Nigeria: Climate Commitments and the Gas Paradox  

SOStainabilityWeekly

Edited by Oke Epia, E-mail: sostainability01@gmail.com  | WhatsApp: +234 8034000706

Washing and Hushing

Nigeria’s climate ambitions have become more visible in recent years. The country has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, submitted updated climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, and launched an Energy Transition Plan that promises to gradually decarbonize the economy. Yet, at the same time, Nigeria continues to burn billions of cubic meters of natural gas into the atmosphere every year.

This paradox lies at the centre of Nigeria’s energy debate. Gas flaring is one of the most persistent environmental problems in the Niger Delta, and it remains widespread even as the country positions itself as a climate-responsible state. The unavoidable question, therefore, is: does Nigeria’s continued gas flaring not counteract its net-zero ambitions? 

Nigeria’s Net-Zero Promise and Climate Commitments

Nigeria’s climate commitments are primarily expressed through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement. In its updated NDC, the country pledged to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 20 percent unconditionally and up to 47 percent conditionally by 2030 relative to business-as-usual projections. A significant portion of these reductions is expected to come from the energy sector, particularly through the reduction of methane emissions and the elimination of routine gas flaring. The government reinforced these commitments in 2021 with the launch of the Energy Transition Plan, which outlines a pathway to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. In this plan, natural gas is framed as a “transition fuel” that will support economic development while Nigeria gradually shifts toward cleaner energy sources. At first glance, the strategy appears coherent: reduce flaring, use natural gas more efficiently, and gradually transition to renewables. Yet the reality on the ground suggests a much more complicated story.

The Persistent Contradiction of Gas Flaring

Despite decades of regulatory efforts, Nigeria remains one of the world’s largest gas-flaring countries. Satellite monitoring by the World Bank shows that Nigeria still ranks among the top global flaring nations. The scale of the problem is significant. In 2019, Nigeria flared about 7.83 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, placing it among the highest-flaring countries in the world. More recently, Nigeria flared 5.83 bcm of gas in 2023, representing energy worth nearly $1.89 billion that was simply burned into the atmosphere instead of being captured or utilised. Rather than declining steadily, the trend has shown troubling reversals. The World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Tracker reported that Nigeria experienced a 12 percent increase in flaring in 2024, the second-largest increase globally.

What makes this increase particularly concerning is that oil production rose only modestly during the same period. In other words, Nigeria’s flaring intensity—the amount of gas burned per barrel of oil produced actually worsened, reaching levels more than double the global average. This persistence raises serious questions about whether policy commitments are translating into measurable progress.

Deadlines That Keep Moving

One of the most striking aspects of Nigeria’s gas-flaring problem is how long the country has been trying and failing to eliminate it. The first major legal attempt to end routine flaring came with the Associated Gas Reinjection Act of 1979, which required oil companies to develop plans for gas utilization. The law set January 1, 1984 as the deadline after which routine gas flaring would be prohibited unless explicitly authorized by the government. The deadline passed without enforcement. Over the following decades, Nigeria repeatedly announced new flare-out targets. Governments declared new deadlines in 2004, 2007, 2008, 2010, and later 2020, each time promising that gas flaring would soon become a relic of the past. Each time the deadline approached, it was postponed. This pattern of shifting deadlines gradually undermined the credibility of the policy itself. Instead of serving as binding regulatory milestones, flare-out dates became flexible targets that could be renegotiated whenever industry constraints emerged. Today, Nigeria’s most prominent commitment is tied to the global Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative, supported by the World Bank and several oil-producing countries. Whether this deadline will finally be enforced remains one of the most important tests of Nigeria’s climate credibility.

The Petroleum Industry Act and the “Gas-Centric Transition”

The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 introduced sweeping reforms to Nigeria’s oil and gas governance structure. It created new regulatory institutions, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and aimed to attract investment into the sector, but the PIA also reflects Nigeria’s strategic decision to expand gas development. Under what the government calls the “Decade of Gas”, Nigeria intends to increase natural-gas production, expand liquefied natural gas exports, and build new domestic gas infrastructure. Gas is positioned not only as an economic driver but also as a transitional fuel that will help Nigeria reduce reliance on diesel and biomass. To address gas flaring specifically, the government launched the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialization Programme (NGFCP), which allocates flare sites to private investors who can capture and convert the gas into electricity, cooking fuel, or industrial feedstock. Projects under the programme are expected to capture 250–300 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, potentially generating about 3 gigawatts of electricity while reducing carbon emissions. This framework appears aligned with climate objectives. However, the effectiveness of such programmes ultimately depends on regulatory enforcement and investment in gas-capture infrastructure.

Enforcement Gaps and Structural Incentives to Flare

One of the most persistent problems in Nigeria’s gas-flaring policy is enforcement. For many years, the penalties imposed on companies that flare gas were extremely low compared with the commercial value of the gas being burned. In practice, paying the fine was often cheaper than investing in the infrastructure required to capture and transport associated gas. Even when penalties were increased, enforcement remained inconsistent. Oil companies could obtain ministerial permits allowing them to continue flaring under certain conditions. This created a regulatory paradox in which gas flaring was technically prohibited yet frequently authorised. Infrastructure constraints have also contributed to the problem. In many oil fields, pipelines, gas-processing facilities, and storage infrastructure are insufficient to handle associated gas. Without these systems in place, companies often resort to flaring simply because there is no alternative outlet for the gas. These structural factors mean that Nigeria’s gas-flaring problem is not merely regulatory; it is deeply embedded in the economics and infrastructure of the oil industry.

Climate Ambition Meets Fossil-Fuel Expansion

The deeper policy contradiction becomes clearer when Nigeria’s climate ambitions are compared with its broader energy strategy. Nigeria’s net-zero pledge implies a gradual reduction in fossil-fuel emissions over the coming decades. Yet the country continues to encourage increased oil and gas production, seeing the sector as essential for economic growth, government revenue, and energy security. Expanding oil production inevitably produces more associated gas. Unless gas-capture infrastructure expands at the same pace, the risk of flaring remains high. This structural tension is what makes Nigeria’s climate policy particularly curious. On the one hand, the country seeks to reduce emissions. On the other hand, it relies heavily on fossil-fuel extraction to fund its economy. Gas, therefore, occupies a paradoxical position in Nigeria’s transition strategy: it is simultaneously presented as a climate solution and a source of ongoing emissions.

Unanswered Questions in Nigeria’s Energy Transition

The debate around gas flaring ultimately raises deeper questions about governance and accountability. If gas flaring has been prohibited in law since the 1980s, why does it remain widespread today? How effectively are regulatory agencies such as the NUPRC enforcing flare-reduction targets across hundreds of oil facilities? Can Nigeria simultaneously expand oil production and still meet the emission-reduction targets outlined in its NDC? And perhaps most importantly, will the 2030 zero-flaring target finally be enforced, or will it join the long list of deadlines that quietly slipped into the past? Nigeria’s climate ambition is not inherently incompatible with economic development. The country has abundant renewable-energy potential, vast natural-gas resources that could replace dirtier fuels within a well-thought-out climate-policy framework. But the credibility of its net-zero ambition will ultimately depend on implementation rather than declarations. Ending routine gas flaring is widely considered one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions in the oil sector. If Nigeria can successfully capture and utilize the gas that is currently burned, it would not only cut emissions but also unlock billions of dollars in energy value. Until that happens, however, the flames that light up the Niger Delta each night will continue to symbolize a troubling contradiction, one where climate promises coexist with the persistent burning of resources into the atmosphere.

Trends and Threads

Future-proofing Jobs for the Emerging Green Economy

Public awareness about climate change is growing in Nigeria. There is often the talk about floods devastating communities in the Middle Belt, advancing desertification in the North, and oil pollution that has scarred ecosystems in the Niger Delta. Experts talk about renewable energy opportunities, climate finance, and the need to transition to a low-carbon economy. But there are questions about the skills and competencies to tackle the challenge in a sustainable way. The reality is that a green economy cannot exist without a green workforce, and a green workforce cannot exist without education systems that deliberately prepare people for it. The conversation Nigeria needs to have today is not only about climate awareness, targets or environmental regulations. It is about something more foundational. Is Nigeria educating the generation that will build its green future?

What the Law Says

Nigeria may not yet be having this conversation sufficiently enough but the Climate Change Act enacted some helpful provisions. Section 26 of the Act addresses climate change education by mandating the National Council on Climate Change Secretariat to advise the institutions responsible for regulating Nigeria’s educational curriculum to integrate climate change into disciplines and subjects across levels of education. The section also encourages collaboration with universities and research institutions to support scientific studies that contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation. On paper, this may appear like a modest directive. In reality, it represents a profound shift in thinking. For decades, environmental issues in Nigeria were treated largely as technical concerns handled by environmental agencies. Section 26 reframes climate change as something much broader. It recognizes that climate change is not just a policy problem, it is also a knowledge gap problem which can be solved by requiring education systems to evolve with the realities of the world.

Nigeria’s Green Economy Will Be Built by Skills, Not Slogans

Across the world, the global economy is undergoing a structural transformation. Countries are investing heavily in renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, circular production systems, environmental monitoring technologies, and climate-resilient agriculture. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that millions of jobs will emerge globally in sectors linked to sustainability and environmental protection- jobs commonly referred to as green jobs. They range from engineers installing solar systems to analysts working in climate finance, from environmental scientists conducting ecosystem assessments to sustainability professionals helping corporations meet environmental reporting standards. Nigeria has enormous potential to participate in this emerging economy. The country has one of the largest solar energy potentials in Africa. It possesses vast agricultural landscapes that could benefit from climate-smart farming practices. Its rapidly growing urban centers will require sustainable infrastructure and resilient planning systems. But participation in the green economy requires something that Nigeria currently lacks in sufficient quantity: the ‘green expertise.’ Yet Nigeria’s education system is only beginning to respond to this growing demand. Without deliberate intervention, Nigeria risks facing a future where the demand for climate expertise continues to outpace the supply of professionals capable of providing it.

Stipulation for Government Institutions

Another provision in the Climate Change Act hints at how deeply climate thinking is expected to reshape public governance. The law mandates that Climate Change Desks be established across ministries, departments, and agencies. At first glance, this might appear administrative. But in reality, it signals a structural shift in how government is expected to function. Climate considerations are no longer meant to sit inside a single environmental ministry. They must now influence policy decisions across sectors. Agriculture must plan for climate-induced drought and changing rainfall patterns. Urban development must anticipate flooding and extreme heat events. Energy planning must consider the transition toward renewable systems. Infrastructure investments must account for climate resilience. In effect, the Act is asking Nigeria’s public sector to embed climate thinking into the DNA of governance. However, institutions cannot think differently unless the people inside them are trained to do so. Climate desks require professionals who understand environmental policy analysis, sustainability metrics, emissions tracking, and climate risk modelling. For emerging experts in climate, sustainability, and environmental governance, this represents a significant shift. Nigeria’s public institutions will therefore increasingly require climate competence to tackle the climate problems the country is faced with.

New University Signals a New Direction

There are also signs that Nigeria is beginning to recognize the importance of filling the environmental knowledge gap. One of the most symbolic examples is the creation of the Federal University of Environment and Technology in the Niger Delta. The university was established to focus on environmental science, pollution management, ecological restoration, and sustainability research. Its location is deeply symbolic. For decades, the Niger Delta has stood as one of the most visible examples of environmental degradation associated with resource extraction. Oil exploration brought economic benefits but also left behind damaged ecosystems, polluted water bodies, and communities grappling with environmental injustice. Establishing a university dedicated to environmental and pollution studies within this region sends a powerful message: it acknowledges that Nigeria’s environmental challenges require knowledge institutions capable of generating solutions and such institutions can train the scientists, engineers, and policy specialists who will be responsible for restoring ecosystems, monitoring pollution, and developing sustainable development strategies. If nurtured properly, this university could evolve into a regional centre of excellence in environmental research and climate innovation. More importantly, it represents a shift in Nigeria’s development narrative—from extraction to restoration, from reactive policy to proactive knowledge creation.

A Call to Key Public Entities

Achieving a green economy will require coordinated action across several ministries and government institutions.

The Federal Ministry of Education: The ministry plays the most critical role in implementing the climate education mandate outlined in the Climate Change Act. The ministry must work with relevant institutions to ensure climate education is integrated across Nigeria’s educational ecosystem. This integration should involve curriculum reform in primary and secondary schools, specialized climate programmes in universities, and technical training in renewable energy, environmental monitoring, and sustainable engineering. Without trained teachers and updated curricula, the legal provisions of the Climate Change Act will remain largely symbolic.

The Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment: The ministry has a duty toalign Nigeria’s labour policies with emerging green sectors. This includes recognising and categorizing green jobs in national labour statistics, supporting workforce reskilling programs for climate-related industries, and collaborating with vocational training institutions to prepare workers for renewable energy, environmental restoration, and green infrastructure. In practical terms, Nigeria must begin to treat climate skills as economic assets. A national strategy for green workforce development could help reduce unemployment while positioning Nigeria as a regional leader in sustainable development.

The Ministry of Youth Development: Nigeria has one of the youngest populations in the world, making youth engagement central to climate action. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Youth Development can play a transformative role by supporting youth-led climate innovation hubs, entrepreneurship programmes in renewable energy and recycling,  climate leadership fellowships, and green startup incubators. By empowering young Nigerians to participate in the green economy, the government can transform climate action into an engine for youth employment and innovation.

The Big Opportunity  

Nigeria’s transition toward a green economy will not happen overnight. It will take policy reforms, investment in clean technologies, stronger environmental governance, and international collaboration. But above all, it will require people equipped with the knowledge to drive change. The most important infrastructure of the green economy is not solar farms or wind turbines. It is human capital; Nigeria can either prepare its workforce to lead in this emerging economy—or watch other countries take the lead. The difference will depend largely on how seriously the country treats climate education today. Because the most important infrastructure of the green economy is not pipelines, power plants, or industrial facilities, it is people.