), the report said.

The report explained that telecoms service ARPU would continue to decline over the next five years, with mobile ARPU falling at a CAGR of –1.3 per cent, and fixed broadband ARPU essentially flat at a CAGR of –0.1 per cent.

Analysing the report, Global Telecoms Leader, PwC US, Dr. Florian Gröne, said: “The telecoms industry must re-imagine how it creates, delivers and captures value in the face of rising costs and competition. The industry faces enormous potential, particularly as consumers and societal actors increasingly operate across digital platforms and AI drives significant investments in digital connectivity infrastructure, but the industry remains sensitive to macroeconomic forces and is highly cost-intensive, with almost all the cash it generates absorbed by CapEx, dividends and servicing debt. As new and emerging technologies transform sectors, the telecoms industry must harness the power of AI, while working with investors and regulators to optimise market structure and deploy deals to build scale.”

The report also projected global 5G subscriptions to quadruple as capital shifts to fixed connectivity.

According to the report, despite sluggish uptake in 5G services to-date, subscriptions for the service are expected to more than quadruple, from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion in 2028, with its share of total mobile subscriptions more than tripling, from 18.8 per cent in 2023 to 64.1 per cent in 2028.

“At this rate, 5G is expected to become the dominant mobile standard from 2026. One particular application is Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA) – which is projected to be the fastest growing broadband technology to 2028, rising at a CAGR of 18.3 per cent. Against this backdrop, momentum of capital is shifting decisively towards fixed connectivity – or fibre. In 2023, total telecom Capex fell 2.3 per cent driven by a 5.7 per cent decline in mobile. However, industry Capex is projected to grow at a 2.4 per cent CAGR from 2024, fuelled initially by fixed broadband investments for fibre roll-out, and later in the period by a revival in mobile Capex as operators prepare for 6G,” the report said.

The report further said automotive and mobility sector would power cellular Internet-of-Things (IoT) services, driven in large part by increased adoption of smart automobiles.