Tunde Lemo: Why I Deserve to Be Next Governor of Ogun State

Former Deputy Governor at the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Tunde Lemo, has declared his intention to contest the 2027 Ogun State governorship election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, positioning himself as a technocrat ready to drive the state’s next phase of growth. Lemo argues that Ogun’s rapid industrialisation and strategic proximity to Lagos demand a new layer of experienced, forward-thinking leadership capable of translating opportunity into sustained economic transformation. Beyond his ambition, he also speaks on expectations from the banking sector post-recapitalisation and the broader policy direction required to achieve inclusive and resilient growth for the Nigerian economy. Obinna Chima and Sunday Ehigiator provide the excerpts: 

There have been rumours on the streets that you intend to contest for the office of Ogun State Governor in the 2027 election. How true is this?

Yes, it’s very true. I believe that, having served the nation in the capacity I did and considering the developmental challenges today, it is appropriate for me to come in and, of course, offer myself for leadership. Not about myself, but about what we can deliver for the public good.

What gap do you believe exists in Ogun State governance that you are uniquely positioned to fill?

If you look at Ogun State since its creation 50 years ago, I would not say that we haven’t fared well. We can look back and say glory be to God. And I want to really commend everyone who has passed through Ogun State leadership, from the military leaders, from Olusegun Osoba and all the governors that we’ve had, even the present governor, they’ve all contributed their quota. However, the development has reached a point where we know that it’s very important we take another look at the leadership, building on what they have done in the past. As you know, Lagos is in the underbelly of Ogun State, and today, there is no other state that is industrialising at a rapid rate as Ogun State, which is why you saw what the president launched a few days ago, attracting not just national attention but global attention.

In other words, an airport, you will ask why an airport?  Looking at the fact that we need to have infrastructure to drive exports, non-oil exports, you will understand that an international cargo airport dedicated to international cargo, which will also carry passengers, is very important for us to build our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and then to aggressively grow our non-oil exports. If you look at Greater London, for instance, you see Heathrow there, very huge, and then you see Gatwick, which started like a military airport but now carries passengers. So, it has its own unique identity. You have the Stansted Airport, you have the City airport, and you have Luton, which is also close by. So, of course, there is economic justification for this. So, looking at the rate at which Ogun State will be industrialised, you need someone with the capacity, someone who is not just an administrator, but a technocrat who understands development in terms of the infrastructural needs of the people and so forth. Now we have a rail link from Lagos to Ibadan, which passes through Abeokuta. But for me, we should step it up a bit. Today, we should have a train going in that direction every hour. If you go to London today and you’re going to Luton, and if you miss your train, within 30 minutes, another one is going to Luton. That’s how it should be. And of course, that will quickly open up the entire Ogun State for real estate development. Integrated rural development will open up opportunities in the area of real estate development so that you can free up the congestion that we have in Lagos and yet still have very good access. Workers don’t need to stress themselves to pay N6 million or N10 million to get a two-bedroom flat when they can get one in Abeokuta and within 45 minutes, you’re reading your newspaper, and be in Lagos. So these are all the possibilities, apart from the fact that, yes, the entire place is industrialising, but we also need to do it in a coordinated manner. Some 23 years ago, I was in Jakarta, Indonesia. During the Obasanjo government, they took us there. In fact, the present president was also in the delegation. And we saw industrial clusters. We saw how things should be done. I’m not seeing enough of those things, unfortunately. So these are the things that we plan to do. When you look at Ogun State, it’s like every portion has a unique identity for its own niche to provide well for economic development. Luckily for us, Ogun State has joined the League of Oil-Producing States. There’s so much that has to happen there. And you know one unique thing about that? If you go into history, that oil was discovered about the same time that oil was discovered in Oloibiri in 1958. They just capped it off, as if this is not a priority for us over here. So that requires development as well. And then when you go to the Ewekoro area, in the savannah, northern part of Yewa, you will see an area where we could do a lot of ranching. A lot of that, the present government has identified that. I’m glad that, that is happening. But you also need the capacity to revive it and ensure that every part of Ogun State has development, and there are unique development opportunities. Bitumen is huge. We’re talking about bitumen in terms of some areas in Ogun State. The bitumen bed actually extends to Ogun State. And so, solid minerals, opportunities for agriculture, housing and urban development and then what about the export potential of Adire, Adire? Thank God the present government is trying its best, but we need to take it to another level. People should actually come in here from all over the world to see how we do Adire, and we should open the market up. In Bangladesh, the garment industry contributes so much to the GDP and it’s like they supply the entire Europe. The distance from the capital of Bangladesh to London is about 8,000 miles. Lagos is only 4,200 miles. In other words, half the distance we can actually replicate what is happening in Bangladesh. Go and Google the export potential of the garment industry in Bangladesh. It’s a major economic driver. It’s giving them an economic boost, yeah. Here in Ogun State, we can do so much more. And so for me, I cannot see those opportunities and close my eyes. I believe that I have what it takes, together with my colleagues and the brains that we have all around us in Ogun State. And you see, we have the best brains in Ogun State. We have industrialists and those who have made a name. As I said a few weeks ago, the IGR of Ogun State in the next decade if we harness all the resources that we have.

So, under which political party do you intend to contest?

I’m a full-fledged member of the All Progressive Congress (APC).

Within that same APC, we’ve seen, and heard about Senator Yayi and some other powerful politicians who are also interested in same position. How bright are your chances compared to theirs?

I believe and imagine all are loyal party members who will support me if I emerge, and if any of them also emerge, we will all support them. We are one family. It’s just like a royal family where you need to select one king or another. One prince will become the king. But the moment the king is made, all the princes, of course, will have to band together. That is what I see in APC. It’s not going to breed acrimony at all.

If elected as governor, what specific policies do you intend to introduce to accelerate investment and job creation opportunities?

The thing you need to look at is that today we’ve been talking about diversification of our economy and diversification of our exports. And it’s all been talk only, no action. Why hasn’t it happened at the level that it should have? It is competitive. And this is really what I want to deal with. In other words, Ogun State as an investment destination will have enough infrastructure and facilities that will make us globally competitive. Once you can drive that competitiveness, then, of course, you boost exports. Once you are competitive, the entire globe is your marketplace. And that is really an area I intend to drive towards. That is what I’m going to do. We will have world-class infrastructure that will make us competitive. Today, for instance, you ask anyone, why should a company with a huge facility, a manufacturing company, be on a generator? A generator is more expensive than gas and Ogun State is well located that we have access to gas infrastructure. If we can ensure that virtually every company operating in Ogun State has access to gas, particularly those that use heavy power, then it will bring down their production, costs and everything else will fall in place, including security costs. These are things that I plan to do. If you look back to about 40 to 50 years ago, you know, there were over 120 textile companies in Nigeria owned by Chinese and Indians. Why do you think they all disappeared? It was because the level of infrastructure that we had in Nigeria about 40 to 50 years ago was superior to the level of infrastructure that we had in India and in China. So, those Indian and Chinese companies were here. And as we were backsliding, they were upgrading their infrastructure; they closed down and moved over. So, it’s a no-brainer. If you then build your infrastructure and reverse the trend, then those companies will reappear. And that would be my vision.

What is your assessment of the state of the Nigerian economy today?

We would have been bankrupt if not for President Bola Tinubu’s intervention. There were about four major subsidies that we were carrying and nobody wanted to talk about them. The first, which we all know about, was fuel subsidy, but we also had forex subsidy, electricity subsidy, and subsidy on all sorts of other things. They were a serious burden on us. We played politics about it, and so forth. But President Tinubu came; he had courage. It was tough when he did it, but look at the way we have now started to see ourselves. It has freed up cash flow for the sub-nationals, and things are getting better. And we’ve reached a new equilibrium. There were very serious issues at the beginning. But I had said before that we would not die if the subsidies went away. It will only help us to reassess ourselves. And then, of course, the resources will be reallocated, albeit in a very orderly and efficient manner. And then we’ll reach a new equilibrium, and then, of course, life will continue, which is what has happened. Now, there are still challenges. As you can see, we’ve started now to grow above the lacklustre rate that we were growing before the current geopolitical tensions. The economy was predicted to grow by 4.1 per cent or so this year. But the temporary challenge we’re having now is as a result of the problem in the Middle East, which, by the grace of God, is abating. I read in the morning that these guys have now signed up to a two-week ceasefire window. But that’s just to test the waters. By the time they see the benefit, two weeks may become two months, and two months may become two years. I think they want to give each other a soft landing. We’ve realised now that we need ourselves. Nobody should bully anybody. God has created Iran in a very strategic position. They may not be as powerful as the United States, but strategically, they can also make it tough for any country. In our place, there’s an adage that says that a leper may not have fingers to make milk, but he can spill it away. So, having realised that now, there’s some consensus. Since the war started, petrol prices have risen by almost 50 per cent, diesel prices grew by over 85 per cent, or close to 90 per cent and inflation has been elevated. But when these things abate, hopefully we shall go back to where we were two months ago. I think this economy is set to rise. And all of us should support efforts of the current President to build an economy that is resilient. We’ve removed the fragilities. There is forex stability. You can no longer just pick a phone and get preferential treatment as it was before. And that is the way we should go. We’ve not had it so good since our days in the Central Bank of Nigeria 12 years ago. This is the time that the central bank has been returned to where it was when we served. And I want to praise Olayemi Cardoso and his team for a job well done.

If you were to advise the federal government, what do you think they should do to achieve inclusive growth?

Simple, inclusive growth is when you ensure that while the economy is growing, the employment rate is also growing, capacity utilisation is growing and poverty rate is reducing. It’s what I said before. I believe that the poverty issue has reached a critical stage. Unconditional cash transfer should happen at the very basic level. That is because there are people who wake up today, and they don’t know where the next meal will come from. We have high IDPs in so many places. Until we deal with all those things, we’re not going anywhere. You’re talking about inclusive growth, today, look at our food beds. Look at Benue State, Southern Kaduna, Plateau, all the way to Taraba, insecurity is a challenge. We must bring back the security of life and property. And then, of course, when we do that, we deal with infrastructure. That is when we can have inclusive growth. Agriculture is very important. Don’t forget that agriculture is still the largest sector in Nigeria that should employ about 50 per cent of the population. But most of the people in Benue, now and in other places, cannot go to their farms. So these are the things that have to happen: The security of life and property must be paramount, do more work on infrastructure, and then, of course, the rest will follow.

But do you think the current administration has been able to strike the right balance between reforms and social protection?

Again, it is only this government that is now talking about State Police. For me, not having State Police up to now, I just can’t understand why it has not happened. When you go to the UK, you see counties, they have their Police, the States have theirs and the federal police are there, the FBI, and so on. Security is everybody’s business. That is exactly what I’m saying. Communities should work with the local authorities, the state authorities, and the federal government. No matter how strong your police or your Army is, they work on intelligence. If you don’t have Intel, that is important; that is good. How do you deal with security? So each time we have a security problem, we shouldn’t only look in the direction of the government, but also look at ourselves. So, I believe that the way to go it is to fast-track State Police. Let’s decentralise. And the fears expressed about State Police are unfounded. For me, there are ways by which we can address that. Let me put it this way. The judiciary is independent. Why haven’t we said that the State Judiciary should be a federal judiciary because the Chief Judges of States will do the bidding of governors, and there will be no justice? Because we have the Nigeria Judicial Commission, and so on and so forth, we have institutions that ensure that they do what they are supposed to do. The Police Service Commission should be strengthened. The appointment of State Commissioner of Police, for instance, should not be left for the Governor. There must be a process that is seen, that is believed, that is understood and respected by all stakeholders. These are things that should produce them. How can an IG sit down in Abuja and supervise the entire 774 local governments, even if he’s a machine? It is not possible. So I believe the time is here when we should have state police.

The banking sector recapitalisation exercise has just concluded. As a former central banker, do you think Nigerian banks are sufficiently resilient today to withstand external shocks?

I believe they are. But it depends on the kind of external shocks that come. We had an external shock, if you remember, the meltdown of 2006-2007, and as strong as the American banking system was, a few banks failed, and so on. But if we have exogenous shocks, not of that magnitude, I think Nigerian banks are sufficiently resilient. And then, of course, the regulators are also doing the right thing by ensuring that they have raised their capital based. They just concluded the capital raising exercise, which is very fantastic. The CBN governor went public and said they’ve been able to rake in another N4.6 trillion to boost capital. And when you look at that in real and effective terms, it’s almost like returning those banks to the strength that they were when we concluded our own capital raising exercise in 2006. That is because N25 billion then approximates the minimum capital that they have now. But one thing they have done, which is better than what we did, is that during our own time was one-size-fits-all. But today it’s not one-size-fits-all. It depends on what your activities are. Are you a regional bank? Are you a national bank? Are you an international bank? The capital was in line with that. And then, Cardoso also now extended this by saying that there must also be stress tests, that each of them must conduct stress test and it is going to happen immediately now. All of this is to ensure resilience. And then, of course, there are also macro-prudential activities that central banks should embark upon, just to strengthen them. You see, macro-prudential activities are activities that are tweaked along the flow of the economic cycle. Like, for instance, during a recession, you are supposed to then utilise some of the reserve buffers that you had before and then during the time of boom, you are encouraged to ratchet up your provision, because it’s easier for you to make profits, so that you then save for the rainy day. All of these will be prescribed through different instructions at the macro-prudential level. I believe the regulators are doing the right thing. The banks are strong and resilient.  All the banks have increased their capital base, apart from the ones that are on central bank’s programme and the central bank is on top of it and I am very glad with the outcome.

From your experience, how soon do you advise the CBN to carry out these macro-prudential activities?

Immediately. Now that they have raised capital, they should encourage the banks to stress test. Of course, there are other things they need to do like contingency planning. Contingency planning is to say in case I am short of deposit, another bank will bail me out and vice versa. All of that should be done. Once the programme is done and checked, they should conduct a stress test. Stress testing has to do with a situation where i have this level of non-performing assets, supposed the economy goes down further and there are a few problems, and there is a spike in my non-performing assets from seven per cent to 12 per cent, will I still be able to cope? 

So once I conduct that stress test, I know how resilient I am. If I’m not very resilient there, then I have to slow down on my credit expansion, loan expansion, and so on and so forth. Once all of that is supervised, they also look at the rate at which the economy is growing. For me, they should keep their eyes on the capital market. I suspect that bubbles might be building up in the capital market, and this happens each time you increase capital, because banks have ability to then lend. If they unleash that lending and they are impatient, they may then begin to do a lot that would make share prices go up. But I know that there have been stronger regulations around making use of proprietary funds, how you can deploy depositors’ funds, or how you cannot deploy depositors’ funds in proprietary lending, and all of this. They should keep an eye on that so we don’t build another bubble that will bust later. But I think they are quite capable. Since the central bank went into narrow banking, they’re no longer doing fiscal activities and are becoming bankers to everybody. So, having now settled down to their primary role and doing it well, I’m very glad that they can keep all of us at peace because the banks have sufficient strength to withstand the exogenous shock should it arise.

With rising geopolitical tensions, what key fiscal and economic policy should we prioritise today?

Coordination. I’ll give you an example. Rising geopolitical tension is a major problem because energy costs will go up, and raw material costs will go up. And as that is going up, you then find out that you may then have to maybe suspend some levies that you give so that it doesn’t then feed into price levels like custom levies, the four per cent levy, and so on. Perhaps this may be a time you need to suspend it; those high prices will pass through, and they will cause a spike in inflation numbers. And when that happens, you may then begin to see whether you need to raise interest rates to be able to deal with inflation. Inflation is not always a monetary phenomenon. So it may provide challenges for the regulator to deal with this kind of cost-push inflation, which is why coordination is very, very important. What are the trade policies and the tariff measures you can implement to dampen the effects while not giving too much headache to the monetary authorities? Because what they do with one hand affects the other. I think we need to raise the level of coordination now. If I were the Finance Minister, I would insist that I speak with the CBN Governor at least once a week.

How do you see this current global tension affecting our economy?

We all now know how interrelated economies are. Just this morning, I was talking to my wife because, while we are in church, we are praying about a particular country far away. Some people say, “Ah, we are not living there, why are we praying about that?” But we now know that the Iran war can affect price levels here. Because even the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 per cent of energy, does that already. And then there is a surge in price. A lot of people don’t know that some of the crude that Aliko Dangote uses are imported. Because we’ve traded our crude through forward sales and others. So what I’m saying is that anything that happens offshore affects us. The first time we had a surge, even in the price of bread and everything, was about four years ago when the Ukraine war started. A lot of people didn’t know how dependent we were on wheat. And then the cost of building material went up because Ukraine was supplying maybe 60, 70 per cent of our metal. So this clearly shows that the Nigerian economy is very sensitive to global issues and ditto every other economy. That’s the way the economy, as strong as the US economy is, is the one pleading now for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. And you see, we are not learning lessons. You remember the first time we had an oil crisis was in 1973, when we had an oil boom in 1973. That was the Yom Kippur War, which led to the Doja War. It was the Yom Kippur War when Israel was fighting Egypt, and the Suez Canal was blocked. That was when the oil price first went up, and Nigeria began to make money. That was the beginning when we once said, oil was not a problem, money was not a problem, but how to spend it. And then over time, when we had the first Gulf crisis, when we had the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the same thing happened; when we had the first Gulf crisis, the first problem with Iraq, 1990, 1991, the same thing. And then there was Kuwait, Iran and Kuwait, and then the other ones. So each time we have a serious problem, we can see the effect on the economy. It’s not new, and it will continue to happen because the global economy is so well integrated now.

On a little lighter note, life after public service could be very demanding in different ways. How have you adjusted to this life, and what keeps you engaged today?

Before my 10 years in the Central Bank, I was a private sector person, a chartered accountant, a banker, and then I became a regulator and a public officer in the Central Bank. So, coming back, I made use of that knowledge also to build my business, to develop my business. While I was in CBN, of course, I had businesses that were being run by other people, not conflicting with my central bank role anyway, like the stockbroking firm, which has always been there. So, we developed them and expanded a few other things. And life has been very challenging. I’ve been quite busy. I only rested for one month when I left the CBN and reappeared here at my place of work and life continues. And it’s been quite interesting, really. I love what I do because I’m really busy every day of the week.

Outside of policy and economics, how do you relax and maintain a balanced lifestyle?

As I mentioned earlier, before we began this interview, I’m also a very good Christian and a pastor. So, I’m very busy on Sunday, ensuring that I preach and speak to my flock. And then, of course, I also believe in work-life balance. I relax a lot. I work hard, and I play hard. I go on holiday. I’m very close to my children. I have three grandchildren. I’m close to all of them. And then, of course, I socialise also. I love music. I love classical music. And everywhere you see good music, you’ll find me there, particularly Christian classical music. And, of course, I also exercise very well. I love sports. I play table tennis. And every day, I jog, including Sundays. So, if I go out there, we are trekking from here to Falomo; if you are not careful, you’ll be running after me.

  What gap do you believe exists in Ogun State governance that you are uniquely positioned to fill?

If you look at Ogun State since its creation 50 years ago, I would not say that we haven’t fared well. We can look back and say glory be to God. And I want to really commend everyone who has passed through Ogun State leadership, from the military leaders, from Olusegun Osoba and all the governors that we’ve had, even the present governor, they’ve all contributed their quota. However, the development has reached a point where we know that it’s very important we take another look at the leadership, building on what they have done in the past. As you know, Lagos is in the underbelly of Ogun State, and today, there is no other state that is industrialising at a rapid rate as Ogun State, which is why you saw what the president launched a few days ago, attracting not just national attention but global attention.

In other words, an airport, you will ask why an airport?  Looking at the fact that we need to have infrastructure to drive exports, non-oil exports, you will understand that an international cargo airport dedicated to international cargo, which will also carry passengers, is very important for us to build our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and then to aggressively grow our non-oil exports. If you look at Greater London, for instance, you see Heathrow there, very huge, and then you see Gatwick, which started like a military airport but now carries passengers. So, it has its own unique identity. You have the Stansted Airport, you have the City airport, and you have Luton, which is also close by. So, of course, there is economic justification for this. So, looking at the rate at which Ogun State will be industrialised, you need someone with the capacity, someone who is not just an administrator, but a technocrat who understands development in terms of the infrastructural needs of the people and so forth. Now we have a rail link from Lagos to Ibadan, which passes through Abeokuta. But for me, we should step it up a bit. Today, we should have a train going in that direction every hour. If you go to London today and you’re going to Luton, and if you miss your train, within 30 minutes, another one is going to Luton. That’s how it should be. And of course, that will quickly open up the entire Ogun State for real estate development. Integrated rural development will open up opportunities in the area of real estate development so that you can free up the congestion that we have in Lagos and yet still have very good access. Workers don’t need to stress themselves to pay N6 million or N10 million to get a two-bedroom flat when they can get one in Abeokuta and within 45 minutes, you’re reading your newspaper, and be in Lagos. So these are all the possibilities, apart from the fact that, yes, the entire place is industrialising, but we also need to do it in a coordinated manner. Some 23 years ago, I was in Jakarta, Indonesia. During the Obasanjo government, they took us there. In fact, the present president was also in the delegation. And we saw industrial clusters. We saw how things should be done. I’m not seeing enough of those things, unfortunately. So these are the things that we plan to do. When you look at Ogun State, it’s like every portion has a unique identity for its own niche to provide well for economic development. Luckily for us, Ogun State has joined the League of Oil-Producing States. There’s so much that has to happen there. And you know one unique thing about that? If you go into history, that oil was discovered about the same time that oil was discovered in Oloibiri in 1958. They just capped it off, as if this is not a priority for us over here. So that requires development as well. And then when you go to the Ewekoro area, in the savannah, northern part of Yewa, you will see an area where we could do a lot of ranching. A lot of that, the present government has identified that. I’m glad that, that is happening. But you also need the capacity to revive it and ensure that every part of Ogun State has development, and there are unique development opportunities. Bitumen is huge. We’re talking about bitumen in terms of some areas in Ogun State. The bitumen bed actually extends to Ogun State. And so, solid minerals, opportunities for agriculture, housing and urban development and then what about the export potential of Adire, Adire? Thank God the present government is trying its best, but we need to take it to another level. People should actually come in here from all over the world to see how we do Adire, and we should open the market up. In Bangladesh, the garment industry contributes so much to the GDP and it’s like they supply the entire Europe. The distance from the capital of Bangladesh to London is about 8,000 miles. Lagos is only 4,200 miles. In other words, half the distance we can actually replicate what is happening in Bangladesh. Go and Google the export potential of the garment industry in Bangladesh. It’s a major economic driver. It’s giving them an economic boost, yeah. Here in Ogun State, we can do so much more. And so for me, I cannot see those opportunities and close my eyes. I believe that I have what it takes, together with my colleagues and the brains that we have all around us in Ogun State. And you see, we have the best brains in Ogun State. We have industrialists and those who have made a name. As I said a few weeks ago, the IGR of Ogun State in the next decade if we harness all the resources that we have.

So, under which political party do you intend to contest?

I’m a full-fledged member of the All Progressive Congress (APC).

Within that same APC, we’ve seen, and heard about Senator Yayi and some other powerful politicians who are also interested in same position. How bright are your chances compared to theirs?

I believe and imagine all are loyal party members who will support me if I emerge, and if any of them also emerge, we will all support them. We are one family. It’s just like a royal family where you need to select one king or another. One prince will become the king. But the moment the king is made, all the princes, of course, will have to band together. That is what I see in APC. It’s not going to breed acrimony at all.

If elected as governor, what specific policies do you intend to introduce to accelerate investment and job creation opportunities?

The thing you need to look at is that today we’ve been talking about diversification of our economy and diversification of our exports. And it’s all been talk only, no action. Why hasn’t it happened at the level that it should have? It is competitive. And this is really what I want to deal with. In other words, Ogun State as an investment destination will have enough infrastructure and facilities that will make us globally competitive. Once you can drive that competitiveness, then, of course, you boost exports. Once you are competitive, the entire globe is your marketplace. And that is really an area I intend to drive towards. That is what I’m going to do. We will have world-class infrastructure that will make us competitive. Today, for instance, you ask anyone, why should a company with a huge facility, a manufacturing company, be on a generator? A generator is more expensive than gas and Ogun State is well located that we have access to gas infrastructure. If we can ensure that virtually every company operating in Ogun State has access to gas, particularly those that use heavy power, then it will bring down their production, costs and everything else will fall in place, including security costs. These are things that I plan to do. If you look back to about 40 to 50 years ago, you know, there were over 120 textile companies in Nigeria owned by Chinese and Indians. Why do you think they all disappeared? It was because the level of infrastructure that we had in Nigeria about 40 to 50 years ago was superior to the level of infrastructure that we had in India and in China. So, those Indian and Chinese companies were here. And as we were backsliding, they were upgrading their infrastructure; they closed down and moved over. So, it’s a no-brainer. If you then build your infrastructure and reverse the trend, then those companies will reappear. And that would be my vision.

 What is your assessment of the state of the Nigerian economy today?

We would have been bankrupt if not for President Bola Tinubu’s intervention. There were about four major subsidies that we were carrying and nobody wanted to talk about them. The first, which we all know about, was fuel subsidy, but we also had forex subsidy, electricity subsidy, and subsidy on all sorts of other things. They were a serious burden on us. We played politics about it, and so forth. But President Tinubu came; he had courage. It was tough when he did it, but look at the way we have now started to see ourselves. It has freed up cash flow for the sub-nationals, and things are getting better. And we’ve reached a new equilibrium. There were very serious issues at the beginning. But I had said before that we would not die if the subsidies went away. It will only help us to reassess ourselves. And then, of course, the resources will be reallocated, albeit in a very orderly and efficient manner. And then we’ll reach a new equilibrium, and then, of course, life will continue, which is what has happened. Now, there are still challenges. As you can see, we’ve started now to grow above the lacklustre rate that we were growing before the current geopolitical tensions. The economy was predicted to grow by 4.1 per cent or so this year. But the temporary challenge we’re having now is as a result of the problem in the Middle East, which, by the grace of God, is abating. I read in the morning that these guys have now signed up to a two-week ceasefire window. But that’s just to test the waters. By the time they see the benefit, two weeks may become two months, and two months may become two years. I think they want to give each other a soft landing. We’ve realised now that we need ourselves. Nobody should bully anybody. God has created Iran in a very strategic position. They may not be as powerful as the United States, but strategically, they can also make it tough for any country. In our place, there’s an adage that says that a leper may not have fingers to make milk, but he can spill it away. So, having realised that now, there’s some consensus. Since the war started, petrol prices have risen by almost 50 per cent, diesel prices grew by over 85 per cent, or close to 90 per cent and inflation has been elevated. But when these things abate, hopefully we shall go back to where we were two months ago. I think this economy is set to rise. And all of us should support efforts of the current President to build an economy that is resilient. We’ve removed the fragilities. There is forex stability. You can no longer just pick a phone and get preferential treatment as it was before. And that is the way we should go. We’ve not had it so good since our days in the Central Bank of Nigeria 12 years ago. This is the time that the central bank has been returned to where it was when we served. And I want to praise Olayemi Cardoso and his team for a job well done.

If you were to advise the federal government, what do you think they should do to achieve inclusive growth?

Simple, inclusive growth is when you ensure that while the economy is growing, the employment rate is also growing, capacity utilisation is growing and poverty rate is reducing. It’s what I said before. I believe that the poverty issue has reached a critical stage. Unconditional cash transfer should happen at the very basic level. That is because there are people who wake up today, and they don’t know where the next meal will come from. We have high IDPs in so many places. Until we deal with all those things, we’re not going anywhere. You’re talking about inclusive growth, today, look at our food beds. Look at Benue State, Southern Kaduna, Plateau, all the way to Taraba, insecurity is a challenge. We must bring back the security of life and property. And then, of course, when we do that, we deal with infrastructure. That is when we can have inclusive growth. Agriculture is very important. Don’t forget that agriculture is still the largest sector in Nigeria that should employ about 50 per cent of the population. But most of the people in Benue, now and in other places, cannot go to their farms. So these are the things that have to happen: The security of life and property must be paramount, do more work on infrastructure, and then, of course, the rest will follow.

But do you think the current administration has been able to strike the right balance between reforms and social protection?

Again, it is only this government that is now talking about State Police. For me, not having State Police up to now, I just can’t understand why it has not happened. When you go to the UK, you see counties, they have their Police, the States have theirs and the federal police are there, the FBI, and so on. Security is everybody’s business. That is exactly what I’m saying. Communities should work with the local authorities, the state authorities, and the federal government. No matter how strong your police or your Army is, they work on intelligence. If you don’t have Intel, that is important; that is good. How do you deal with security? So each time we have a security problem, we shouldn’t only look in the direction of the government, but also look at ourselves. So, I believe that the way to go it is to fast-track State Police. Let’s decentralise. And the fears expressed about State Police are unfounded. For me, there are ways by which we can address that. Let me put it this way. The judiciary is independent. Why haven’t we said that the State Judiciary should be a federal judiciary because the Chief Judges of States will do the bidding of governors, and there will be no justice? Because we have the Nigeria Judicial Commission, and so on and so forth, we have institutions that ensure that they do what they are supposed to do. The Police Service Commission should be strengthened. The appointment of State Commissioner of Police, for instance, should not be left for the Governor. There must be a process that is seen, that is believed, that is understood and respected by all stakeholders. These are things that should produce them. How can an IG sit down in Abuja and supervise the entire 774 local governments, even if he’s a machine? It is not possible. So I believe the time is here when we should have state police.

The banking sector recapitalisation exercise has just concluded. As a former central banker, do you think Nigerian banks are sufficiently resilient today to withstand external shocks?

I believe they are. But it depends on the kind of external shocks that come. We had an external shock, if you remember, the meltdown of 2006-2007, and as strong as the American banking system was, a few banks failed, and so on. But if we have exogenous shocks, not of that magnitude, I think Nigerian banks are sufficiently resilient. And then, of course, the regulators are also doing the right thing by ensuring that they have raised their capital based. They just concluded the capital raising exercise, which is very fantastic. The CBN governor went public and said they’ve been able to rake in another N4.6 trillion to boost capital. And when you look at that in real and effective terms, it’s almost like returning those banks to the strength that they were when we concluded our own capital raising exercise in 2006. That is because N25 billion then approximates the minimum capital that they have now. But one thing they have done, which is better than what we did, is that during our own time was one-size-fits-all. But today it’s not one-size-fits-all. It depends on what your activities are. Are you a regional bank? Are you a national bank? Are you an international bank? The capital was in line with that. And then, Cardoso also now extended this by saying that there must also be stress tests, that each of them must conduct stress test and it is going to happen immediately now. All of this is to ensure resilience. And then, of course, there are also macro-prudential activities that central banks should embark upon, just to strengthen them. You see, macro-prudential activities are activities that are tweaked along the flow of the economic cycle. Like, for instance, during a recession, you are supposed to then utilise some of the reserve buffers that you had before and then during the time of boom, you are encouraged to ratchet up your provision, because it’s easier for you to make profits, so that you then save for the rainy day. All of these will be prescribed through different instructions at the macro-prudential level. I believe the regulators are doing the right thing. The banks are strong and resilient.  All the banks have increased their capital base, apart from the ones that are on central bank’s programme and the central bank is on top of it and I am very glad with the outcome.

From your experience, how soon do you advise the CBN to carry out these macro-prudential activities?

Immediately. Now that they have raised capital, they should encourage the banks to stress test. Of course, there are other things they need to do like contingency planning. Contingency planning is to say in case I am short of deposit, another bank will bail me out and vice versa. All of that should be done. Once the programme is done and checked, they should conduct a stress test. Stress testing has to do with a situation where i have this level of non-performing assets, supposed the economy goes down further and there are a few problems, and there is a spike in my non-performing assets from seven per cent to 12 per cent, will I still be able to cope? So once I conduct that stress test, I know how resilient I am. If I’m not very resilient there, then I have to slow down on my credit expansion, loan expansion, and so on and so forth. Once all of that is supervised, they also look at the rate at which the economy is growing. For me, they should keep their eyes on the capital market. I suspect that bubbles might be building up in the capital market, and this happens each time you increase capital, because banks have ability to then lend. If they unleash that lending and they are impatient, they may then begin to do a lot that would make share prices go up. But I know that there have been stronger regulations around making use of proprietary funds, how you can deploy depositors’ funds, or how you cannot deploy depositors’ funds in proprietary lending, and all of this. They should keep an eye on that so we don’t build another bubble that will bust later. But I think they are quite capable. Since the central bank went into narrow banking, they’re no longer doing fiscal activities and are becoming bankers to everybody. So, having now settled down to their primary role and doing it well, I’m very glad that they can keep all of us at peace because the banks have sufficient strength to withstand the exogenous shock should it arise.

With rising geopolitical tensions, what key fiscal and economic policy should we prioritise today?

Coordination. I’ll give you an example. Rising geopolitical tension is a major problem because energy costs will go up, and raw material costs will go up. And as that is going up, you then find out that you may then have to maybe suspend some levies that you give so that it doesn’t then feed into price levels like custom levies, the four per cent levy, and so on. Perhaps this may be a time you need to suspend it; those high prices will pass through, and they will cause a spike in inflation numbers. And when that happens, you may then begin to see whether you need to raise interest rates to be able to deal with inflation. Inflation is not always a monetary phenomenon. So it may provide challenges for the regulator to deal with this kind of cost-push inflation, which is why coordination is very, very important. What are the trade policies and the tariff measures you can implement to dampen the effects while not giving too much headache to the monetary authorities? Because what they do with one hand affects the other. I think we need to raise the level of coordination now. If I were the Finance Minister, I would insist that I speak with the CBN Governor at least once a week.

How do you see this current global tension affecting our economy?

We all now know how interrelated economies are. Just this morning, I was talking to my wife because, while we are in church, we are praying about a particular country far away. Some people say, “Ah, we are not living there, why are we praying about that?” But we now know that the Iran war can affect price levels here. Because even the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 per cent of energy, does that already. And then there is a surge in price. A lot of people don’t know that some of the crude that Aliko Dangote uses are imported. Because we’ve traded our crude through forward sales and others. So what I’m saying is that anything that happens offshore affects us. The first time we had a surge, even in the price of bread and everything, was about four years ago when the Ukraine war started. A lot of people didn’t know how dependent we were on wheat. And then the cost of building material went up because Ukraine was supplying maybe 60, 70 per cent of our metal. So this clearly shows that the Nigerian economy is very sensitive to global issues and ditto every other economy. That’s the way the economy, as strong as the US economy is, is the one pleading now for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. And you see, we are not learning lessons. You remember the first time we had an oil crisis was in 1973, when we had an oil boom in 1973. That was the Yom Kippur War, which led to the Doja War. It was the Yom Kippur War when Israel was fighting Egypt, and the Suez Canal was blocked. That was when the oil price first went up, and Nigeria began to make money. That was the beginning when we once said, oil was not a problem, money was not a problem, but how to spend it. And then over time, when we had the first Gulf crisis, when we had the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the same thing happened; when we had the first Gulf crisis, the first problem with Iraq, 1990, 1991, the same thing. And then there was Kuwait, Iran and Kuwait, and then the other ones. So each time we have a serious problem, we can see the effect on the economy. It’s not new, and it will continue to happen because the global economy is so well integrated now.

 On a little lighter note, life after public service could be very demanding in different ways. How have you adjusted to this life, and what keeps you engaged today?

Before my 10 years in the Central Bank, I was a private sector person, a chartered accountant, a banker, and then I became a regulator and a public officer in the Central Bank. So, coming back, I made use of that knowledge also to build my business, to develop my business. While I was in CBN, of course, I had businesses that were being run by other people, not conflicting with my central bank role anyway, like the stockbroking firm, which has always been there. So, we developed them and expanded a few other things. And life has been very challenging. I’ve been quite busy. I only rested for one month when I left the CBN and reappeared here at my place of work and life continues. And it’s been quite interesting, really. I love what I do because I’m really busy every day of the week.

Outside of policy and economics, how do you relax and maintain a balanced lifestyle?

As I mentioned earlier, before we began this interview, I’m also a very good Christian and a pastor. So, I’m very busy on Sunday, ensuring that I preach and speak to my flock. And then, of course, I also believe in work-life balance. I relax a lot. I work hard, and I play hard. I go on holiday. I’m very close to my children. I have three grandchildren. I’m close to all of them. And then, of course, I socialise also. I love music. I love classical music. And everywhere you see good music, you’ll find me there, particularly Christian classical music. And, of course, I also exercise very well. I love sports. I play table tennis. And every day, I jog, including Sundays. So, if I go out there, we are trekking from here to Falomo; if you are not careful, you’ll be running after me.