Experts: Nigeria Air Travel Growth Stagnant in the Last Ten Years

Chinedu Eze

Despite having the highest indigenous travelers in Africa, Nigeria has one of the poorest growth records in air travel both on international and domestic routes in the last 10 years, aviation experts and stakeholders have said.

According to estimates, about 99 per cent of people who travel from Nigeria to international destinations are Nigerians, unlike in many countries in Africa, where tourists and other expatriates constitute major air travel publics.

Investigations revealed that on the domestic route, after improved growth, from 2016, which peaked in 2019 before the COVID-19 interregnum has continued to hover around 12 million, while the international passenger movement has stayed around 4 million.

Compared to countries close to Nigeria in terms of economy in Africa, like Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, passenger growth has remained stagnant over the years.

Nigeria recorded improved growth of 6.3 per cent in 2016 with total 15, 232, 597 passenger traffic, but this declined by 8.039 per cent in 2017 with passenger traffic of over 13 million.  It later increased to 17, 320, 438 in 2018, and peaked before COVID-19 to reach 18.1 million in 2019, which was an increase of 23.19 per cent.

This was made of domestic passenger traffic of 12, 791, 639 and international passenger movement of 4, 438, 799.

In 2024 passenger traffic declined by 6.46 per cent to a little over 12.54 million domestic passenger traffic, while and international passenger traffic was 4.37 million, driven by high demand and migration, which brings to a total of 15.7 million, down from 15.9 million in 2023. The figures indicate fluctuating growth and decline, which reflects the undulating nature of air travel in Nigeria, propelled by intemperate economic growth, foreign exchange and the value of the local currency.

Egypt’s air travel passenger growth between 2016 and 2025 experienced significant recovery post-pandemic, culminating in a record-breaking in 2025, where 

Cairo International Airport alone handled over 30 million passengers and nationwide tourist arrivals reached 19 million, a 21 per cent increase from 2024.

Between 2016 and 2025, Kenya’s air travel sector experienced significant growth, marked by a 34 per cent increase in African connectivity since 2014. By 2025, Kenya, as a key regional hub, experienced a surge in international arrivals, contributing to a projected six per cent growth in African passenger traffic in 2026, surpassing global averages.

South Africa’s air passenger market has recorded increased growth in the last 10 years. In 2025, O R Tambo International Airport recorded 18.37 million passengers, up from 17.4 million in 2024. In 2025, Cape Town International Airport recorded 11.1 million passengers, so the two airports alone processed almost 20 million passengers in 2025.

Experts that spoke to THISDAY pointed out why Nigeria air passenger growth remained sporadic.

Speaking, former Rector, Nigerian College of Aviation and Technology (NCAT), Zaria, Captain Sam Caulcrick, said disposable income could. He said the increase in the number of private jets and charter service, which have become a choice for premium passengers who now shun commercial air travel is also a factor.

“Beyond the low disposable incomes, I will add that the increasing presence of private jets—rising from 44 in 2005 to over 157 by 2024—is creating a ‘dual-speed’ market, where the affluent bypass commercial airlines, thus depriving scheduled operators of ‘premium revenue,” Caulcrick said.  

He noted that traditionally, commercial airlines make most of their profits from the premium cabins and could even subsidise coach class, “but commercial flights are currently boycotted by the rich riding on private jets.”

“Ironically, those who fly private jets also avoid paying the ticket sales charge (five per cent Ticket Service Charge), as most of these flights are illegal, which is adding to the unaffordable ticket prices on commercial flights for the middle class. High airfares (due to operational costs and in addition the ticket sales charges) have made flying unaffordable for the middle class, forcing many to choose safer road travel or stay at home.

“The rise in private jet ownership, often seen as an elite “lifestyle” choice rather than a necessity, directly takes revenue from the premium cabins of commercial airlines. Many of these private jets are used for illegal commercial charter services, bypassing regulatory oversight and directly competing with registered commercial airlines for high-net-worth clients. While general aviation thrives at the high end, the sector’s total contribution to Nigeria’s GDP remains below one per cent highlighting a disconnect between luxury travel and the broader, struggling commercial aviation industry,” Caulcrick further said.

He explained that commercial airlines are fighting to survive, with many experiencing severe financial pressure due to high fuel costs, foreign exchange shortages, and the diversion of passengers, which results in reliance on high fares that further dampen demand.

On his part, Managing Director of Flights and Logistics Solutions Limited, Amos Akpan, said domestic airlines have not embarked on route development to maximum passenger throughput.

“For example, there could be Kano-Port Harcourt flights; Enugu-Kano flights; Eket-Warri flights and others. No new route has been developed. Each of the existing developed routes have reached its peak in terms of market potential. Already developed route is where every existing operator and startup airline deploy their aircraft, and aircraft are acquired with the already developed routes as utilisation target,” Akpan said.

He identified developed domestic routes as, Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Port Harcourt, Enugu, Owerri, Uyo, Asaba, Benin, Kaduna, Jos, Yola, and Maiduguri.

Also, Executive Secretary, Aviation Round Table (ART), Olu Fidel Ohunayo, attributed the slow passenger growth in air transport in Nigeria to unfavourable economic policies and insecurity.

“Security is a major factor in determining travel because people want to be safe. And when you have advice from different countries to the citizens showing that you cannot go to some places in Nigeria and those places you can even go to, you are not supposed to go out at night or go out alone. It tends to diminish travel. And once security issues are high, also will be insurance,” Ohunayo said. 

The experts agreed that Nigeria needed to grow its tourism industry, but insisted that until the country develops transit airport facility to enable Nigerian carriers bring in passengers from neighbouring countries, transit them seamlessly through nation’s airports to further destinations, passenger growth would continue to oscillate as it has been for years.