Emefiele: Our Worst Days Behind Us

Godwin Emefiele
CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele

• Says CBN reviewing framework to help youth create jobs
•Soludo canvasses collective solution to national challenges

Ndubuisi Francis in Abuja and Christopher Isiguzo in Enugu

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele has affirmed that with the Nigerian economy exiting the recession, following a number of policy responses, the worst days were clearly behind the country.

Emefiele noted that based on analyses and understanding of the developments which confronted the country, the central bank took a number of measures, many of which were at the time vigorously criticised, but which helped the economy out of the recession.

Tracing the economic recession to the significant and persistent drop in commodity prices that affected the economy adversely, Emefiele said the resultant effect was depressed GDP growth, rising inflation, depreciation of the exchange rate, as well as depletion of the country’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves, and the decline in average FX inflows.

Emefiele, who delivered the 47th convocation lecture of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) yesterday, pointed out that the vulnerabilities of Nigeria to the global shocks were amplified because of the nation’s over-reliance on the oil sector for FX revenue and for government finances.
“Even at the height of high oil prices, rather than save, we drained our buffers through an excessive dependence on imports, most of which could be produced locally.

“Based on our analyses and understanding of these developments, the Bank took a number of measures many of which were at the time vigorously criticised,” he said.
The CBN governor noted that in the realm of monetary policies, the CBN embarked on a cycle of policy tightening to rein in inflation, using the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Open Market Operations (OMO).

In external reserve management, he noted that the CBN adopted demand management through essential commodities while a number of actions were taken in the area of exchange rate management to stabilise the exchange rate.
“In development finance, the Bank continued its financing activities in key high-impact sectors like power, aviation, education, MSME, agriculture, including CAC’s, ACGs, NIRSAL, the Anchor Borrowers’ Programnme, etc.

“In the light of these and other policy responses, we are delighted that the economy has turned the corner with our worst days clearly behind us,” Emefiele said, adding that gross domestic product (GDP) growth recovered after five quarters of continuous contraction while inflation dropped from a peak of 18.7 per cent in January 2017 to 15.9 per cent in November.

He also noted that the positive indicators also manifested in the areas of exchange rate appreciation, improved FX supply, recovery in FX reserves, significant boost in local production, as well as improvement in the World Bank’s ‘doing business indicator’.

The CBN chief executive, whose convocation lecture dwelt on “A Mindset for Succeeding in Today’s Nigeria”, noted that the boost in local production was important because of the demographic factors.
“Imagine that today, Nigeria is estimated to have a population of over 180 million people, and this population is predicted by the United Nations to be 398 million people by 2050, which would make Nigeria the third largest in the world by that time.

“These trends present a significant opportunity for our graduates to turn whatever challenges they may be facing into opportunities that can harness these demographic shift. Imagine what would happen if Nigeria and Nigerians cannot provide food, shelter, clothing, health, education, and other basic things for the teeming population.

“Even though these trends should already begin to bother current leaders in our country today, I believe that young Nigerians can begin today to see these trends as opportunities and think of what they can do to take advantage of the situation,” he observed.
He reeled off names of many young and successful Nigerians, who rather than complain about what the government did not do for them, identified common problems and needs of the society and created solutions that turned them into millionaires.

The CBN governor disclosed that the Bank was currently reviewing the broad framework of its development financing funds with a view to creating new channels through which entrepreneurs with great ideas can access credit without dissipating much effort.
Some of the central bank’s development financing fund initiatives include the N220 billion initiative for MSMEs, Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, and Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme, among others.

He disclosed that the federal government and the CBN were encouraging the Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and other development finance institutions to create awareness through which innovative entrepreneurs could access credit with a view to creating opportunities for job creation.
Emefiele also admonished universities and other tertiary institutions across the country to focus on research, evolve innovative approaches to job creation and income generation, and form business units, assuring that the CBN was willing to provide the necessary financing.

As part of the CBN’s efforts to address the challenges of unemployment, promote entrepreneurial spirits among Nigerian youths and enhance the spread of small and medium enterprises, Emefiele stated that the central bank designed and formulated a number of policies and programmes for direct real sector intervention.

According to him the Bank’s Youth Entrepreneurship Development Programme (YEDP), which was launched on March 15, 2016 and run in collaboration with banks and the National Youth Service Corp (NYSC) had helped recently discharged corps members access concessionary financing of up to N5 million for innovative job creating ventures.

Addressing the graduating students, Emefiele, himself an alumnus of the institution, urged young graduates to embrace the philosophy of being job creators rather than job seekers by availing themselves of the Bank’s financing window through creative entrepreneurial and innovative ways.

“As you leave the university and proceed to the NYSC, I encourage you graduands to take advantage of this. In addition, there is also the N220 billion CBN initiative to support micro, small and medium scale enterprises (MSMEs). This is aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship development and creating an environment that supports business success.

“It is our firm belief that our modest contributions are already yielding the expected dividends for all to see. These schemes are set up solely for your use, please take advantage of them,” the CBN governor advised.

He, however, admitted that the government was expected to provide the impetus and enabling environment while also acknowledging that there were problems associated with the ease of entrepreneurs accessing credit.

“Let me state that the federal government, including the CBN, is encouraging the Deposit Money Banks and other development finance institutions to create awareness through which innovative entrepreneurs can access credit with a view to creating opportunities for job creation.
“At the moment, the CBN is reviewing the broad framework of its development financing funds through which entrepreneurs with great ideas can access credit with minimal effort,” he said.
Emefiele, who noted that the lecture was a noble homecoming for him, having graduated from the university 34 years ago, said he always has nostalgic feelings about his alma mater.

In his remarks, the chairman of the convocation lecture and a former governor of the CBN, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, observed that in spite of the nation’s challenges, “there are flickers of hope”.
He told the graduating students that the message of Emefiele’s lecture was that as they graduate, they should find opportunities in the midst of adversity, noting that it may not be rosy out there for all of them.

Soludo, however, reminded the government that jobs cannot be created by applying the tools that held sway in the past decade but through creative and innovative ways.
While calling for creative thinking by all, Soludo noted that although the country has exited the recession, the development was propelled by the oil sector.
According to him, the non-oil sector still contracted based on the last GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), calling for a collective solution to the nation’s challenges.

  • Mazi JO

    You can sing the optimism with an eye to the DSS’s pursuit of the anarchists. I think that’s the area that will dilute the forward march. If any thing, every effort should be directed at restoring peace so that peaceful governance is restored and assured. We are better off Saving now to beef up the reserves to enhance the period of development waiting to roar in a very short time.

  • vic


  • Mystic mallam

    “Our worst days are over” says Mr Emefiele proffering several but inconsequential reasons to back up the claim. The only reason Emefiele is celebrating the end of worst times is the big spike in oil prices and the Niger Delta Avengers co-smiling with crocodiles for the moment. He knows deep inside himself, that when, not if, oil price dips again, Nigeria will fall back into ”worse times”. Has anyone heard Emefiele and the APC administration howling about diversification lately? What about the huge investments they promised in infrastructure development – with only 15% released of the 2017 capital budget while borrowing to augment consumption? Naturally, another election is nearby and we are talking wage increases and more consumption; from now onward, there’ll be only the occasional lip service to economic diversification until the next round of oil price collapse. Talk about clueless!!!

  • bigdaddy

    And we shall go into another recession nay depression once oil prices plummet again Mr Emefiele. Oil has always been the factor responsible for our economic fortunes/misfortune. All these window dressing “policies” you enumerated will do nothing to keep our heads above water if/when oil prices go down.
    The fantastic GDP witnessed in the latter years of OBJ and especially that of the clueless one from Otuoke were all due to fantastic oil prices, which his simpleton supporters kept attributing to the “magic of his economic team”. It was obvious the economy was already tanking in 2014 as oil prices began to fall (despite the magic of the economic team).
    2019 is around the corner and we are in big trouble. I believe the major gladiators will be Buhari (another clueless one) against Atiku (a kleptomaniac). I do not see us making any headway if these two emerge as the major contenders. I pray for some miracle.

    • William Norris

      Let’s get real. Real life.

      Nigeria went from DEPENDENCE on cement importation to surplus cement production and export…this happened due to a SPECIFIC policy program of privatization& deregulation initiated and SUSTAINED under three PDP Presidencies. The law was the Cement Reverse Integration Program. There was a lot of opposition to it from socialist minded Nigerians…also opposition to telecom liberalization and reduction of fuel subsidies at that time. The government pressed on and cement reforms went ahead.

      I did heavy contract work for Unicem in the jungle in Cross River State. I also bought shares in cement companies. Dangote, BUA and the various Lafarge companies are all competing and thriving and prices have generally decreased over the past decade.

      Thousands of jobs and investment was created in the cement and some associated areas of the SOLID minerals and mining sector.

      That is what brought me to Nigeria in 2003. I experienced the changes in that sector directly, both the ups and downs.

      So what exactly revived the cement sector….POLICY or CRUDE oil prices?

      • bigdaddy

        Every administration can point to an achievement during it’s lifetime. The fact is, every single one of them was a failure on the whole. You do not praise a student because he/she scored 10/100.

        OBJ did well in the Telecoms/cement sectors but lets keep our focus on our point of discourse, which is our GDP. If the cement/telecom industry were enough to sustain economic growth, we would not be having this discussion. What he left undone has proven to be the Achilles heel of our country- the oil sector, lack of liberalization of the financial sector and finally the political/fiscal structure of the country. Or do you want to argue to the contrary?

        You mentioned the 3 PDP administrations.
        1. Only OBJ’s admin deserves some level of sympathy. He spent his first term trying to get his wits around him (after being incarcerated in yola prison and losing his mind) without achieving anything significant. He recovered somewhat in his 2nd term and with RISING OIL PRICES (yes that phrase again) and those good policies you mentioned, our GDP began it’s superb climb. (90% of that GDP was due to good oil prices my good friend. Before he knew what was happening, his term was up. To his credit, he had grown our FXR to $42B USD and had $22B USD in ECA and he had paid $15BUSD to our creditors to get us debt free.
        2. In came Yar’adua, a dead man walking who literally ruled the country in the manner i described him. The country went on autopilot and he spent 2 of the 3yrs he was lucid cancelling every project/policy OBJ initiated in the oil, financial and power sectors, without adding to our debt or touching the reserves handed over to him by OBJ.
        3. Then came the drunkard and clueless one from Otuoke. Not only did he blow up the ECA account and cream off $10B USD from the FXR, he did not save a penny despite higher oil prices never before seen, he did not initiate a single policy to reduce our dependence on oil like all those that came before(and after him),and to cap it all, he opened the doors to the treasury widely to unprecedented looting. And the most unfortunate thing is you cannot locate major structural projects worth a fraction of what he frittered away.
        In summary, yes there were nice policies OBJ initiated. They apparently were not sufficient to make us non dependent on oil. My premise still subsists, and that is, Our GDP is and has always depended largely on high oil prices.

        • William Norris

          I didn’t see any answer to my query. Nigeria GDP is NOT oil dependent and here’s the answer….oil prices had nothing to do with the revival of cement. It happened because government ALLOWED the free market to work.
          Your invective can’t change that fact.

          Now try and learn. This isn’t about winning arguments. CRUDE OIL and natural gas comprise only about 15% of Nigeria GDP. Yeah, many Nigerians don’t know that. Don’t take my word for it, just Google and choose credible sources. Go on and thank me later.

          The Nigerian economy prospered under PDP because they ALLOWED FREE MARKETS to expand into some sectors. I gave cement as an example and it’s in plain sight. Other sectors that expanded are well known and DATA FROM CREDIBLE SOURCES has documented it and more importantly, Nigerians experienced it more BROADLY than the oil booms of the past.
          EVIDENCE….the freer markets allowed CREATION and enjoyment of more telecoms, cement and banking services and jobs in those sectors than during past CRUDE oil booms! It’s that simple!

          That expansion of markets ended in Jan 2012. I was there, I saw it with my own eyes, I argued and tried to warn people and those I knew in government many of whom are still there. The same Civil Servants are still affirming government control of the iron & steel sector. What has that to do with CRUDE oil?

          The problem in Nigeria is too much government control, ownership and price regulation of the economy and it’s potentially productive resources. This is very clear from the last 18 years. It’s worrisome that even educated Nigerians can’t process and come to grips with this REAL WORLD fact that has played out in front of our eyes.

          Too much Government is the problem. Stop lying to yourselves about CORRUPTION and hundreds of billions of dollars missing and lack of infrastructure.

          Nigerians are GENERALLY UNPRODUCTIVE because the majority support governments that DISINCENTIVIZE production in favor of consumption.

          • bigdaddy

            I answered you but you chose not to see it. What you rehashed here i did concede largely in my reply . Everyone knows our GDP is largely not due to oil. What we are debating is what fuels our economic growth, why are experiencing growth now and why we came out of recession. Whenever we achieve growth, it is always fueled largely by high oil prices and not government policy. I hope you are not conflating our GDP with it’s rate of growth whose driver has always been oil money.

          • William Norris

            Sir, the reason Nigerians – unproductive Nigerians – get so distressed when oil prices falls is because

            – crude oil is OWNED by government, it has been STOLEN from the peoples of the oil producing coommunities and is the largest source of government revenue.

            – Nigerians in their MAJORITY have a strong PREFERENCE to fight and obtain a share of that stolen revenue…rather than WORK to get money.

            As such, when there is a decrease in CRUDE oil revenue, there is much distress because Nigerians have become DEPENDENT on the sharing of government revenue.

            The minority of Nigerians who work hard generally do not suffer as much distress as say, government workers.

          • bigdaddy

            The Nigerian economy depends largely on government spending. Everyone, every entity feels it when the government has no money to spend, hence the dependence on oil.
            Can you tell me why governments the world over spend like crazy to get their economies out of trouble during recessions?
            As things stand today in Nigeria, nobody will even consider us credit worthy without the revenues from oil. They certainly will not lend to us based on the cement or telecoms sectors, the two shining lights of the obj admin.

          • William Norris

            It’s a very GOOD THING that cement and telecoms don’t contribute a lot to government revenue. That’s LESS MONEY for the government to mismanage.

            Read how TAXES have suppressed and almost KILLED the aviation industry….




            Next time you take a flight in Nigeria, take a minute and glance at the receipt for your ticket.

            The petroleum industry and the entire ENERGY sector is being sucked to death by the government!!! Go and read the monthly published NNPC accounts and see for yourself.

            It appears you don’t even understand the fundamentals of market economics. When something is TAXED, those engaged in that activity tend to do it LESS. If government imposes a high tax on bus travel in Nigeria, you can be sure the bus industry will SHRINK.

            Please go and get acquinted will economic theory and PRACTICE and stop all this emotional appeal that amounts to nothing but begging for a piece of the National Caked baked in the Niger Delta.

          • bigdaddy

            It seems you are finding it hard to stay on message.

          • William Norris

            What I wrote is plain as day.

            Government is CORRUPT & INEFFICIENT so it’s better to have LOW TAXES and limited government involvement in every sector, to ensure efficient growth.

            Here’s your government at work, National Assembly has passed the law to establish the Peace Corps. All that’s remains is for the President to sign it.

            That’s MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING, more employees who will be recruited because they KNOW SOMEBODY, not because they’re productive.

            That’s 230,000 extra people on the Government payroll, when it’s having a hard time paying current employees who use up 75% of government revenue in just SALARY & OVERHEAD.

            More government….sweet!!!

          • bigdaddy

            Keep your mind on what is responsible for our economic growth as things stand today.

          • William Norris

            I already pointed out how TAXES and government ownership of airports and heavy regulation is killing the airlines TODAY.

            I supplied relevant links. Remember to check your receipt next time you fly.

            OK, I’m done here. I should have learned by now that most Nigerians are obtuse and the better “educated” the worse the affliction.

            Enjoy the CHANGE.

          • FrNinja

            Is that why britain with 40% income tax is productive or US with an effective tax rate of over 35%? Why didnt amazon.com develop in Nigeria where VAT is 5% and where income tax is rarely paid?

          • William Norris

            Amazon might not invest in Nigeria for a variety of reasons. High taxes might actually be one of them. I’ve not researched the matter but who knows?

            US and UK are cohesive societies dominated by the Anglo-Saxon tribe. People willingly pay taxes to support their country and to support development in general.

            The USA though is becoming MORE diverse and Anglo-Saxon dominance is waning a bit. A glance at the DEMOGRAPHICS of both countries will be worth your while.

            Scandinavian nations have very high taxes. Study their DEMOGRAPHICS.

            So just YESTERDAY the US Congress passed law to enable a MAJOR REDUCTION in taxes for rich…mostly White… people and corporations. The US corporate tax will go from 35% to 20% for example.



            Sir, the REAL WORLD is still real.

          • FrNinja

            People pay taxes as a condition for belonging to an entity that they live from. The US government at least puts its taxes to good use. Roads are well constructed, cities have mass transit systems (not primitive okada and keke), sewage, water systems, education is subsidized, research is subsidized. The benefits for creating an amazon (which uses a lot of technology gleaned from the US DOD/NSF in its functions are evident.

            Nigeria? Paying taxes is like giving your salary to a thief. How many SYSTEMS has Nigerian government run effectively? Telecoms – Failure, Airports – Failure, Power – Failure, Roads – Failure, Water – Failure. Just go to google maps and look at Nigerian cities – most built up less than 60 years ago. Does it look like there is a government in charge of urban planning?

          • William Norris

            LOL…why is the USA government cutting taxes TODAY?

            Socialism is good for slogans.

            Real Life is what we all have to deal with every day.

          • William Norris

            The US government is CUTTING TAXES….your most admired country is CUTTING TAXES by HISTORIC AMOUNTS in a bill passed just yesterday by the Congress.

            The USA recognizes that taxes are an impediment to prosperity in an increasingly diverse nation.

          • FrNinja

            You mean the republicans are cutting taxes for the rich. America with public debt of 20 trillion has stuck another middle finger to anyone holding the dollar.

          • William Norris

            You don’t admire the USA anymore?!? The Republicans were ELECTED by their people. Or you want a China type DICTATORSHIP?

            That’s your 3rd “policy super somersault” in our discussions here.

            What’s going on?

      • FrNinja

        Fact is that what boosted the Nigerian cement industry was protectionism. Cement importers were given quotas based on setting up local factories. Its called import substitution. After production capacity could meet local demand cement imports were banned. Cement prices in Nigeria remains higher than what is available on world markets. The likes of Lafarge and Dangote make obscene profits on Nigeria on a commodity that is widely available.

        • William Norris

          What ? YOU oppose protection policy now?

          A big part of cement industry success is ALSO privatization.

          Over 95% of cement factories in this country were owned by State and Federal Governments until around 2003/2005….Benue Cement, Cement Company of Northern Nigeria etc. They produced NOTHING. Nkalagu Cement that is still controlled by Ebonyi State government still produces NOTHING.

          Nigerians, ordinary citizens, are also shareholders in Dangote Cement, Ashaka, BUA and others. In fact I’m a shareholder in cement companies. What’s your problem?

          The Lagos Stock Exchange is open, YOU can also buy shares and enjoy obscene profits.

          Ohhhhh, YOU are now criticizing protectionist policy? That’s Industrial Policy so why are you opposed to that?

          Your favorite nation CHINA is a big protectionist.

          What’s the matter?!?


          • FrNinja

            A tonne of cement in Nigeria TODAY costs $160, in the USA $111, in China $50, in Turkey $60, in India $92, in South Africa $94. That is the outcome of over 10 years of Nigeria’s cement import substitution policy and evidence of your illusionary “falling prices”.

            Fact is that the minute the Nigerian government banned imports it gave Dangote, Lafarge, Bua an opportunity for oligopoly pricing and profits and they are making a meal of it.

            Now regarding industrial policy, I ask what has been gained from cement import substitution? Are there lots more jobs vs imports? NO. Are there new technology discovered ? NO. The only benefit of local cement production is saving on forex. But then you ask why pay double for something that can be bought cheaper outside the country? To put it another way. We are saving $1 dollar and expending $2 equivalent buying it locally. Not good value for money.

          • William Norris

            Come my fellow, YOU have repeatedly argued in favor of PROTECTIONIST industrial policy. So do you want government to stop protecting the cement industry and import cheaper products from China?

            WHAT DO YOU WANT?

            You’re always using the USA as an example.

            Healthcare prices in the USA are the highest in the world. American and British citizens travel to India and Costa Rica to get surgery at a cost that is 2% of what they would pay in their hokme countries…..or they simply can’t get due to wait lists in the UK NHS.

            The high prices of medical care sustain good jobs like nursing and profits in pharmaceutical research and manufacturing.

            High cement prices sustain jobs and profits in the Nigerian cement industry.


          • FrNinja

            Norris I am pointing out the fallacies in your cement free market thesis. I am all for protectionism that creates jobs and improves skills. Dangotes contribution to cement is turning phd holders into truck drivers.

          • William Norris

            At least Dangote is creating jobs that are sorely needed in Nigeria.

            You personally PROFITED from highly exploitative prices charged by MTN. Your company MTN charged Nigerians 50,000 for simcards that sell for 200 today. That’s OBSCENE PROFITEERING.

            Please go buy some shares in Dangote Cement and stop all this typical Nigerian “educated” thinking.

            It helps no one.

            I’m really over all this, you’re confused. Go and invest money like you did in MTN and let’s see you give away your profits for free.

            WHAT did you do with your MTN profits from 50,000 simcard? If you didn’t give it to charity all your socialist sloganeering is so much HYPOCRISY.

            That’s ALL I have to say to you. Your HYPOCRISY is sooooo clear…..Pretend Predator Socialist.

          • FrNinja

            Get it right. There is no free competitive market for cement in nigeria. If there were no controls I would be able to land a bag of cement at apapa or port harcourt for 1,800 naira per bag.

          • William Norris

            Cement scarcity has been banished in Nigeria and the DOMESTIC MARKET is competitive. It was accomplished by deliberate government policy sustained over 15 years.

            Go and invest money in cement like you did in MTN and let’s see you give away your profits for free.

            WHAT did you do with your MTN profits from 50,000 simcard? If you didn’t give it to charity all your saintly socialist sloganeering is so much HYPOCRISY.

            That’s ALL I have to say to you. Your HYPOCRISY is sooooo clear…..Pretend Predator Socialist.

        • William Norris

          Please go buy some shares in Dangote Cement and stop all this typical Nigerian “educated” thinking.
          It helps no one.

          I’m really over all this, you’re confused. Go and invest money like you did in MTN and let’s see you give away your profits for free.

          WHAT did you do with your MTN profits from 50,000 simcard? If you didn’t give it to charity all your socialist sloganeering is so much HYPOCRISY

  • vic

    mr emefiele, then why is naira not strengthening?? with you running six parallel exchange rates naira is doomed so long as you are the cbn governor.

    emefiale, you are a forex fraudster and a financial criminal in the cbn. one day you will be in kuje prison for your financial atrocities. you are just a forex house boy for your master buhari.

    • William Norris

      CBN policy, especially on forex, is dictated from Aso Rock. It has always been so, but under PDP the control was flexible.

      The current government has a dictatorial President who controls CBN policy by his own whims. You only have to research and read his pronouncements over the past 3 years to see the warning signs and then manifestation.

      Forex controls have undermined everything productive in Nigeria.

      • vic

        you nailed it 100% but nigerians are naive and gullible. they will still be running to vote for clueless buhari who does not know what his corrupt cabal is doing under his own shadows.

        • Pluti

          Cos Nigerians knew the atrocities under PDP and will be scared to go back to PDP. The painful thing is that PDP is still failing to clean his house. Imagine great party as PDP having Fayose subscribing to run as a president? It tells a lot… Citizens are in a difficult position of choice

          • vic

            you are right again but hopefully nearer to 2019 election some honest person will emerge.

            we shall wait and see the emerging situation to decide who to vote for.

  • Daniel Obior

    The worst days are indeed behind us. Thanks to increased oil price and the cessation of hostilities by the Niger Delta militants. These factors have resulted in increased revenue, which has brought the country out of recession. The improved position has little or nothing to do with the policies or the lack of them, of this incompetent administration. The administration has continued to remain the failure that it has always been.

    • Omooba Adekunle Orafidiya

      You nailed it, bro. We exited recession not because of any deliberate or conscious effort/endeavour as Emefiele claimed in his self-promoting lecture. The current APC Administration headed by illiterate certificate forger and perjurer Muhammadu Buhari remains an orchestrated disaster, a choreographed catastrophe and an unmitigated calamity

    • vic


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