NESG’s Ambitious Manufacturing, Agriculture Growth Forecast

Dike Onwuamaeze examines the Nigerian Economic Summit Group 2026  Macroeconomic Outlook, which forecasts 8.0 and 6.0 annual growth rates for manufacturing and agricultural sectors

The Nigerian manufacturing and agricultural sectors are capable of attaining 8.0 per cent and 6.0 per cent annual growth rate respectively in 2026 and beyond. This is in spite of their respective fragile growth rates of 1.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent in 2025. In the last year, the manufacturing sector contributed a meager 3.40 per cent and controlled mere 8.3 per cent share of the country’s GDP. Likewise, the agricultural sector contributed 17. 8 per cent and controlled 27.1 per cent share of the GDP.

These forecasts were made by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled, “Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria,” which projected a 5.5 per cent economic growth for Nigeria in 2026 and the possibility of recording 8.0 GDP growth in 2029.

The outlook stated that accelerating manufacturing growth from 2.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent annually “requires significant investment in manufacturing fund disbursement, single-digit lending rates, Special Economic Zone operationalisation, and supply chain financing,” adding that “manufacturing expansion requires complementary infrastructure, domestic value chains, and regional integration.”

It also said that increasing agriculture’s productivity growth from 2.2 per cent in 2025 to 6.0 per cent annually from 2026 would moderate food price inflation rate to less than 15 per cent. But this would depend on extension service modernisation, additional input of more than 5,000 tractors and full operationalisation of ₦1 trillion agriculture’s fund.

It stated that “agricultural expansion underpins food security, rural employment, and exports.”

For the manufacturing and agricultural sectors to attain their respective projected growth rates, the NESG recommended the expansion of power generation capacity to 7,500+ MW by 2027, reduction of port turnaround time to between three and five days, and rehabilitation of more than 2,000 km road as non-negotiable factors.

It said that “infrastructure is the binding constraint for manufacturing expansion and export competitiveness.”

The report stated that an expansion of credit to private sector from 12-15 per cent to 20-22 per cent of GDP would require financial deepening, which could be facilitated by the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, resolution of non-performing loans (NPL) and integration of digital financial services.

The report stated that “financial deepening enables the mobilisation of private investment, which is essential for infrastructure and manufacturing growth” adding that “regulatory predictability, is critical for attracting long-term manufacturing investment.”

The NESG anchored the projected growth on the political will of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration to  press on with the current economic reforms it commenced in 2023 by consolidating its tangible, though minimal, benefits on the economy.

It warned that failure to sustain the tempo of the reform would result in the stagnation of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which would hinder economic growth by slowing productivity gains, limiting job creation, and constraining income growth. 

As these sectors struggle with policy inconsistencies, infrastructure deficits, unreliable power, and a lack of targeted investment persist, the economy will experience deindustrialisation and reinforce rural poverty.

NESG said: “Nigeria cannot afford to pause or regress. The demands of consolidation are as rigorous as those that drove the initial wave of reforms.

“Achieving a robust transformation, characterised by productive job creation, poverty reduction, enhanced services, and global competitiveness, depends on unwavering courage, commitment, and policy consistency.

“The path from fragile stabilisation to sustained prosperity is demanding, and stagnation or reversal would be unacceptable for a nation of immense resources and ambitions.

“This report provides the analytical foundation, evidence based context, and strategic direction necessary to make consolidation not just a policy priority, but a lived reality for Africa’s most populous country.”

The macroeconomic outlook described “consolidation as the bridge between short-term stabilisation and a future acceleration phase in which reforms are fully institutionalised and translated into broad-based, job-creating growth.”

The aim during the acceleration phase is to strengthen price and exchange rate stability, deepen fiscal discipline, and pivot from emergency crisis management to predictable, rules-based macroeconomic governance.

The NESG, therefore, urged the government to “consolidate recent gains and continue the country’s multi-year economic transformation roadmap, moving decisively from crisis-era stabilisation towards a more durable and inclusive growth path.”

It stated that Nigeria stands at a defining crossroads in its economic transformation journey. Following two years of bold and often difficult reforms implemented under extraordinarily challenging circumstances, the nation has begun to realise measurable stabilisation gains. These gains, although still fragile, have provided a crucial platform for pursuing the next, decisive phase of economic progress: the Consolidation phase of Nigeria’s economic transformation pathway.

For this reason, “2026 is more than a mere continuation of ongoing reforms or policies; it represents a pivotal inflection point with enormous significance for the country’s future. At stake is the very progress that has been painstakingly achieved through rigorous reforms; without consistency and effective reinforcing policies, there is a real danger of reversing these macroeconomic gains from the Stabilisation Phase,” NESG said.

It noted that this phase of the economic transformation framework would mark a clear shift from the stabilisation phase to a determined, strategic push for consolidation. 

Therefore, as the stabilisation process is actively materialising, painfully and gradually, it should not be viewed as an end in itself. Instead, the challenge now is to turn the fragile recovery into resilient and inclusive growth capable of withstanding future shocks and delivering sustained benefits to businesses, workers, and households across Nigeria.

The NESG argued that the consolidation phase marked a short to medium-term strategy that would solidify reform achievements, minimise policy reversals, and lay the groundwork for robust economic transformation. 

This phase is far more than a technical goal; it is the bridge to a truly sustainable economic growth and development. During the consolidation phase, reforms and gains become solidified, new sector-specific support programmes emerge, and policies are adapted to changing national conditions.  

The NESG said that this phase should be based on a careful review and evaluation of previous reforms to identify successes and address remaining challenges.

The NESG stated that the consolidation phase of the economic reform should be organised around four interlinked pillars. The first pillar is attracting private investment into manufacturing, agriculture, infrastructure, and priority services. This would require predictable policies, streamlined regulation, improved infrastructure and robust contract enforcement.

The second pillar is raising domestic productivity and strengthening local content through targeted investments in human capital, more effective extension systems, enhanced research, and integrated value chains that would reduce vulnerabilities and boost competitiveness.

The third pillar is creating decent jobs in labour-intensive sectors, supported by youth-focused programmes, entrepreneurship promotion and skills development to ensure that economic expansion delivers broad-based, inclusive prosperity and sustainable poverty reduction.

“First, macroeconomic anchoring that seeks to sustain disinflation, maintain positive real interest rates, preserve foreign exchange stability through higher reserves and export diversification, and pursue spending-focused fiscal consolidation rather than relying solely on revenue increases.

“Second, is structural transformation that is focused on accelerating manufacturing and agricultural productivity, addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in power and logistics, and deepening financial intermediation to raise private-sector credit as a share of the GDP.

“Third, is institutional strengthening that prioritises effective implementation of new tax and expenditure frameworks, regulatory coherence across levels of government, and stronger rule of law and contract enforcement to crowd in long-term private capital.

“The fourth pillar is social protection and jobs interventions schemes that could expand targeted safety nets and scale youth-focused skills and apprenticeship programmes so that reforms remain socially and politically sustainable,” the report said.

 In 2026, the agenda should centre on clearer inflation targeting, prudent monetary policy, credible tax implementation under stronger fiscal–regulatory coordination, continued FX market liberalisation, power‑sector “quick wins” via a focused reform roadmap, and an expanded apprenticeship scheme incentivised through tax relief.

The report stated that between 2026 and 2028, the consolidation should be deepened through export‑led industrialisation, stronger agricultural value chains, operational special economic zones and clusters, wider MSME access to affordable credit, scaled digital infrastructure and literacy, and streamlined, technology‑enabled business regulation to lower costs and crowd in private investment.

According to the Chief Executive Officer of NESG, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, Nigeria enters 2026 at a crucial point in its economic journey where the choices made in within the year would determine whether recent reforms are institutionalised and translated into broad-based welfare improvements, or whether fragile gains are eroded by policy inconsistency, reform fatigue, and implementation gaps.

The NESG emphasisedthat creating conditions for economic and structuraltransformation will make the consolidation phase to be beyond passive maintenance. The phase should be focused on deliberately embedding structural reforms into the economy’s institutional and incentive architecture. This would ensure that the economy transition from reliance on stabilisation levellers to fully activating economic growth drivers. 

This involves reinforcing sectoral strategies (industry, agriculture, and services) with infrastructure investments, regulatory clarity, and human capital programmes designed to drive productivity gains. 

The report said that countries undergoing successful transitions utilise consolidation periods to target productivity in non-traditional sectors and implement policies to deepen forward and backward linkages.

“This stage is where the gains from initial reforms are locked in, the foundation for long-term growth is solidified, and policy interventions are operationalised to move from recovery to sustained transformation,” it said.

To pave the way for the attainment of the projected sectoral growth, the NESG recommended the launching of export-led manufacturing initiatives that are focused on identified priority sectors in collaboration with the private sector. It also called for the establishment of industrial clusters in partnership with state governments and facilitated by development partners through technical expertise and financing.

The NESG also urged for the implementation of programmes that would link smallholders with processors and exporters, improve extension services, and develop rural infrastructure. It said that private agribusiness investments should be incentivised through credit schemes supported by development banks.

The NESG also called for the operationalisation of special economic zones with streamlined regulations where the government works with private investors to provide infrastructure and service guarantees, while development partners support capacity building in cluster management.