Tobi Soniyi attempts to make sense of the confusion resulting from the raging debate over whether President Muhammadu Buhari should seek a renewal of his mandate or retire to his country home in Daura
The debate on whether President Muhammadu Buhari should seek another four years term in office has started in earnest. ‎
In law, the president is entitled to ask the electorate for another term‎ as he suffers no legal encumberance. He has a right to two terms of four years each.
While the legal aspect of the president’s qualification to ‎run is fairly straight forward, the issue however, becomes difficult when viewed politically.
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There appears to be ‎a general consensus that the president has performed below expectation. The people who hold a different view are those who are in government.
Until a former president, Olusegun Obasanjo issued a public statement advising Buhari not to seek a second term in office, none had been bold enough to make that statement categorically. While many have vilified him for speaking out, others described him as an opportunist who is merely playing to the gallery. Nevertheless, had Obasanjo kept quiet, he would still have been accused of keeping quiet. That is not why we are here.
Even among those working for the Buhari government and those who have sympathy for the government, are those who have been quite forthright to admit that their leader, the president has turned out to be a disappointed.
There are also those who, at the beginning saw that things were not going the way it should ‎and raised the alarm early enough but those controlling the president did not allow him to heed the sound of caution. In this group are the president’s wife, Aisha Buhari and the Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai.
Remember the governor’s 30-page‎ memo to the president in 2016? In the letter, El Rufai argued that their party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) had made the situation in Nigeria worse than it met it by failing to be proactive in taking key decisions in a timely manner.
He wrote: “In very blunt terms, Mr. President, our APC administration has not only failed to manage expectations of a populace that expected overnight ‘change’ but has failed to deliver even mundane matters of governance outside of our successes in fighting Boko Haram insurgency and corruption.
“Overall, the feeling even among our supporters today is that the APC government is not doing well.”
Had those who boxed the president to a corner allowed him to heed the governor’s advice, perhaps the president’s second term would have been a done deal.
For writing the letter, the cabal in the government castigated El-Rufai and limited his appearance in Aso Rock Villa.
El Rufai wrote to the president in September 2016. A month latter, the president’s wife Aisah Buhari issued a warning to her husband that she might not back him at the next election unless he shook up his government.
In a BBC interview, Aisha Buhari claimed her husband his government had been hijacked by only a “few people”, who were behind presidential appointments.
According to her, the president did not know most of the officials he had appointed.In an interview with Naziru Mikailu from BBC Hausa, Mrs Buhari said: “The president does not know 45 out of 50 of the people he appointed and I don’t know them either, despite being his wife of 27 years.”
She said people who did not share the vision of the ruling APC were appointed to top posts by influential people around Buhari.
“Some people are sitting down in their homes folding their arms only for them to be called to come and head an agency or a ministerial position,” she said.
Buhari, who then was on a visit to Germany, then responded by saying his wife belonged in his kitchen.
His wife’s decision to go public with her concerns will shock many people, but it shows the level of discontent with the president’s leadership, says the BBC’s Naziru Mikailu in the capital, Abuja.
Again, had the president listened to the voice of his wife, he would not have become the subject of scathing attacks. Nobody knew what she went through for speaking out.
Here we are, the president wants a second term but many believe that he does not deserve it.
Why Buhari Should Run Again
Unfortunately, there not too many good reasons to hand over the future of this country to Buhari for another four years. Nevertheless, for some reasons, it may be expedient to allow him to do another term.
To Sustain Zonal Arrangement
Like the People Democratic Party, the All Progressives Congress appears to have also settled for Arrangement of rotating power between the south and the north. Another assumption which is also settled is that both the PDP and the APC agreed that for 2019 to 2023
If this is the case, Buhari will have to do another term before power can go to the south. If APC decides to dump Buhari by picking another northerner, the new candidate is likely to insist on doing eight years if he wins. Anyone, who thinks this is not important should flash back to 2015. Perhaps, the PDP would have retained power it had fielded a candidate from the north for the presidency in 2015.
Of all the factors working in favour of Buhari, this remains the most potent at least from the political class point of view. To make sure that power does not remain in the north for twelve years, the southern politicians will support Buhari for another four years and will expect him to handover to someone from the south when he completes his term.
If PDP fields a candidate from the north and he wins, that candidate will likely seek another term of four years. That move is likely to keep power in the north for twelve years.
The calculation in the south is that Buhari remains the best bet to get power to return the south.
Four Years not Enough to Change Nigeria
Those rooting for Buhari have also argued that it is not possible to change the country within four years and therefore the president deserves a chance to take a another bite at the cherry, so the argument goes.
When reminded that the APC government has yet to fulfil many of its campaign promises including the promise to stop fuel importation and revive refineries among others, the Minister for Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed responded, “You see all these things are not things that you just pick on the shelf. They are things that require planning, require procedures, but I can assure you that everything we promised, everything is being undertaken at one level or the other of implementation.”
Closely related to this is the argument that it is unfair to compare the achievements of APC which has not done three years in office with PDP that ruled for sixteen years.
You Have no Choice But to Stay with Us
Another point raised by those calling on Buhari to seek a second term is that the country does not really have a choice. The PDP has not yet shown enough remorse to trust it with power. If not PDP which other political party has the national spread to challenge the APC? They asked? If PDP is not prepared to take back power and other political parties are not willing to come together to form one formidable party, then Nigerians don’t have a choice but to again go along with the APC or do they?
Buhari Has Done Well to Merit Another Term
There are those die hard supporters of Buhari who have argued that the president has done well. To support their claim, they listed ‘so many’ achievements recorded by the administration within its less than three years in government.
Since many Nigerians don’t seem to remember the achievements recorded by this administration, let us hear it from the government’s spokesman man, Mohammed: “Our success is out there. There are many indices with which you can measure whether a country is improving economically or not. Am glad to say that we have been able to grow our foreign reserves from $23billion to $40 billion despite the fact that for the larger part of the time oil sold for $30pb. This is the highest since 2014. This clearly does not indicate failure on the part of the government. Again, NBS said headline inflation has fallen for 11 consecutive months. It is now at 15.37 per cent as at December 2017. The target we set for our selves by the ERGP for inflation has been met and surpassed. You can’t talk about failure. Then the TSA has stopped hemoeraging, since we came in, from the treasury. We were even able to eliminate ghost workers and that has saved us over N120 billion. We have been able to save about N108 billion from the removal of maintenance fees payable to banks pre-TSA because we pay directly. We have saved N24.7billion monthly through determined implementation of TSA.
“You talked about jobs. What  jobs are we talking about? In agriculture, we have created an extra 6.2 million jobs. From 6 million jobs two and a half years ago, today we have about 12.‎2 million jobs in agricultural sector alone. How can anyone claim that we have not succeeded in creating jobs?
Our strategy in the area of encouraging local production of rice has worked. From 64,000 metric tonnes two and half a years ago, today we import less than 20,000 metric tonnes. You can imagine the kinds of saving that would bring to government. In the area of infrastructure, we also have good news. Power today is at an all high of 7000 megawatts and we are also able to transmit 7000 megawatts. In the area of distribution, we distribute over 5000 megawatts today and the extra 2000 megawatts which we can not distribute we are trying to get willing buyers for these megawatts. Still on infrastructure, the Lagos-Kano modern gauge is on course. We are very optimistic that by 2019 Lagos-Ibadan axis of it will be commissioned while the Kano-Kaduna modern gauge will also be ready by 2019. The coastal rail which will link 15 cities is also  being worked upon and we are hoping that by the year 2021 the entire, mostly the coastal rail and the modern gauge will be completed. On roads, contracts had been awarded for 25 major highways at the cost of N100 billion. Every geo-political zone of the country is included in this transformation of road infrastructure. These are things that the opposition does not want to hear. These facts are out there for anybody to go and verify.
“Again on security, we know we are winning the war‎ because when you are able to decimate an insurgency like Boko Haram, that a few years ago would match to Abuja, attacked the police headquarters, attacked United Nations headquarters, went to Nyanya in our own federal capital and you are able to restrict them to one corner of one state, I think you have scored a major success.
“The number of people captured by Boko Haram that were rescued are in hundreds of thousand as we speak today. Life is opening up in most part of the northeast. Yes, there will be occasional bombing, but  it is just a desperate drive of a defeated army. For you to judge us on security, look at what is happening globally, then you begin to appreciate what we are doing in the area of security.”
Why Buhari Does not Deserve a Second Term
In his recent public statement issued by Obasanjo, he gave many reasons why Buhari should not be given a second term. contained a number of reasons. The statement makes a good reading. Interestingly, the government failed, neglected or refused to respond to some of the critical issues he raised. As it is the practice in law, any averment not denied is deemed admitted. The presidency would be deemed to have admitted some of the allegations contained in the Obasanjo’s letter. But beyond that here is why many believe that the president should not be given a second chance.
Health Reasons
Last year, the president spent more than three months in a London Hospital attending to his health. Although, the vice president, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo did his best to hold the country together, the president’ absence was felt. There are claim, though unsubstantiated that after the illness, the president reduced the number of hours he spends attending to state matters. On health ground, many are of the opinion that Buhari should take a break to attend to his health. Given the number of days he spent on sick bed, it is difficult to disagree with those who say the president deserves a rest.
Insensitivity to the Feelings of other Ethnic Nationality
For too long, the president has carried on in such a way that he does not care about the feeling of other people except his tribesmen. For a general in the army who always like to flaunt his credentials as one of those who fought during the civil war to keep Nigeria one, that is a let down. It is inexcusable that the president would entrust the whole security in the hands of only those who speak his language and practise the same religion with him. That is how not to deepen the nation’s unity. On the contrary, such an arrangement tends to lead to suspicion among other ethnic nationalities.
It is the president’s insensitivity that reignited agitation for restructuring. It is the same lack of affection for other tribes that galvanised the south-east youths into supporting the now proscribed Indigenous Peoples of Biafra. It is this ‘I don’t care attitude’ of the president that is now threatening to destroy the National Intelligence Agency (NIA). If the Director General of the Department of State Security is from Kastina why appointing a Kaduna man as the Director General of NIA? Today, whether the Presidency accepts it or not, NIA is in crisis.
It is the same attitude that has forced directors of the NIA to issue a public statement warning of the devastating consequences that will follow if the president insists on the nomination of Ahmed Rufai Abubakar as DG NIA
Writing for and on behalf of  Concerned Directors of NIA‎, they used pseudo names‎ as E. O. Olanrawaju, Nelson Obiakor and Ahmed Sarki,to protect their real identities.
The directors described Abubakar as someone who is not unqualified for appointment as DG. NIA having “failed to merit elevation to the rank of director and who has retired from service to come and preside over people who are not only his seniors in rank but who fit into the order of precedence.‎”
According to them, in the history of  its inception 32 years ago , nobody below the rank of a director has been appointed as the head of NIA.
‎They warned that Abubakar’s appointment as DG NIA would certainly set a dangerous precedence, with equally dangerous implications.
“Coupled with the fact that it is an aberration to thrust the headship of Nigeria’s most sensitive security and intelligence organizations in the hands of people from the same ethnic stock, state and even town. In a country of over 200 million people, we feel it was not only highly contemptuous but dangerous,” they added.
They said:‎ “Already, the nation is in a precarious security condition, and further penetration by Hostile Intelligence Services could spell even greater danger. It is very unlikely that we will be insulated from penetration if we are treated as renegades after putting in our best for the country.‎”
Poor Handling of Fulani Herdsmen-farmers’ Clashes
‎If the federal government has admitted that it did not do enough to stop the herdsmen-farmers clashes, perhaps the tension generated by the killings would not have been this intense. Instead of admitting it’s failure, it chose to blame the killings in Benue on the passage of anti-grazing law in Benue. The Minister for Defence, Mansur Dan Ali insulted the collective intelligence of Nigerians when he said that it was the anti-grazing bill in Benue that caused the killings. He conveniently forgot that herdsmen had killed more people in Benue when there was no such law in the state. He did not know that it was his failure as a minister for defence that forced Benue to pass that law.
‎Many are willing to forgive the president for his poor handling of the economy but are unwilling to give him a second chance because he did not show enough leadership to stop the blood letting arising from the herdsmen-farmers’ clashes. Nigerians are very angry and have the right to be so angry. Many more are seething at the provocation by the herdsmen. The president has let them down. The president would have to do better than setting up committee to find a lasting solution to the crisis.
Poor Handling of the Economy
There is also consensus that the present administration has not done well in the management of the economy. At a point life became unbearable for many. The unemployment rate is scary. The opposition has capitalised on this to accuse the ruling government of incompetence. Government countered that by showcasing its efforts at revamping the nation’s infrastructures. It added that by the time, the massive works going on in roads and railways are completed, people would begin to feel the impact of the investment.
No doubt, this government started on on a faulty note economically, it has shown enough commitment to rebuilding the nation’s decayed infrastructures. Many of these projects have completion dates beyond 2019. It may be a wise decision to allow the government to complete these projects.
All the above notwithstanding, the Buhari government means different thing to different people. The electorate will have to vote in accordance with their conscience. So, let the people decide.
Unlike our past presidents, who during their first term played the politics in such ways that they would get a second term, Buhari has refused to allow ambition for a second term to enslave him. So far, he has governed with an attitude that tends to say, ‘I don’t care whether you give me a second term or not, am going to do what I have to do’, Otherwise, there are a lot of policy moves he could have taken to appease his critics which he did not take. Not sure he will feel so bad if he is not re-elected.
