Africa Can Shape the Future of Global Trade

Ese Stephen Owie

As Trade Ministers from around the world gather in Yaoundé, Cameroon later this week to discuss the future of the global trade system,  the future of the World Trade Organization is in balance.

But abandoning the WTO would not end trade conflicts; it would multiply them, leaving countries to navigate a maze of tariffs, retaliation, and competing standards with no common rules to hold the system together.

For Africa and the broader Global South, this moment presents a strategic choice. The instinct to defend the status quo, while grumbling about its failures, is understandable. Many developing countries fear that reform could narrow the limited policy space they currently possess. Yet resisting change risks leaving others to shape the system without them.

A more effective strategy is to engage the reform agenda proactively and help shape the rules that will govern the next phase of global trade. In diplomacy as in strategy, the best defence is often an offence.

The multilateral trading system did not emerge by accident. It was constructed through decades of negotiation, from Bretton Woods in 1944 to the Marrakesh Agreement in 1994, to constrain economic power through rules and to turn rivalry into predictability. Yet many of these rules were designed in a very different political world, before the wave of decolonization reshaped global economic participation. Much of today’s membership joined a system whose foundations had already been laid without them.

Without a common rulebook, trade governance splinters into rival standards, subsidy races, and retaliatory measures. This increases uncertainty and undermines investment and growth. The WTO remains one of the few institutions capable of keeping trade relations predictable even when political trust is thin.

At its best, the WTO functions less like a global referee and more like the operating system of world trade. It provides a shared framework of rules and information that allows countries to understand each other’s policies. Through transparency and regular reporting, governments can see what others are doing and raise concerns before tensions escalate into conflict.

This coordinating role is becoming even more important as climate policy reshapes the global economy. Governments are increasingly using trade tools such as carbon border measures, green standards, and clean energy subsidies to pursue climate goals. Without coordination, these policies risk sliding into green protectionism that fragments markets and slows climate progress.

Trade governance is also being transformed by technology. Data flows, digital platforms, and artificial intelligence now shape competitiveness and supply chains. Tariffs, export controls, and subsidies are increasingly deployed to secure technological advantage. Without international coordination, these measures could harden into competing blocs that divide the global economy.

But the future legitimacy of the WTO will depend on whether countries see its rules as fair. Trade agreements already include provisions designed to help developing countries adapt to new rules and build the capacity to compete. These provisions must work in practice so poorer countries can adopt new technologies, meet sustainability standards, and participate fully in global markets.

When climate standards or new trade rules are developed without the meaningful participation of developing countries, they risk becoming barriers rather than bridges to global commerce. Reform must therefore focus not only on new rules, but also on ensuring that all countries have the tools to implement them.

Encouragingly, reform discussions are gaining momentum. A structured process led by the Norwegian Ambassador to the WTO is examining governance, fairness, and emerging issues such as climate policy and digital trade. This work is unfolding under the steady leadership of WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, whose focus on practical results has helped stabilize the institution at a difficult moment.

For African governments in particular, the most promising entry point is the governance pillar of WTO reform. In Maputo, African trade ministers identified priorities including dispute settlement reform, agriculture, digital trade, and fair development rules. How decisions are made, how negotiations are structured, and how transparency and participation are organized will ultimately determine whether the trading system reflects the realities of today’s membership. Indeed, if governance reforms are designed well, they can unlock progress across other areas that have been put forward as key priorities for Africa.

MC14 will not resolve every tension in global trade. But it can signal whether governments are prepared to update the system together or allow it to erode through neglect.

The WTO is not a relic of the past. It remains the most credible forum the world has for managing competition, coordinating climate action, and preventing trade disputes from spiraling into economic conflict.

In an increasingly fragmented world, that role may matter more than ever. If Africa and the Global South engage the reform debate with confidence and clarity, the next chapter of global trade governance will not simply happen to them; it will be written with them.

•Dr. Ese Stephen Owie serves as Senior Advisor of the Remaking Trade for a Sustainable Future Project, CEO of the University of Oxford Climate Alumni Network (OxCAN), and Associate Professor of Public International Law and Policy at EUCLID (Pôle Universitaire EUCLIDE/Euclid University