The Federal Republic of APC

Is the All Progressives Congress (APC) the new MTN? Everywhere you go, it is APC. This would have been funny if not that we are discussing the state of party politics in Nigeria, where 31 out of 36 governors are now fully nestled in the ruling party. Although Senator Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi state, is still in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), it may be a matter of time for him to join the APC train if he is able to resolve his differences with his bitter rivals in the state chapter of the party. As things stand, all northern states, minus Bauchi, are governed by the APC. In the south, the PDP controls only Oyo, while the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) are in charge of Abia and Anambra respectively. The Accord Party governs Osun. The rest is under the APC.

I have a hunch of where the sympathies of Governor Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra and Alex Otti of Abia lie — which may not make good reading for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the “opposition coalition party” as we call it. If not that Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun has some diehard enemies in the state chapter of the APC, he too would probably have been in the party today instead of the Accord that he chose. Effectively, almost every state of the federation will be under the control of — or aligned to — the ruling party by the time we hold the 2027 general election. You cannot blame the APC for becoming so big. Politics is, after all, a game of numbers. As the Yoruba would say, you cannot be angry that your blessings are multiplying. The APC is really having a ball.

I have a fair idea of why PDP governors are trooping to the APC. They are not defecting for the same reason, but the judicial decimation of the PDP is a major factor. I do not know if we recollect that in 2019, Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu Idris of the APC won the governorship election in Zamfara state, defeating PDP’s Alhaji Bello Matawalle by a score of 534,541 to 189,452. Senator Kabir Marafa’s faction in the APC approached the courts to argue that Idris was not properly nominated. The Supreme Court then declared all primaries conducted by Idris’ faction null and void and cancelled the results of all APC candidates in the state, from the house of assembly to the national assembly. That was how all PDP candidates were declared winners, and Matawalle became the state governor.

Today, with the help of Chief Nyesom Wike, the PDP has been extensively cannibalised and it is becoming glaring to most governors who the courts will eventually support. What any governor does not want is to be nominated as PDP’s flag bearer and go on to win the election only to get the Zamfara treatment. It is already happening. In many states, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has refused to recognise the nominees of some parties, including the PDP. On Monday, the appeal court in Abuja stopped INEC from recognising the Kabiru Turaki faction of the PDP. On Thursday, the appeal court in Akure recognised the PDP governorship candidate in Ekiti based on the primary conducted by the same Turaki faction. What else is the meaning of confusion?

But if incumbent governors who want to seek re-election — such as Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara — are flocking to the APC, what about those who have no other term to seek — like Governor Adamu Fintiri of Adamawa? At least, they have nothing to lose. Well, that would be a naïve reading. Every governor wants to install a successor, so the Zamfara treatment can still apply. Also, not many governors want to sleep in “German cell” after leaving office in 2027. Therefore, many governors and their associates are flocking to the APC not because they love the ruling party so much or believe that the party is better than theirs. It is simply a flight to safety. The way we play politics in Nigeria, especially in the last few years, it is much safer to be on the good side of the incumbency.

Meanwhile, having 31 governors does not automatically translate to winning 31 states in the presidential or governorship election. That is not how it works. We have seen states vote differently in local and national elections at the same time. We have seen states where sitting governors lose their own elections or fail to deliver to their parties in the presidential poll. It is said that all politics is local. That is the why I am not really worried about the one-party state fears. It will never work in Nigeria. After all, the PDP once controlled about 30 states. Nigeria is too diverse to be compressed into a single party. As Waziri Adio once argued, what we have is a dominant party system not a one-party state. In that case, we should expect some recalibrations during and after the 2027 elections.

As I have said, I cannot begrudge the APC for enlarging its coast. This is politics, isn’t it? In the end, I blame the politicians who do not have the stomach for the long haul. Many cannot lift a finger to fight for what they believe in. They are not ready to be in the political wilderness for one minute. They always want the easy way out. When President Bola Tinubu was in the opposition, he was ready to face the federal fire. He indeed faced the federal fire. He was the only survivor when the PDP swept the south-west in 2003. He gathered the remnants, rebuilt his machinery, and held on through thick and thin until the APC was born in 2013. It is ironic that the same APC is now cornering the political space. It is tragic that there seems to be no new Tinubu on the other side. It is what it is.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

WAR WITHOUT END

US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran has predictably thrown the global economy into turmoil. Nigerians are being badly affected at a time we are still struggling to get ourselves together. The disruption in the oil market has impacted everybody, with high fuel costs hitting motorists. Nigeria cannot even enjoy much benefit from high oil prices because our production has fallen. The saddest thing is that it is not a war the US and Israel can win. Long after the bombing has gone quiet, the consequences usually shimmer and linger. Fifteen years after NATO pummelled Libya to pieces, Malians, Nigerians, Nigeriens and Burkinabés are still suffering from the terrorism aftermath. Sad.

NOT BOWLED OVER

Mr Daniel Bwala’s encounter with Mr Mehdi Hassan on Al Jazeera’s Head to Head interview has been dominating political discourse. The special adviser to President Bola Tinubu on policy communication did not have a great outing as he could not provide convincing answers to the hard questions on insecurity. That Bwala has spent time trying to deodorise his outing is an indication that he knew it was a disaster. I have read many post-mortem analyses. Let me now add my own: he was talking as a politician and lawyer, whereas it was a communication job he needed to do. Denying the obvious is the job of politicians, but providing context and nuances is what a communicator does. Authenticity.

ROCK N’ TOLL

If you want to understand why Nigeria is like this, you don’t need to go too far — just take a look at the quality of policy making. How do you just impose a new toll payment system at the airports without trialling it, doing a dry run or providing a fail-safe option? The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) — by far the worst airport managers of all the countries I have visited — simply threw a spanner in the wheel and created chaos for travellers. It took a presidential order for them to come back to their senses. Our policymakers hardly think about the pain they inflict on Nigerians with their ill thought-out policies — as if we are animals. Is this the best this country has to offer? Disastrous.

NO COMMENT

Section 182(3) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) clearly states: “A person who was sworn in as governor to complete the term for which another person was elected as governor shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.” In 2023, Chief Lucky Aiyedatiwa was sworn in to complete the tenure of the late Rotimi Akeredolu and was elected for his own term in 2025. Some people still went court seeking interpretation. Maybe judges should start jailing people for wasting precious their time (jokes). The court ruled that he cannot run again, but Aiyedatiwa said he would consult with his lawyers on his next move. Just when you thought you had seen it all. Hahahaha…