NISER Presents Medium-term Outlook for the Nigerian Economy

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) has presented its latest outlook for the Nigerian economy for the period 2026–2028 at the NISER Research Seminar Series (NRSS) held in Ibadan.

The seminar, themed, “Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028,” provided insights into the expected direction of the Nigerian economy over the medium term based on the Institute’s Macroeconometric Model (Version ’24).

According to the report, the Nigerian economy is expected to experience gradual stabilization and moderate recovery over the next three years.

The projections are driven by ongoing economic reforms, improving government revenue performance, stronger fiscal conditions, and continued growth in non-oil sectors of the economy.

NISER projects that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will increase steadily from 3.92 per cent in 2025 to 4.72 per cent in 2026, 4.85 per cent in 2027, and 5.02 per cent in 2028.

The projected growth is linked to continued policy reforms, infrastructure development, improving macroeconomic stability, and favourable global economic conditions.

The report also projects a steady decline in inflation over the medium term. Headline inflation is expected to reduce from 15.15 per cent in 2025 to 11.66 per cent in 2026, 7.86 per cent in 2027, and 5.61 per cent in 2028.

Food inflation is also projected to ease gradually, supported by expected improvements in agricultural production, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy measures.

On public finance, the report indicates gradual improvement in Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability indicators. In particular, the debt service-to-revenue ratio is expected to remain at more sustainable levels compared to the pressures experienced in the early 2020s. 

According to NISER, ongoing efforts to strengthen revenue mobilization, expand non-oil revenue sources, and implement fiscal reforms are beginning to produce positive results.