Israeli-US, Iran War and the Global Implications
The world has experienced unease and palpable tension in the past few weeks, with the escalation of the crisis between, Israel, USA, and Iran. The strike on the compound of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by America and Israel which resulted in the death of the 86 year old Ayatollah, has inevitably put the world on edge. Apart from missile attacks on Israel in retaliation, Iran has bombed other countries in the Middle East said have ties with US, such as military bases. There are heightened fears as to whether this could escalate to World War III, particularly if China, Russia and other world powers contemplate taking sides. With the vast oil resources of the Gulf Region, and Iran supplying 20% of the world’s crude oil, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, implications of the crises are resonating globally, and Nigeria is not excluded. Oil prices have since escalated, noticeably. It is a mixture of sadness and joy for Nigeria because, while the Government could record gains by the increase in crude oil prices, particularly if it succeeds in ramping up production, the accompanying increase in fuel prices is sad news for Nigerians because of its inflationary impact. Jonathan Gunu Taidi, SAN; Felix Eghie Patrick Sugaba and Dr Akpor Mudiaga Odje, examine the global implications of the war, and its possible effects on Nigeria
Middle East Conflict, Global Oil Shock, and Nigeria’s Familiar Energy Vulnerability
Jonathan Gunu Taidi, SAN
Background
The latest military confrontation between US/Israel and Iran, has once again reminded the world of a long-standing geopolitical reality: instability in the Middle East rarely remains a regional affair. Within hours of the escalation, global oil markets reacted sharply, sending crude prices upward and triggering ripple effects across energy-dependent economies worldwide.
For Nigeria, the consequences were almost immediate. Within forty-eight hours of the escalation, domestic fuel prices surged across major cities, transport costs began climbing, and businesses already struggling with high operating expenses, faced yet another wave of economic pressure.
The development illustrates a recurring paradox, in Nigeria’s economic structure. While the country remains one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, its heavy reliance on imported refined petroleum products, means that global oil shocks often hurt Nigerian consumers faster than they benefit the national treasury.
The Global Energy Shock
The Middle East remains the epicentre of global oil supply. A significant percentage of the world’s crude oil exports move through strategic maritime corridors in the region, most notably the Strait of Hormuz. Whenever tensions rise around this corridor, global energy markets react swiftly due to fears of supply disruptions.
The US/Israel vs Iran confrontation has therefore, triggered a predictable surge in crude oil prices. Energy traders, anticipating potential disruptions to shipping routes and oil infrastructure, quickly priced geopolitical risk into the market.
For energy-importing nations, this translates directly into higher fuel costs. For developing economies such as Nigeria, the impact can be particularly severe, because energy costs influence virtually every sector of the economy.
Transportation, food supply chains, electricity generation, and manufacturing all depend heavily on petroleum products. When fuel prices rise sharply, inflationary pressures inevitably follow.
Nigeria’s Immediate Economic Impact
The most visible impact in Nigeria, has been the rapid increase in pump prices. Filling stations adjusted their prices almost overnight, as international market signals filtered through the downstream petroleum sector.
Transport fares began rising across cities and inter-State routes, affecting millions of Nigerians who depend on public transportation. Small businesses relying on petrol-powered generators also faced increased operating costs, a reality that further strains already fragile enterprises.
The situation is particularly concerning, because Nigeria’s economic environment is still grappling with the aftermath of fuel subsidy removal and currency volatility. A sudden external shock from international oil markets, compounds these domestic challenges.
In effect, global geopolitics has once again entered the daily economic life of the average Nigerian.
The Oil Revenue Paradox
Interestingly, the same crisis creating hardship for Nigerian consumers, could also produce short-term fiscal gains for the Nigerian Government.
Higher global crude oil prices typically translate into, increased export revenues for oil-producing countries. In theory, Nigeria could benefit from stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved Government earnings, if oil prices remain elevated.
However, structural constraints limit the extent of this advantage. Nigeria’s crude oil production has struggled to meet its output quota in recent years, due to pipeline vandalism, underinvestment, and operational inefficiencies. Consequently, even when global prices rise significantly, Nigeria often lacks the production capacity required to fully maximise the windfall.
This reality reinforces the persistent contradiction within the Nigerian energy sector: the country produces crude oil, yet, imports most of the refined fuel it consumes.
Nigerians Caught in the Crossfire
Beyond economic consequences, the conflict has also created humanitarian concerns. Several Nigerians working or residing within parts of the Arab Peninsula, have reportedly been stranded due to heightened security tensions and disruptions to international travel. Flight cancellations, airspace restrictions, and security alerts have complicated movement across parts of the region. For many Nigerians in diaspora communities, geopolitical tensions that appear distant from home can quickly become immediate personal risks.
The Nigerian Government’s response will therefore, require careful diplomatic coordination to ensure the safety and possible evacuation of affected citizens, should the conflict escalate further.
Lessons for Nigeria’s Energy Strategy
If there is a strategic takeaway from the current crisis, it is the urgent need for Nigeria to accelerate reforms within its energy sector.
First, domestic refining capacity must be strengthened. The country’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products exposes the economy to international volatility.
Second, Nigeria must position herself more effectively within global energy markets, by stabilising crude production and improving investment conditions in the oil and gas sector.
Third, long-term economic diversification remains essential. An economy heavily dependent on petroleum revenues, remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks originating thousands of kilometres away. Energy security is no longer merely a technical policy issue, it is a national economic survival strategy.
A Familiar Wake-Up Call
The US/Israel and Iran conflict may eventually de-escalate, as many geopolitical crises often do. Oil markets may stabilise, and global attention may shift elsewhere. Yet, for Nigeria, the lessons should not be temporary.
Every new crisis in the Middle East, tends to expose the same structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s energy architecture. Rising oil prices bring temporary fiscal optimism, but immediate domestic hardship.
Until Nigeria builds a more resilient and self-sufficient energy system, external conflicts will continue to shape the economic realities within its borders. In that sense, the current crisis is not merely an international story. It is also a reminder that national economic stability increasingly depends on how effectively countries prepare for shocks beyond their control.
Jonathan Gunu Taidi, SAN, Bencher; Former General Secretary, NBA
Netanyahu-Trump War On Iran
Felix Eghie Patrick Sugaba
“This war allows us to do what I have yearned to do for 40 years: smite the terror regime hip and thigh. This is what I promised, and this is what we shall do”. Prime Minister Netanyahu (March 2026)
The heading of this article is deliberately constructed to reflect the “yearnings” of the Israeli Prime Minister, as he readily admitted. Unarguably, it is a war that was cleverly crafted by Netanyahu, hoisted and gleefully executed frontally by a President that is allegedly plagued by a mental disorder known as “Malignant Narcissist“.
Let’s get it straight. Iran is not, and has never been a threat to the US. Iran had never been in possession of any missile, that was capable of travelling the distance and hitting any part of America. As for the Nuclear brouhaha, the world was informed in June last year that the Iranian nuclear plant had been obliterated and the problem laid to rest, courtesy of the onslaught by US B2 bombers. Having hoodwinked and deluded us last year, President Trump is telling us to stomach another round of bombardment that is predicated on the same reasons. Not surprising, the US cannot wrap its hands around the motivation for the war it embarked upon. President Trump has given us as many reasons as his many tongues could effortlessly obfuscate, and as many as there are presidential advisers and cohorts. Almost all the initial reasons that were dangled before the world, have metamorphosed into opaque and embellished narratives that are astonishing to say the least.
There is no spin that is massive enough, to blind everyone to reality. This war, is the manifestation of a long-term desire of the Israeli Prime Minister. His political career, is built around the transformation that is currently unfolding in the Middle East. The objective is simple: Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. Once Iran crumbles, every opposition to Israeli aspiration regarding Palestine crumbles with it. Hamas would be gone. Hezbollah would be gone. The talk of a two state solution would be gone. This is the play book of Netanyahu, to which Trump strongly agrees.
It was easy to conceptualise this war. What the US and Israel probably did not factor into their plans and execution, was the mountain of debris that would rain on the world. To begin with, it is now obvious to any discerning mind that we are in for a prolonged war. This is not the first time, that the US would be involved in bogus adventures. It lost the Vietnam war, not because the strength of its military force depreciated. It lost it because the moral justification was too flimsy and hollow, to drive the will to continue. Iraq was a quagmire. The US invaded Iraq over conjured excuses, that became its albatross. It paid dearly in terms of human casualties. Even in Afghanistan where there was a modicum of justification, the US could not properly define and set its mission on a proper trajectory.
Any war that has no proper moral underpinnings, risks disaster. In The Art of War written by Sun Tzu, the author opined that wars must be grounded in “legitimate moral authority”. According to him, “War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death, the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied”. He warned that a “war without a clear moral and strategic justification, risks dragging the State into a long conflict that could ultimately destroy the State itself”.
Donald Trump`s war on Iran can be said to be a war that is launched out of vain reasons: pride, shared personality cult, military muscle flexing, etc. It is a gamble that has inflicted enormous consequences, on the entire world. What Israel and the US probably did not reckon with, or undermined was the capability and the strategic nature of the nation of Iran. Again, in the Art of War, Sun Tzu warns about underestimating an enemy; never assume the enemy is incapable; respect the enemy’s potential; don’t be overconfident; know yourself, and know the enemy. In the case of Iran, it is obvious that Trump and Netanyahu were not schooled in Sun Tzu`s rules of war.
We are probably faced with a long conflict, and the consequences are mounting by the day. After two weeks of relentless bombings by the US and Israel, the world is waking up to the fact that these two countries have embarked on a dream chase. The reasons behind the war have become an illusion, a mirage that is elusive to the eye. Iran’s response, did not come as a surprise to observers. Aware of its strategic geographical position in the world, Iran has gone ahead to cut its pound of flesh.
Oil prices have gone beyond the $100 mark. Prices of goods and commodities, are soaring all over the world. The shipping industry is reeling from the crises in the strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane that is now virtually under the control of Iran. The aviation sector is disrupted, and airlines are piling up huge debts. Tourism, which is a major sector in the Middle East, has gone on recess for now.
There is a dimension which seems absent, in the current space of discussion over this war. That is, the role of the International community and the United Nations. We were here before. We are back to the very reason, the League of Nations failed. The UN has become toothless and irrelevant. The US which was not a signatory to the League of Nations, seems hell bent to destroy the institution. As we count, Nicaragua, Panama, Iraq, Libya, Iran, the question is, who is next? This is the reality of our world in which, might is right. If Trump decides to invade Greenland or Colombia, he would do so without a blink from any nation. Trump knows it, we all know it. What we may not know is how bleak the future is, because Trump is not alone in a world that is drenched with nuclear arsenal. Perhaps, it is time for the European Union, China and Russia to re-examine their foreign policies, and fine tune their security architecture. There is a need to checkmate this bully master of the world, before it plunges the world into WW3.
Amid these crises, there seems to be a silver lining for some countries. Confronted with declining oil distribution and consequent rise in prices, the US has announced the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Russia desperately needs the money, to firm its economy and prosecute the war in Ukraine. Nigeria must equally, take advantage of the situation. This period is reminiscent of the Gulf windfall. But, unlike that windfall that was irredeemably squandered, the country must take advantage of this period, set its agenda right and embark on developmental projects that are meaningful and verifiable. We hope the countries involved, will find adequate reasons to bring an end to the war as soon as practicable. Meanwhile, we urge the Government to do whatever it can, to cushion the impact of the war on the citizens as much as possible.
Felix Eghie Patrick Sugaba Zurich, Switzerland
Israeli and American Attacks On Iran: Global Implications and Path of International Law
Dr Akpo Mudiaga Odje
In the Beginning
Indeed, in the beginning was the issue of the proposed uranium emporium and aspirations by Iran, which is a country Israel had long in ages perceived as an existential threat.
Israel perceived especially post- 1979, that the Iranian Islamic leadership has so much regard and reverence for their their fundamental Shia Islamic beliefs.
And one of such, is to eliminate and evaporate the country of Israel from the face of the earth.
These Iranians who are known in biblical records as Persia, have never hidden their quest to expropriate Israel and all it represents.
Now the big brother America, obviously an ally of Israel for obvious reasons, together with her unflinching proclivity to be pivotal in world affairs, chose Israel for this partnership of war, notwithstanding the ironic fact that the same US had in the 1940’s also partnered Iran in that region’s political concatenation and for regional strategic stability.
Strikes Against Iran and Assassination of the Iranian Islamic Ruler
Surprise, surprise, was what welcomed the world some weeks ago, as the dualistic union from the Israeli and American Forces sent the Iranian spiritual leader into the extra-terrestrial. They both also contemporaneously, struck Iran in combative dual modes and modules.
Impact and Responses by Iran on the Attacks by the Israeli and American Forces
Indeed, the scientific cliche states that, in every reaction, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Iran was pummelled, and has been consistently hammered. And, so, Iran therefore, had to respond by striking other Arab nations perceived to be American and Western puppets, who have also warehoused military bases in their nations in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and more – they all became targets of the Iranians.
It is instructive to also remember that, the Iranians who are actually called Persians, view themselves as the purest breed of the Arabs, and as such, their distinctive blue eyes, they allege, makes them of more superior quality together with their Shia practice of Islam.
The Impact of this War on the Oil and Gas Sector of Nigeria
Indeed, this subhead should proceed with the budget benchmark for a barrel of our Bonny light crude oil in 2026. We note that it was based on approximately 65 USD. As the war started and as at now, the barrel of the crude on the international market is about 80 USD.
Whilst Nigeria will enjoy a boom from this increase, its joy will be short-lived, as the same cannot be said about obtaining and maintaining a conservative fuel price in Nigeria. It is simply bad news for Nigerians on fuel and diesel, including energy and gas.
As we write these presents, a litre of fuel is staunchly selling at N1,300 per litre, whilst diesel is N1,62O per litre.
The implications of the war on the oil and gas sector of Nigeria cannot therefore, be overemphasised.
As expected, this soaring prices for fuel and diesel have gazumped the general market as price of food stuffs, transportation and all services are fast skyrocketing.
Nigeria is hit indeed, considering the fact that our NNPCL is now purchasing imported crude as feedstock for Dangote refinery, to keep prices of refined products within the reach of the common man.
The Central Bank of Nigeria also injected 500 million USD into the economy to cushion forex demands, and the pressure same may cause the still dwindling Naira and our economic policies.
Nigeria is also bleeding as the war has unwittingly shifted the world’s focus and attention on the unfortunate attacks on our military bases in the North, to the middle east war, thus, robbing Nigeria of the sympathy, empathy and aids expected from developed Nations. Inclusive of this, is the fear of job losses and salary cuts.
Indeed, once the oil and gas sectors are unstable and denied inflow because of the middle east war, there will a corresponding cut in jobs, salaries and the hitherto quality of life of the workers and even the middle class. So, our leadership must now put forward policies that will ease our pains as it were, during the ongoing war. These may include, incentives for small businesses and farmers. Target food boosting enterprises, and encouraging unskilled and skilled labour for self sufficiency
Some Nigerians Still Stranded in Iran
Reports abound of several Nigerians stranded in Iran, in the course of the renewed middle east war.
However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has told us publicly that they are making serious moves, to bring back these unfortunately stranded Nigerians. They are presently working with Armenia, a country sharing boundaries with Iran, as some Nigerians are now exiting through that channel already, even though dangerously so.
Whilst we commend the President on this one, we are equally quick to lament the inordinate delay by our Government, in taking steps to evacuate our said citizens.
Iran playing It’s Role of Economic Importance to the World, by Restricting Access through and from the Straits of Hormuz, Which Facilitates Over 20% of the World’s Oil
That strait is responsible for exporting 20% of the world’s oil and gas into the world. By restricting access therefrom, Iran is stamping its feet down to influence oil prices that will harm both Israel and the USA, and also on non combatant countries in the war.
Economic Relevance of Iran to the World at this Time of War
As one of the largest producers and exporters of oil, Iran naturally sits amongst the world’s economic powers. And, as such, once the said Strait of Hormuz is restricted or shut down by the Iranians, the world will continue to sneeze repeatedly.
War No Longer Won Solely on Firepower Alone, but, Now, Also With the Strength of Economic Power
This is why Iran is potentially dangerous, till now.
It is technically responsible for allowing the exportation of about 2O% of the crude oil into the world, through the Strait of Hormuz.
A fortiori, once it says no way, and blocks the said Strait as it has now done, the world will quiver as it is presently doing today.
International Energy Agency Orders 400 million Barrels of Crude from Reserves of 32 Countries as a Result of Iran’s Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
According to the Executive Director IEA, Mr Faith Birol, the decision was reached amongst its 32 members, unanimously to launch the “largest ever release of emergency oil stocks in the history of the agency”.
Meantime, Iran has vowed never to open the Strait of Hormuz, for oil to reach either the US or Israel.
This is the force of economic power, as well as relevance. And, the severe impact of its application during war times.
United Nations Condemns the Attacks on Iran.
The United Nations had since condemned the attacks on Iran, and also Iranian reprisals on Arab countries, as an affront on the sovereignty of nations under its charter.
We recall that in 1945, the now strikers of US, China, Russia, France and great Britain, all agreed to follow peaceful means to settle grievances, rather than war. Alas, that is now observed more in the breach, than observance. And, this has made radical scholars in international law to posit that :
“Might is Always Right in International Law”.
Conclusion
As adumbrated above, the middle east war between the Israeli, US and Iran may snowball beyond their collective ambitions and goals to further hurt the entire world, if not immediately truncated. And, it is usually the innocuous citizens of these triumvirate of fighters that will sadly, bear the heavy negative impact of this war. And, which will also sadly include innocent citizens of countries that are bystanders like Nigeria.
No doubt:
“we are therefore, all in this together “.
In this connection, Let all therefore, take heed in the very apposite observation of former President Bill Clinton of the US that:
“The Most Expensive Peace, is Still Better than the Cheapest War “.
Dr Mudiaga Odje LLD, LLM (Merit) (London), BL; Member, British Council; Constitutional Lawyer
