Total Wagers for Qatar World Cup to Draw $35bn

A combination of factors, including playing during the winter months when fewer people are on holiday, compared to past World Cup tournaments held in summer, have shot the expected wagers up to an all-time high by 65% more than previous editions, writes John Bamidele 

Barclays Plc analysts have predicted that this year’s World Cup in Qatar will have a 65 per cent increase in wagers more than the previous edition after a surge in online gambling during the pandemic. According to Barclays, the figure will be a $35 billion increase. The jump in sports betting is expected to boost profits of sports giant Ladbrokes parent Entain which Barclays says has more world cup exposure than Paddy Power owner Flutter Entertainment occasioned by the former’s strong presence in Europe and Latin America, according to Bloomberg. 

James Rowland Clarke, an analyst, noted that “betting activity is being helped by matches played at prime times for Europe during winter months when fewer people are on holiday, compared to past tournaments held in the summer. This gives an extra boost to the gambling industry which has also benefited from the stickiness of growth generated during lockdowns.” 

He added that “match result in Qatar so far have been marginally operator-friendly because as of midday Friday there had been five tied games, an outcome that generally benefits odds compilers as most bettors tend to wager on one team winning.”

Entain’s wider European and Latin America exposure is seen as giving it an edge over Flutter, which has more concentrated exposure to the United Kingdom and Italy. According to a Bloomberg report, Barclays rates the stock overweight and has an equal-weight recommendation on Flutter, raising revenue and earnings estimates for both. 

Meanwhile, wagering on the tournament in the United States is expected to be relatively small, with Bloomberg Intelligence forecasting $1.7 billion of bets, just a fraction of the $7.6 billion wagered on the Super Bowl and $3.1 billion on NCAA basketball’s March Madness according to analysts Brian Egger. Barclays further cited data from betting intelligence firm H2 Gambling Capital, saying customers of licensed bookmakers will stake about $400 million on each group match played at this World Cup, about $1 billion per knockout game and up to $2.5 billion on the final. Analysts, however, cautioned that the cost-of-living crisis and the lead-up to Christmas could result in pressure on customers’ betting wallets.