Total NTB Subscription Hits N32.66trn as Rate on 364-Day Slips to 16.04%

Kayode Tokede 

The Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) total subscription increased to N32.66 trillion in 11 months of 2025 amid  its risk-free instruments as investors hedge against double-digit inflation rate in the country. 

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s  ‘Primary Market’ data, the N32.66 trillion NTB total subscription  is 5.7 per cent drop when compared to N34.63 trillion total subscription  in 11 months of 2024.  

NTB is a short-term debt instruments issued by a government at the primary market to raise funds and manage liquidity in the economy. It is considered one of the safest investments because it is backed by the government.

THISDAY analysis of the numbers showed that the CBN offered to raise N10.65 trillion from the NTB market in 11 months of 2025, about 56.6 per cent increase over  N6.8 trillion offered in the corresponding period of 2024.

It eventually settled for N13.07 trillion from investors, which is about a 12.4 per cent hike over N11.63trillion total amount raised in 11 months of 2024. 

Amid massive subscription, the spot rates on 364-Day NTB dropped to  16.40 per cent as of the November 2025 auction from  23.50 per cent  November 2024. 

The stop rate on 182-Day moved from 18.6 per cent November 2024 to  15.50per cent as of November 2025, while the rate on 91-Day NTB closed November  2025 at 15.00per  cent from 18per cent November 2024. 

The CBN has been scaling back on elevated discount rates offered on the NTB due to strong demand and the fact that the benchmark interest rate has raced ahead of the country’s headline inflation that has seen decline in recent months.

By tightening its monetary policy through higher interest rates and large NTB auctions, the CBN aims to curb rising inflation and stabilise the foreign exchange rate, thereby fostering a more balanced economic environment.

This have reflected in the  dwindling inflation rate, currently at 16.05 per cent as of October  2025,  to mark a decrease from previous months. 

Further analysis revealed that investors demand for long maturities NTBs continued to grow as its stop rate reached 20.32 per cent as of Feb 5, 2025, the highest so far this year.

The variation in stop rates across tenors also offers insight into investor sentiment regarding short-, medium-, and long-term economic outlooks.

While the lower stop rate on the 182-day NTB bill suggests anticipation of stable interest rates, the higher stop rate on the 364-day NTB could imply a cautious stance towards potential future economic volatilities.

Investors’ diversified demand across the different maturities of NTB reflects strategic positioning for various investment horizons and signals a healthy trading environment in the Nigerian debt market.

The Mr. Olayemi Cardoso-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN has cut down the interest rate to 27 per cent from 27.50 per cent as inflation rate in Nigeria has seen downward movement in recent  months.

Analysts at Cordros Research in a report titled, ‘Nigeria in 2025. Reform to Recovery: Navigating the Rebound’, stated that the domestic fixed income market remained characteristically volatile in 2024, driven by several factors such as the tight monetary policy stance by the MPC to tether soaring inflation, the repricing of instruments to attract FPIs and improve the real return profile for local investors,  the demand and supply imbalance given the government’s large financing needs, and  the tight liquidity in the financial system.

They noted that domestic borrowings in the domestic market surged this year, partly due to the federal government’s refinancing of the CBN’s Ways & Means despite a lower-than-budgeted deficit.

Analysts at Cordros Research,  commenting on the implication of the 27 per  cent MPR cut on fixed income  instrument said,  “We expect the ease in monetary conditions and dovish policy guidance to anchor a broad-based moderation in yields across the fixed income curve.

“At the short end, OMO and NTB yields are expected to pare as improved liquidity fuels strong demand for short-dated instruments, flattening the curve in the near term. In the bond market, mid-tenor papers are expected to benefit the most from stronger demand, driving faster yield compression relative to the long end, where elevated fiscal borrowing requirements may temper declines.

“Meanwhile, lower sovereign benchmarks will cascade into the corporate debt space, reducing borrowing costs and supporting refinancing activity, even as credit risk premia keep spreads differentiated across issuers. Collectively, these dynamics point to a bull phase in fixed income, characterised by stronger duration demand, more active corporate issuance, and a recalibration of yield expectations across all market segments.”