Nigeria Meets OPEC Quota for Third Straight Month Despite Overall Output Fall

• NUPRC blames July decline on operational issues in Erha, Akpo fields

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria has met and exceeded its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production quota for the third consecutive month, despite a decline in overall production in July 2026, latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has shown.

According to the figures from the upstream regulator, Nigeria produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July, slightly above its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. An additional 0.17 million bpd of condensate brought the country’s combined crude oil and condensate production to 1.67 million bpd during the month.

The performance represented a modest but significant improvement in Nigeria’s ability to consistently meet its OPEC commitment, following years of production shortfalls caused by operational disruptions, crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and investment constraints.

However, the latest figures also showed that the improvement in quota compliance came amid a month-on-month decline in overall output.

According to the NUPRC statistics, average combined production of crude oil and condensate fell by about 4 per cent in July compared with the previous month of June which was 1.735 million bpd. Total production (oil and condensate) in January was 1.62 million bpd; it was 1.48 million in February; 1.56 million bpd in March; 1.66 million bpd in April and 1.7 million bpd in May.

However, the upstream regulator attributed the July decline largely to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields, which affected production during the period under review.

“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output,” the commission said.

Despite the challenges at the two fields, the NUPRC said production operations across most other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures to maintain production efficiency and minimise the impact of operational constraints.

Daily production also fluctuated considerably during the month. The highest combined crude oil and condensate output recorded in July was 1.78 million bpd, while the lowest stood at 1.57 million bpd.

The figures underlined the continuing volatility in Nigeria’s upstream sector, where disruptions at major producing assets can have a noticeable impact on national production.

The distinction between crude oil and condensate is important in assessing Nigeria’s performance against its OPEC quota because while total liquids production averaged 1.67 million bpd, condensate is not included in the crude production quota set by OPEC.

Consequently, Nigeria’s crude oil production of 1.505 million bpd was about 5,000 bpd above its 1.5 million bpd quota in July despite the fall in overall production.

The latest performance comes as the federal government and industry regulators continue efforts to raise crude production, attract fresh investment into the upstream sector and improve the operating environment for oil companies.

Higher oil production remains critical to Nigeria’s fiscal position because crude exports are a major source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Sustained increases in output could also help the country maximise its OPEC allocation and strengthen its position ahead of future adjustments to production quotas.

Nigeria has historically struggled to produce at levels permitted by OPEC, with production losses arising from insecurity, technical challenges, maintenance activities, ageing facilities, funding constraints and delays in bringing new projects on stream.

The recent three-month run of meeting its quota therefore signals an improvement in production performance, although the July decline showed that the gains remain vulnerable to disruptions affecting key assets.

“Despite the challenges, production operations across most other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures aimed at maintaining production efficiency and minimising the impact of operational constraints,” the NUPRC stated.