Nigeria’s 8-month Petrol Demand Slumps to 11.7bn Litres Amid Rising Pump Prices

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria consumed about 11.7 billion litres of petrol between January and August 2026, as demand weakened steadily, amid rising pump prices caused mainly by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.

An analysis of monthly factsheets published by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that average daily petrol consumption, based on reported monthly offtake, stood at about 48.2 million litres during the eight-month period.

According to the eight-month trend, in the first quarter Nigerians consumed an average 54.7 million litres of petrol daily, driven by January demand of 60.2 million litres per day, February’s 56.9 million litres and March’s 47.3 million litres.

Besides, average daily consumption fell to 48.2 million litres in the second quarter, comprising 51.1 million litres in April, 46.3 million litres in May and 47.4 million litres in June.

The decline became more pronounced in the July-August period, when average daily consumption dropped to about 38.6 million litres. July recorded the lowest monthly demand at 35.7 million litres per day, while August consumption recovered to 41.5 million litres per day.

An analysis of the figures indicated that the contraction in demand widely coincided with higher petrol prices during the period. On the demand side, petrol consumption weakened considerably as higher prices and economic pressures reduced the volume consumed by motorists and businesses.

In Lagos, the average actual pump price rose from an average of N804.50 per litre in January to N1,291.11 in August; N1,340.1 in Abuja; N1,367.85 in Kano; N1,294.62 in Calabar; N1,364.76 in Sokoto; N1,384.85 in Maiduguri; N1,289.85 in Ibadan and N1,329.33 in Enugu, remaining at over 50 per cent above the January level.

Over the same period, petrol consumption in August was roughly 31 per cent below the January level, underscoring the impact of higher pump prices and economic pressures on fuel demand.

In the same vein, while consumption weakened, the supply side underwent a significant structural change, with domestic refining increasingly displacing imports during the first half of the year before a sharp reversal in June and July.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery emerged as the dominant source of locally refined petrol, with its capacity utilisation rising from 61.27 per cent in January to 78.13 per cent in February, 93.62 per cent in March and 99.12 per cent in April.

Utilisation remained above nameplate capacity in May and June, at 101.25 per cent and 101.36 per cent respectively and subsequently to 105.21 per cent in August.

Also, the improvement in domestic refining was reflected in the supply balance. In January, domestic refineries supplied an average 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, compared with 24.8 million litres from imports, giving local supply a 61.8 per cent share of total receipts.

In February, domestic supply accounted for an even larger 92.4 per cent of total receipts as imports fell to just three million litres per day, while local refineries supplied 36.5 million litres.

Domestic supply remained dominant in March, April and May, when refinery receipts stood at 34.2 million, 40.7 million and 41.5 million litres per day respectively. Imports during the three months were 5.9 million, 3.7 million and 5.9 million litres per day.

However, the emerging import-substitution trend was disrupted in June, as petrol imports rose sharply to 18.1 million litres per day, representing an increase of about 207 per cent from May, while domestic refinery receipts declined to 32.5 million litres per day. As a result, the local refining share of total receipts fell to 64.2 per cent, from 87.6 per cent in May.

The pressure intensified in July, when imports climbed further to 19.7 million litres per day, while domestic receipts fell to 25.8 million litres. Local refining consequently accounted for only 56.7 per cent of total daily petrol receipts.

Similarly, the refinery’s performance improved markedly in August. Domestic petrol receipts rose to 35.9 million litres per day, representing a 39 per cent increase from July, while imports declined by about 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres per day.

The NMDPRA figures further highlighted the continued limited contribution of the government-owned refineries. The Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries recorded no petrol production during the eight-month period covered by the analysis, leaving the country’s domestic PMS supply heavily dependent on the Dangote facility and other private refining activity.

The changing supply pattern was also accompanied by fluctuations in national petrol stock sufficiency. The country began the year with 33 days of petrol stock cover in January, which eased to 30.8 days in February. It fell to 21.2 days in March and reached a low of 16 days in May amid tighter supplies.

Stock cover subsequently improved to 19.7 days in June, 22.4 days in July and 22.9 days in August, although the August position remained below the 30-day level regarded by the NMDPRA as the minimum threshold for national fuel security.

The eight-month figures pointed to two parallel developments in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market. On the supply side, domestic refining made significant gains, reducing the country’s reliance on imported petrol in several months.

However, the sharp increase in imports in June and July demonstrated that the transition from import dependence to domestic supply remains vulnerable to disruptions in local refinery output, as consumption averaged below the NMDPRA’s 50 million litres-per-day benchmark.