2027: Of Coalitions and Politics of Resentment

Fidelis David, in this report, observes that Nigeria’s post-1999 democratic journey has repeatedly oscillated between moments of public hope and long cycles of elite recycling, where political failure is rarely punished, but rebranded.

From the hurried alliances that produced the 2015 transition to the transactional coalitions that dominate current opposition conversations, power has often changed hands without changing character.

Suffice to say it’s against this backdrop that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Prince Adewole Adebayo, has deliberately chosen a more demanding political route: a refusal to allow anger to substitute for ideas, a rejection of elite rehabilitation without accountability, and a resistance to coalition politics built solely on convenience rather than conviction as the 2027 general election approaches.

Adebayo does not speak like a politician in a hurry. In a political climate increasingly defined by defections, tactical silences and rushed alliances, he insists on slowing the national conversation, asking Nigerians to interrogate not merely who seeks power in 2027, but why, and at what moral cost.

The SDP standard-bearer spoke with journalists in Ondo town on the sidelines of the 2025 Prince Adewole Adebayo Christmas Marathon and Queen Lilian Adebayo Health Walk. The civic event provided the setting for a wide-ranging interrogation of Nigeria’s politics, economy and democratic future, during which Adebayo issued a pointed warning against what he described as the growing temptation to “smuggle worse leaders into power” under the banner of opposition unity.

“I am not against coalition. But that common purpose must have meaning in the life of ordinary Nigerians. The fact that I do not like President Bola Tinubu does not mean I should accept the same bad governance tendencies from other people.”

For Adebayo, opposition politics built purely on resentment is a trap. To illustrate, he deployed a metaphor that has become emblematic of his critique. “What is the point for a chicken to vote among three people debating how best to kill it?. One says roast it, another says fry it, another says parboil it. How does the chicken vote for any of them?” he asked.

He cautioned that public anger over hardship, insecurity and economic decline could be exploited by political actors whose records are worse than those they seek to replace. “Many of those coming will be worse. They want to capitalise on the obvious bad performance of government to ride the wave of anger”, he warned.

That philosophy, he said, has guided the SDP’s internal screening process. According to him, several politicians seeking refuge in the party were turned away. “Some people came to our party and we told them to go away. You cannot say you want to rescue Nigeria when you are a fraud.”

Recalling one episode, he added: “You brought an aeroplane from Ethiopia, painted it, took pictures for one hour and the plane disappeared. How can you sit next to me and ruin my life with that useless photograph?”

Asked to assess the state of the nation in 2025, Adebayo delivered a scathing verdict. “For Nigerians, it was a wasted year. For people in government, it was a year of loot,” he said, accusing the political class of unseriousness and constitutional recklessness.

He questioned the Federal Government’s fiscal management, describing the operation of multiple budgets concurrently as both unconstitutional and absurd. “How can you run three fiscal budgets at the same time, violating three appropriation acts? That fellow should have been impeached long ago.”

Adebayo also lamented Nigeria’s diplomatic vacuum, noting that the country has continued without substantive ambassadors while political loyalists are appointed as “New Hope ambassadors.” For him, it symbolised a state captured by patronage rather than competence.

On education, he described the student loan scheme as “the most dangerous youth enslavement programme ever conceived. Our constitution says education must be affordable. You cannot steal tuition money, shut schools down, and then loan the same money back to students with interest.”

With the Federal Government implementing a sweeping tax reform law, Adebayo offered one of his most detailed critiques, dismissing the policy as unjust, impractical and legally suspect. “It is a bad law. It is meaningless. It is a distraction,” he said, arguing that it fails the basic principles of taxation.

According to him, taxation must stimulate production, distribute resources fairly, generate sustainable revenue and remain simple enough for ordinary citizens to understand. “You cannot create a tax law that makes a woman selling akara think she needs to hire a lawyer,” he said, noting widespread fear among traders, mechanics and small business owners.

Beyond incompetence, Adebayo alleged a deeper motive: concentration of power. “What they want is fiscal singularity. Political singularity has already been achieved. Now they want economic and administrative singularity.”

He criticised the outsourcing of revenue collection to private consultants, describing it as a violation of sovereignty. “Revenue collection is a sovereign duty. Using private consultants is like hiring mercenaries to do the work of the armed forces.”

More troubling, he noted allegations by lawmakers that the version of the law being circulated differs from what the National Assembly approved. “If provisions were inserted without parliamentary approval, then this is criminality,” he said.

According to him, the rush to implement the law is driven by electoral funding needs. “They need money for elections. They want to continue collecting your money even after they leave office,” he said. “That is how you permanently subjugate a people.”

Reflecting on the SDP’s 2023 performance, Adebayo admitted internal shortcomings. “We didn’t start on time. We had not competed seriously in previous elections.”

However, he insisted that systemic electoral failure was decisive. “It was not a proper election. It was a criminal enterprise, buying votes, stealing votes and falsifying results,” he said.

The SDP, he noted, refused to engage in such practices. “Since we don’t have that kind of talent and we don’t want it, we couldn’t do well in that kind of election.”

Looking ahead, he said the party is reforming internally while championing electoral reform nationally. “INEC must be credible. Technology must work. Results must reflect the votes cast.”

Despite ongoing talks with opposition figures, Adebayo rejected calls for forced regime change or coalitions built solely on opposition to Tinubu.

“I don’t support coups. I don’t sabotage governments. Governments are elected for fixed terms. When elections come, Nigerians should vote them out.”

He stressed that dislike for Tinubu is not enough. “Politics is not played at the level of hatred,” he said. “You must be sure that those you are aligning with do not share the same bad tendencies.”

Recalling the 2015 transition, he said he warned that replacing a failing government with worse leadership would deepen Nigeria’s crisis. “History proved that point,” he said.

Any coalition, he argued, must be built on accountability. “Some people need to go on an apology tour. You must confess your role in Nigeria’s problems.”

He rejected alliances with politicians facing corruption charges. “Some are coming straight from EFCC custody claiming they want to rescue Nigeria,” he said. “There are too many unemployed politicians.”

Asked directly about 2027, Adebayo was unequivocal. “I am running, my party officially knows that I am contesting.”

Equally firm was his rejection of the ruling APC. “My dead body can never join it,” he declared. “Because I am not a criminal.”

He said his party has chosen principle over power. “If we cannot help Nigerians, let’s not kill them. It is better not to enter government at all than to become enemies of the people.”

According to him, Nigeria is not short of talent but overrun by career politicians addicted to patronage. “Some people cannot survive outside government for six hours. Free cars, free houses, that is what drives their politics.”

Adebayo lamented what he described as the collapse of civil society and the moral drift of the media. “We must stop lying to ourselves. The government is already lying, don’t compete with them.”

He urged Nigerians to organise rather than rationalise suffering. “You cannot analyse away hunger. You must take action.”