How Prepared Are Main Candidates for 2023 Presidential Poll?

With less than three months to 2023 presidential poll, Emameh Gabriel examines the readiness of the four prominent presidential candidates for the election.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has declared its readiness to conduct the 2023 presidential election. The Commission had before now disclosed that it has received substantial funds for the polls.

The Commission has also revealed that it has taken proactive measures to reprint extra ballot papers for the presidential election should the case for a re-run arise in order to save the country from constitutional crisis.

INEC National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education committee, Festus Okoye, made the disclosure recently during a round table talk with Bureau Chiefs and Editors of media houses.

Interestingly, the Electoral Act, 2022 (as amended) has made the 2023 campaigns more cumbersome for political parties and their candidates. The introduction of BVAS and other electronic devices for the election has further restored confidence in the electorate who believe that their votes will count this time.

18 political parties and their presidential candidates have been cleared by INEC for the presidential election.

The candidates will seek to convince the 96.3 million voters why they deserve to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari at Aso Rock from May 29, 2023 after the Saturday, February 25, 2023 presidential election.

Candidates for the presidential election include Accord Party (AP), Imumolen Christopher; Action Alliance (AA), Al Mustapha Hamza; African Action Congress (AAC), Omoyele Sowore; African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kachikwu Dumebi; Action Democratic Party (ADP), Sani Yabagi; All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu.

Also on the ballot are All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Umeadi Chukwudi; Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Ojei Princess Chichi; Action Peoples Party (APP), Nnadi Osita; Boot Party (BP), Adenuga Oluwafemi; Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi; New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso; National Rescue Movement (NRM), Osakwe Johnson; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar; Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Abiola Kolawole; Social Democratic Party (SDP), Adebayo Adewole; Young Peoples Party (YPP), Ado-Ibrahim Abdulmalik; and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), Dan Nwanyanwu.

The figure of registered voters for the 2023 general elections has a little above 10 million (96 million) difference as against the 82 million people registered for the 2019 election, in which only about 28 million turned up to vote.

But this could be higher in 2023 because of heightened interest in some quarters and perceived disenchantment among some citizens across the country.

But beyond this, how prepared are the candidates gunning for the plump job? Projections from both local and international monitoring groups, had it that there might be a stalemate at the end of ballot next year.

The National Democratic Institute and National Republican Institute of the United States of America believe that the 2023 presidential election may go into a runoff.

Like other projections, the thought that the February 2023 presidential election might not be different from what was experienced in the Fourth Republic, is not ruled out.

A delegation of the two Institutes, which visited Nigeria between 13 and 22 July, 2022 for pre-election assessment, said the election may be so tight that it may go into a runoff.

They said emergence of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, as viable “Third Forces” has excited many young Nigerians. If a third party draws sufficient support, a runoff presidential election could be a real possibility for the first time since the transition to democracy.

Although 18 political parties have been cleared by the INEC for the election, there are clear indications that the election will be a four horse race with former Lagos State governor and strongman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu holding the banner for his party, former vice president  Atiku Abubakar, looks a strong contender for his party, the PDP and former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party as well as Rabiu Kwankwaso pushing the mandate of his newly party, NNPP.

The new entrants, Obi and Kwankwaso, who is also building a strong bloc in the North, have cumulatively triggered a new wave of political migration and re-alignment by politicians schemed out and disaffected with the two major political parties.

While Kwankwaso’s NNPP has for sometime become the beautiful bride for aggrieved politicians particularly in the Northeast and Northwest, Obi’s Labour Party has witnessed a resurgence across the country as  youthful politicians rally to what they now tagged, ‘Obi-dient’ call, seeking to upstage the two dominant political parties, the APC and PDP.

How prepared are the presidential candidates?

APC’s Tinubu

The ruling party came out of its presidential primary unsettled with some of its members believed to be loyal to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Hon Rotimi Amaechi, who contested the party’s presidential primary against Bola Tinubu reportedly switching their loyalty to either Labour Party or the newly formed NNPP.

While some of them have remained undecided, the party has shown some level of cohesion as it continues to woo back the ranks of its agrieved members.

The formation of the party’s presidential campaign council was done in such a way to carry most of its aggrieved members along. For instance, major leaders of Osinbajo’s campaign organisations were drafted into the PCC to give them some sense of belonging.

The move has to some extent helped to calm fray nerves, especially among undecided party faithful who have initially vowed not to work for Tinubu.

The APC’s ongoing nationwide campaign and mobilisation have proven to be successful so far. With Tinubu’s family taking off some of the responsibilities from him and reaching out to Nigerians and various groups across some states in the country, analysts believe that such strategy has placed him ahead of others in the race.

For instance, his wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, as well as wife of the vice presidential candidate have both teamed up with the women wing of the party led by the national women leader for a nationwide women mobilisation. Tinubu’s children have also been engaged in similar ventures to woo more voters for the party.

Tinubu’s recent meeting with the leadership of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) was another move by the party not only to heal wounds but also to disabuse the minds of Nigerians against his choice of Senator Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim as a running mate, a decision that left the APC in disarray and almost tore it apart.

Tinubu’s choice of a fellow muslim as running mate against the warning of many Nigerians, especially from the southern extraction was greeted by angst, a decision that caused some prominent members of the party to dump the party for either PDP or Labour Party.

Beyond his refusal to appear before several television interviews, debates and town-hall meetings organised by media organisations, a situation that is still raising public concerns about his fitness to run the country, the APC presidential candidate has had direct engagement with all sections of the society, including farmers, captain of industries, civil society organisations and entrepreneurs.

He has provided the electorate with a clear manifesto and action plans on how to take up governance upon his emergence at the 2023 polls.

In his 80-page policy document released by the former Lagos State Governor, the document promises to tackle insecurity, food security, unemployment, stops oil subsidy and increase crude oil production.

Minister of State Labour and Employment and spokesperson for the party presidential campaign, Festus Keyamo, told THISDAY in a recent interview that the party has the best and easy candidate to sell to Nigerians.

The introduction of the Agro Commodity Directorate in the party’s presidential campaign committee has been described as one its biggest strategies to expand its winning frontiers.

Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Dr Mohammad Mahmood Abubakar, at a recent  interactive session with media representatives, described the move as one of the best decisions taken by Tinubu.

Abubakar who has been a driving force in rural farmers mobilization, described the creation of an Agriculture and Commodity Directorate by the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) Bola Tinubu, the party’s presidential campaign committee as step to build on President Buhari’s achievements in the agricultural sector.

He said the Tinubu-Shettima Presidential Campaign Council initiatives was first of its kind in the composition of a Campaign Committee among political parties, noting that the move was amber that has shared lights on Tinubu’s deep vision for the country’s agricultural sector.

His words: “His ideas are top notch and I am confident of what he (Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu) is bringing on board. Farmers constitute a greater part of the country’s population, bringing them into the campaign council is a win-win for the party and farmers across the country:.

However, the party’s continued delay in releasing campaign funds to its various campaign committees and support groups is raising concerns among various groups.

PDP’s Atiku

The PDP will once again have former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on the ballot next year. This will be Atiku’s 4th attempt since after serving as vice president under former president Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007.

Atiku has anchored his campaign on restructuring and has insisted that it is the only way to set the country on the path of progress. His strong commitment to restructure the country has endeared him to many Nigerians, especially the South East where the agitations for secession have echoed over the years.

His emergence as the presidential candidate of the main opposition PDP came with a huge price that the party is still paying through its nose till today. Like some will say, Atiku’s candidacy has rather become the biggest misfortune for the PDP.

For some, Atiku would have been better off not contesting. He is not only faced with the rise of a Third Force led by his former running mate, Peter Obi on one hand and a former party man, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who have both harvested a lot from his political capital, while he is also battling to survive the storm rocking his party, staged by some regional blocs.

Atiku’s emergence as the party presidential candidate against the wish of some southern forces has left the PDP in chaos and the forces expected to bring order to it have not only failed to do so but also seem overwhelmed by the magnitude of disenchantment among its aggrieved members currently spearheaded by Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike and four others.

While this remains an encumbrance for the main opposition party, ego and lack of patriotism have also taken the better part of some members of the party, leaving it in shred and vulnerable to implosion, while it staggers ahead with uncertainty over its future.

Love is totally lost and trust broken between the warring camps in the party, which signals a long walk to resolving their differences. With limited time available before the elections, it seems almost impossible to heal the bruises suffered so far even if both sides are ready to sheath swords.

The bone of contention in the party is the insistence of aggrieved members including five sitting governors led by Governor Wike pg Rivers State who also contested the party’s presidential primary election, that the national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, should vacate his position.

The agrieved members had hinged their argument on two conditions; the constitution of the party on rotation must not only be respected but for the sake of equity and justice, the national chairman of the party should be zoned to the South. Ayu’s resignation was and is still the centre of discussion.

Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state wants a pound of flesh from the PDP National Chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, the man who allegedly rigged the PDP presidential election against him. PDP’s presidential flag bearer, Atiku Abubakar, seems unyielding and unwilling to make Ayu, the man who manipulated the process that earned him the party’s presidential ticket, a sacrificial lamb for Wike’s presumed vendetta.

Efforts by the party’s NEC which is the highest decision making body of the party has failed to turn the fortune of the party around.

Wike had accused Ayu in a live broadcast of rigging the PDP presidential primary election that earned former Vice President Atiku Abubakar the party’s presidential ticket, after which he allegedly collected N1 billion from a particular presidential aspirant.

He has also labelled both Atiku and Ayu as individuals that cannot be trusted, describing them as embodiments of deceit whose characters only portray the PDP in negative light.

While Wike has continued to de-market Atiku and the leadership of the party’s NEC, Atiku, like his APC counterpart, who is currently on a nationwide campaign to build on what is left of the party, has maintained that the fallout of some agrieved governors of party will not in any way affect his chances of winning the 2023 presidential election.

Atiku recently boasted that he will win by first ballot as against recent predictions.

Some analysts believe that the main opposition PDP has been damaged almost beyond repair. They said Atiku’s inordinate ambition to become president at all cost has ruined a better part of PDP’s chance to win the presidential election.

Wike has threatened to work against Atiku in Rivers State. He has promised logistics and mobilisation for Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, in Rivers State against his party’s presidential candidate, Atiku.

The PDP itself seems to have been consumed by a crisis bigger than its leadership from top to bottom and its chances at the polls have been dented by Wike’s continued outbursts. It will take a whole lot of effort for a party to go into an election with such damning allegations by one of its key members to win the trust of Nigerians to vote its presidential candidate.

While the crises in the party looks almost impossible to resolve, the issue of inadequate funding for the Peoples Democratic Party Campaign Council is also raising concerns among members of the party.

A source close to Atiku’s camp last week disclose to THISDAY that Atiku is being careful with the release of funds for certain reasons he said he could not explain.

But the rumour in public spaces is that investors and campaign donors are not willing to make any donation till they are certain of his chances at the polls.

While many are of the believe that Atiku’s vault is close to empty, others still think that he is being careful not to be reckless with spending this time, having learnt from his 2019 experience.

The unwillingness of PDP governors to donate to his campaign is also rasing concerns.

The recent threats by Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed to back out of the Atiku Presidential Campaign speaks volume.

With five aggrieved governors’; Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Samuel Ortom (Benue) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo) determination to sustain their battle, Atiku is in for a long walk to Aso Rock.

Labour Party’s Obi

Labour Party and its presidential candidate, Peter Obi, have become the new political bride in the country. Obi came into the political space and sprang a surprise that has caught the attention of the international community.

The defection of the former Anambra State governor from the PDP to Labour Party has without doubt attracted an unprecedented good will to the party as Obi-Dient has become the reigning catchword.

The OBIdient movement is clearly an expression of frustration and disenchantments among the citizens. It is indeed an era of reawakening that has given rise to the real Third Force movement.

His entrance into the race on the platform of an unpopular party and the wave that greeted it thereafter, took many Nigerians by surprise, especially in a country where it is unlikely for a candidate who is not running under the two major political parties to be a key contender in a presidential election.

Obi has enjoyed the goodwill of the Christian community. He has been endorsed at several worship centres and by clergymen of several denominations of the christiandom.

Like some analysts have asked before now. What could be Obi’s selling point? Is it because his region, South East, ideally ought to produce the next President of the country? Is it because of his style of politics or his past record in public office and style of governance? Could it be that his entrance into the race provoked the desires of millions of disenchanted youth and undecided voters, most of whom had hitherto wanted to throw their weight behind the candidacy of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo who they believe is one of the best for the country? Is religion dictating the tune for him?

The fact that his unprecedented rise to fame has extended a little longer than expected, is somewhat surprising to the leading political parties in the country.

But in all of this, how prepared is Labour Party and its presidential candidate ahead of the February 2023 presidential polls?

On the level of preparedness of the Labour Party for the presidential poll, the Head of Media Obi-Datti Campaign Organisation, Diran Onifade, told THISDAY that the party is “without doubt the most prepared party in the race”.

He said: “Our candidates have been interacting with  professional groups at home and in diaspora, including the Nigerian Bar association, the Nigerian Institute of Architects and the Nigerian Guild of Editors.

“We are engaging with clerics of both faiths. We have addressed rallies and townhalls in many states including Nassarawa, Benue, Abia, Edo and Oyo.

“We are in the media everyday of the week. Our candidates make personal appearances on radio and television programmes. Our candidates go wherever Nigerians want them because they see this race as an interview session being conducted by Nigerian in the process of hiring a Chief Executive unlike the other guys who believe they own Nigeria and will appropriate Nigeria’s presidency on their own terms.

“We are, without a doubt the most prepared party in the race. We have two solid candidates, Peter Obi, as Presidential Candidate and Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, as his running mate. These are candidates with outstanding personal achievement and sterling record of public service, he added. 

Labour Party has no doubt since risen to prominence since the defection of Obi into the party. The party has enjoyed the people’s goodwill, especially from the youths who are currently the driving force behind the OBIdient movement.

For instance, the party has recently launched the Obi- polling units canvassing soldiers, charged with the responsibility to canvass for more supporters at various polling units as well to monitor polling units during elections.

However, there is lack of cohesion among stakeholders in the party. The Labour Party has tried as much to manage a cold war within its ranks, especially between its old and the new members, a development some said might lead to an implosion if Peter Obi, who many have said has continued to remain indifferent over reports of the crisis in the party.

For instance, it is less than 90 days to the election, some members of the party are still agrieved over the composition of the presidential campaign council.

Recently, there were calls by the Ogun State chapter of the party over what was described as lopsided composition of the party’s presidential campaign council.

Recently, Ogun State chapter of the party called for the immediate dissolution of the party’s presidential campaign council over alleged lopsidedness in its composition.

The position of the State branch of the LP, was expressed by the party’s State Chairman, Comrade Samuel Ashade, at a news conference in Abeokuta, Ogun State capital.

Ashade said the Presidential Campaign Council’s composition did not reflect federal character in line with the constitution of the party.

He also expressed concern over the inclusion of strange names in the Campaign Council, when the National Publicity of the party, Dr. Abayomi Arabambi, who ought to be an automatic member of the council, was not included.

Recall that the Doyin Okupe-led Peter Obi Presidential Campaign Organization, which had earlier released its timetable for election rally, sent out invitations for the official unveiling of the Peter Obi Presidential Campaign Council but was swiftly countered by the National Publicity Secretary, Arambambi Abayomi, who described Okupe as an usurper with the intention to hijack the structure of Labour Party

Beyond the rumour of corruption rocking the party, funding has remained a major challenge the Labour Party is contending with.

The National chairman of the party, Julius Abure, recently told newsmen in Abuja that only N10 million has been donated to the party’s account by Nigerians.

Abure used the the opportunity to appeal to Nigerians to continue to give support to the party either through financial donations or campaign materials.

NNPP’s Kwankwaso

The presidential candidate of the newly formed New Nigerian People’s Party, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso like Peter Obi, defected from Peoples Democratic Party to actualise his presidential ambition.

The former Kano State Governor is one of the top contenders in the race but also seems like a spoiler due to certain factors.

He has anchored his campaign on security, employment, among others, which he said are the bane of development in the country.

Kwankwaso had in the early stage of the NNPP engaged in talks with Obi who wanted him as running mate with a bid to form an alliance ahead of the 2023 elections to defeat the two major political parties, the PDP and the APC.

However, the failure of both parties to come to terms for a merger as third force has created more ground for the ruling APC to leverage on. The talks between both parties failed on ground of who becomes the party’s flag bearer of the merger and who runs as a running mate between the dou of Obi and Kwankwaso.

No doubt, Kwankwaso is an experienced politician with grassroots followership in some parts of the north and even north central. His Kwankwasia movement is deeply rooted in the grassroots and this has earned him the political capital to leverage on.

But this will not guarantee him victory at the polls. Like Obi’s Labour Party, the NNPP has no state under its control. 

Rumour from the grapevine has it that Kwankwaso might later collapse his structure for a particular presidential candidate to form an inclusive government. 

He has however dismissed the rumour of his plan to step down for a presidential candidate, specifically Atiku Abubakar.

Kwankwaso explained that he would not have left PDP if he would step down for Atiku only a few months to the presidential election.

NNPP also recently expressed its readiness for the 2023 general elections.

Spokesman of the party, Dr. Agbo Major, who spoke exclusively with THISDAY said NNPC will leverage on its grassroots support and provisions of the new electoral law. 

He said: “We are a grassroots party, a party that belongs to the ordinary people, a party that has presented candidates that the electorate cannot resist. NNPP is indeed a party to beat.”

The party spokesperson hinted that, the new Electoral Act 2022, has a provision for a marathon campaign period of six months and the party has come out with its campaign programmes in phases.

Major said: “The second phase is the one that our presidential candidate, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, is about to complete the proposed visit to Gombe State. It is centered around inaugurating party secretariats and campaign offices of candidates including presidential campaign offices across the country.

“The next phase is the one Nigerians are used to which is rallies. For us, as a party, we don’t attach too much importance to rallies, because we believe that Nigerians are tired of these rallies, where empty promises are made, which is what the APC, PDP and LP are doing now.”

He further stated that, “For us, we have presented the best candidate, who has gone into the hinterland to establish individual social contract with Nigerians, which is unprecedented, like his recent visit to Ugep in Cross River State. It is not on record in the history of presidential election in Nigeria that a presidential candidate has gone to that level.

“We have articulated and presented to Nigerians a blueprint that touches all spheres of their lives and has presented very pragmatic approach of solving our traditional problems of insecurity, unemployment, decaying infrastructure, nose diving educational fortunes.

“We are also at the process of condensing the 162-page blueprint into pamphlet size to be translated into various languages for the electorate to use as checklist for our performance,  when we form government in May 2023.

“The choice is now for Nigerians to make for whether they want to remain strangulated or to make progress and choose whether to stay in darkness or to enjoy light. We are set as a party and we strongly believe that  Senator (Engr) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is the candidate to beat in the 2023 general election.