With Meagre 2,000 Bpd Additional Output, Nigeria’s OPEC Oil Growth Stalled in July

•Oil cartel raises 2026 crude demand forecast

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria’s crude oil production growth slowed in July, even as other key members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) posted robust increases, new OPEC data has shown.

According to the group’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), rooted in self-reported data, Nigeria pumped an average of 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, a marginal rise of just 2,000 bpd from the 1.505 million bpd recorded in June.

This represented one of the smallest month-on-month increases among OPEC members with available data, underscoring the country’s continued struggle to ramp up production despite recent government pledges and security interventions in the Niger Delta.

By contrast, some of Nigeria’s peers recorded far larger gains. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, boosted output by 165,000 bpd to 9.525 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates added 108,000 bpd, bringing its production to 3.141 million bpd. Iraq and Kuwait also posted increases of 65,000 bpd and 25,000 bpd respectively, while Venezuela lifted output by 15,000 bpd.

However, Nigeria’s latest production figures still remain above the 2023 average of 1.187 million bpd, but the month’s subdued growth raises concerns about the country’s ability to hit its medium-term target of 2 million bpd.

In the past, persistent pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and infrastructure downtime had  plagued Africa’s largest oil producer, eroding its capacity to take full advantage of higher global oil prices. But the authorities maintain that these challenges are subsiding.

Nigeria’s July output represented about 9.4 per cent of total OPEC production for the month among members with reported figures. However, the latest data showed the country’s share in the group’s output growth was minimal.

Total OPEC production data for the month was not fully compiled due to missing figures for some members such as Iran and Gabon, but among those reporting, combined output increases exceeded 500,000 bpd.

The slow growth comes at a time when the Nigerian government is banking on higher oil earnings to boost dollar inflows and stabilise the foreign exchange market. Crude oil remains the country’s top export and largest source of foreign currency, accounting for more than 70 percent of total export revenues.

Meanwhile, OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast for next year and trimmed its estimate for growth in supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market.

The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+, which groups OPEC with Russia and other allies, would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.

World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, the organisation said in the monthly report, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged, a Reuters report said.

The forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects world demand to rise by just 700,000 bpd this year.

In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3.0 per cent as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.

“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to U.S.-centred trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said.

Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $66 a barrel on Tuesday and $65.9 yesterday . It reached a four-year low near $58 in April.