The Absurdity of Ogun’s 2027 Governorship Lineage Politics

Femi Ogbonnikan

This should be a season of sober reflection for Nigeria’s leading opposition figures. Months into a new election cycle, the pursuit of power is still driven by sentiment, emotion, and blame-shifting. They lost the last elections. They appear to have learnt nothing. As they drift without a clear strategy, they blame the government for every misstep.
The pattern is repeating at the sub-national level. In Ogun State, a political paradox is unfolding. For the first time in decades, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is fielding a formidable candidate against a weak opposition figure who relies solely on blood appeals to win votes. At a moment when citizens are demanding competent leadership, economic revival, jobs, security, and poverty reduction, the opposition is instead waging a negative campaign against Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (aka Yayi), the APC’s governorship consensus candidate.​
That campaign took an absurd turn last week. Instead of interrogating policy, performance, or plans for 2027, a segment of the opposition chose to frame ancestry, paternity, and family lineage as the central issue of the governorship contest. The episode recently re-echoed when Adeola attended a reception hosted by his maternal family and supporters in Kemta, Abeokuta, described as a “glorious home-coming.” The event was organised by the people of Kemta to welcome him as one of their own and to endorse his political ambition. It was a routine political gesture in a state where politicians often trace roots, visit hometowns, and seek traditional validation before elections. But one irredentist critic, Ibrahim Afolabi, used the moment to launch a broader inquisition. He challenged Adeola to publicly address questions surrounding his ancestry, identity, and source of wealth, asking about his maternal siblings in Kemta, his historical family records, and why his name allegedly changed from Sulaiman Ogunleye to Solomon Adeola. He insisted the public has a right to know the background of anyone aspiring to occupy the state’s highest political office, arguing that if Adeola was truly recognised as a son of Kemta, his family should have formally presented him to the Oluwo of Kemta before a public reception.​These are mere distractions. Strip away the packaging, the fundamental flaw in the opposition’s logic becomes glaring because the core of this smear campaign rests on the archaic idea that biological lineage somehow dictates administrative capability. Let it be stated clearly that blood ties do not have anything to do with the capacity to govern. A family tree, no matter how deeply rooted or meticulously documented, does not build infrastructure, balance a state budget, or design macro-economic policies. History is replete with leaders of impeccable ancestral pedigree who presided over administrative disasters, just as it celebrates visionary leaders from humble or complex backgrounds who transformed societies.
While Senator Adeola’s blood tie with Yewa is not in doubt—a connection thoroughly authenticated by history and community validation—it is not his sole qualification. He does not ask Ogun citizens to vote for his DNA; rather, he combines his undeniable paternity link with tangible capacity, requisite experience, and profound intellectual prowess. His journey through the legislature—from the Lagos State House of Assembly to the House of Representatives, and then serving as a two-term Senator for Lagos West before his historic transition to representing Ogun West—is a masterclass in governance. This unparalleled legislative trajectory requires deep intellect, a grasp of complex public finance, and an exceptional ability to navigate the corridors of power for the benefit of his people. To reduce a man with such an enviable repository of statecraft to a debate over maternal aunts is a disservice to the intellectual sophistication of the Ogun electorate.​ Instead of matching this formidable profile with a superior development agenda, the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Oladipupo Adebutu, has chosen to double down on divisive ethnic sentiments. It is a weird and deeply flawed political calculation for Adebutu, who is aggressively promoting the ethnic card, to think that power will simply change hands from one Iperu man to another Iperu man. Governor Dapo Abiodun, the incumbent helmsman of the state, hails from Iperu-Remo in Ogun East. For Adebutu, who also hails from Iperu-Remo, to present himself as the alternative under the guise of geopolitical equity is the height of political irony and strategic tone-deafness. How does the PDP candidate justify a transition of power that effectively keeps the governorship within the same square mile, while simultaneously accusing others of marginalization?
This calculation assumes that Ogun voters are blind to geography, fairness, and logic, exposing the opposition’s ethnic campaign as a self-serving charade. They reject inclusivity when it favours a prepared candidate from Ogun West, yet expect the state to acquiesce to an insular arrangement that ignores the foundational principles of rotational fairness across the senatorial districts.​
Ogun voters are being asked to litigate a senator’s paternity and family tree instead of his record in office. Senator Adeola’s three-year scorecard in Ogun West is public, physical, and undeniable. The latest in the series of his empowerment initiatives is the recent commissioning of impactful projects across the five local government areas in his Ogun West constituency. These include the construction of Bisi Popoola Street in Ayetoro, Obaladi Palace Road in Afon, the Moriwi-Oke Agbede-Iwoye network, and Ona Odo Road in Ilara. Others include Ultra-Modern Markets in Ayetoro, Iboro, and Obada, as well as 12-classroom blocks at Oke-Ore Grammar School and Ketu College, alongside continuous scholarships, bursaries, ICT training, and laptop distributions. It also features Primary Health Centres in Ebute Igboro, Ijaka Oke, Atapele, Atan, and Sango Ota, new police stations in Ayetoro and Idiroko, and the Imeko-Afon Area Police Command. Those are verifiable projects that can be measured, visited, and audited. Whether they reduce post-harvest losses, increase school retention, or improve access to healthcare is a question of data and impact. That is the terrain on which a serious election should be fought.​ Instead, the opposition has chosen to litigate whether a man’s mother had siblings in Kemta, whether his name changed decades ago, and whether his wealth predates politics. None of those questions, even if answered to anyone’s satisfaction, will pave a single road or equip a single primary health centre. They are personal, not public; they are forensic, not policy-driven. The paternity frame is a thinly veiled ethnic argument. Afolabi’s insistence on maternal family presentation and historical records in Kemta is an attempt to draw a line around who counts as an Ogun indigene and on what terms. It is the same logic that reduces politics to bloodlines rather than competence. That is especially reckless at a time when Ogun people say they want economic revival and jobs. Border communities in Imeko-Afon and Yewa North have lived with logistical disadvantages for decades. Farmers lost harvests to bad roads, traders operated in open-air markets with no weather protection, and security gaps threatened cross-border trade. The current intervention model directly targets those friction points. Roads link farms to markets, structured markets protect goods and extend trading hours for women and micro-traders, grants and vocational tools turn infrastructure into small businesses, PHCs reduce catastrophic health spending, and police infrastructure stabilises trade corridors. To reduce all of that to “Where are your mother’s brothers?” is to insult the intelligence of voters who are measuring candidates against lived realities, not genealogies. None of this is to say public office holders should be above scrutiny. Wealth, conduct in office, and conflicts of interest are legitimate matters for public debate. If a candidate cannot explain the source of assets, or if there are inconsistencies in official records, the media, civil society, and anti-corruption agencies have a vital role to play. But there is a difference between accountability and absurdity. Asking for asset declarations, business history, and compliance with the Code of Conduct is accountability. Demanding to know the names of a candidate’s maternal aunts and whether they attended a reception is absurdity. One belongs in an audit or a court; the other belongs in a family meeting. What voters demand in 2027 is capacity, competence, requisite experience in governance, and purposeful leadership.​
The APC has adopted Adeola as its consensus candidate, with endorsements cutting across the three senatorial districts. This broad consensus was not built on sentimental ancestry but on a demonstrated capacity to deliver the dividends of democracy. If the opposition is serious about competing, it must shift from genealogy to governance. Voters should demand answers to three fundamental questions from anyone seeking their mandate: first, what is your economic plan for Ogun’s economy, specifically regarding the manufacturing hubs in Ota and the vast agrarian corridors in Yewa? Secondly, how will you sustain and scale the infrastructure already delivered by the current administration of Governor Dapo Abiodun without abandoning critical projects mid-way? And thirdly, how will you secure the state, create sustainable jobs, and reduce poverty in measurable terms? Those are the questions that will determine the future of everyone in the state, not who stood beside a candidate at a home-coming. Nigeria’s opposition cannot afford another cycle of sentiment and finger-pointing. In Ogun state, the attempt to turn paternity into a campaign slogan reveals a deeper, more systemic problem: the complete absence of a development agenda. When a party cannot contest roads, markets, schools, and health centres on their merits, it resorts to ancestry. When it cannot match performance, it questions parentage. That is not strategy; it is surrender. If the opposition wants to be relevant in Ogun and nationally, it must do the hard work of policy formulation, coalition-building, and performance comparison. Until then, it will keep losing elections while arguing about family trees.
The choice before the people of Ogun State in 2027 is a stark reminder of the broader developmental challenges facing the nation. It is an invitation to choose between progress and regression, between verifiable performance and parochial distractions. When a political class elevates family trees above economic blueprints, it implicitly admits its lack of readiness for the arduous task of state-building. Ogun state, as the industrial hub of Nigeria and a critical agricultural gateway, deserves a contest of ideas, not a pedigree trial. The current political awakening among voters means that the old tools of ethnic balkanization and lineage mudslinging are losing their potency. The electorate is looking for leaders who understand that governance is a contract measured by tangible deliverables, not a hereditary privilege validated by social gatherings.
​Ultimately, the trajectory of this campaign will serve as a litmus test for the maturity of sub-national politics in Nigeria. For the opposition figures like Adebutu, the path to relevance does not lie in convoluted calculations that swap one hometown favourite for another under the guise of change, nor does it lie in sponsored inquisitions into an opponent’s ancestry. It lies in presenting a superior vision that can match or exceed the infrastructural expansions and economic reforms currently reshaping the state. As long as the opposition prefers the easy refuge of sentiment over the rigorous work of policy formulation, it will remain an architectural bystander in Ogun’s political evolution. The 2027 election will not be won by those who can trace the longest ancestry, but by those who can point to the most durable roads, the most secure communities, and the clearest path toward collective prosperity.

*Ogbonnikan writes from Okeagbede, in Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state