Early Outline of the Permutations for 2027

Postscript by Waziri Adio

There was an unusual spike in the tempo of political skirmishes last week, with pointed accusations by leading opposition figures and prompt rebuttals by those speaking for the ruling party. It was not accidental, nor is it meant to be episodic. It is safe to expect a higher and more sustained tempo from now on. Beyond the conference and the arrests that served as a platform and the trigger for the exchanges, there has been a fervent quest, barely beneath the radar, by key opposition and displaced politicians to form or inhabit a formidable electoral machine ahead of the next presidential election. Those on the other side are aware of the open and subterranean moves, and seem ready. Both sides know what they are doing. For all intents and purposes, the battle for 2027 has started.

The quest for an early realignment of political forces ahead of 2027 is driven by a number of factors.

One, the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu, is perceived as electorally vulnerable. He came to power with the slimmest electoral margin in the Fourth Republic; and in office, he has not done much to broaden his base or appeal. His signature policies, necessary as they are, have translated to the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, with most average Nigerians struggling to feed themselves and meet other basic needs. He has alienated some of the key politicians who helped him to secure significant votes outside of his zone or who worked to take votes away from his opponents, and who thus swung the electoral calculus in his favour. His key appointments have been unabashedly sectional and his government is straining to escape the provincial tag. This combination—of afflicted populace and disaffected politicians—suggests that if presidential election were to hold today, the incumbent president might struggle to hold on to more than the South West, his home base.

Two, the consensus is that even the most vulnerable incumbent president in a democracy such as ours can only be effectively challenged by a strong and united opposition party (not just by a strong individual). At the moment, the opposition is anything but strong or united. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is in disarray. Despite remaining the main opposition party on account of its size and spread, PDP is a sorry shadow of the dominant party that ruled for 16 years. PDP has not really got used to how to survive without power, and most serious politicians within its fold are just marking time. Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) are either going through it too or lack the heft required.

Candidate Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the candidates of the three leading opposition parties when he was not an incumbent and when some within his own party, including in the presidency, reportedly worked actively to prevent his emergence as a candidate, then as the president. Of course, the fractured opposition also helped him with their divided votes that ensured that Tinubu clinched the presidency with just 36.61% of the total votes cast, the lowest winning margin since 1999. Tinubu’s share of votes in 2023 was only comparable to the 33.77% that Alhaji Shehu Shagari polled to win the 1979 presidential election, Nigeria’s first presidential poll and the most competitive till date.

Incumbent Tinubu, even with his evident vulnerabilities, is in a stronger position than Candidate Tinubu of 2023. Yes, his time in office has taken away from his mystique. But incumbency has also enhanced his electoral sinew. He remains the leading political strategist of his generation and he is unlikely to be shy in leveraging available apparatuses of the state to his advantage. Those banding to take him on are not naïve enough to think this is a task they can undertake successfully without serious preparation.

Three, adequate time is needed to form a new political party or get a critical mass of politicians to migrate to a chosen platform, to jump all the hoops that the ruling party and state institutions will definitely put on the paths of such a party, and to become a viable and credible alternative to Nigerian voters and public. There is enough lesson in the history APC to support the three factors identified. PDP became electorally vulnerable as early 2003 but it wobbled and fumbled through three electoral cycles. Candidate Muhammadu Buhari posed a great challenge to PDP in 2003, 2007 and 2011 but despite his wide following among the commoners of the core north, his appeal did not cross over to the south until 2015 when he became the candidate of APC, a coalition of three legacy parties and factions from two others. Also, APC was formed in February 2013, and thus had enough time to position itself as a robust counterweight to the ruling PDP.

In power, APC itself has been vulnerable since 2019, but it has managed to hang on largely because of incumbency and because of the state and the contradictions of the opposition.  The reckoning now is that for the opposition to stand a chance in 2027, it has to do to APC what APC did to PDP between 2013 and 2015. To be sure, there might be other paths to opposition victory, including the possibility of an individual with broad electoral appeal standing and running alone. But given the sectional nature of Nigerian politics and the arithmetic of our elections (including the spread requirement), it seems assembling a cross-sectional coalition is still the surest bet to unseat an incumbent president.

However, the quest for a mega and viable opposition party will not be a cakewalk. The first stumbling block will be competing ambitions. The easiest part is to assemble a coalition. The fact that there are no permanent enemies but permanent interests will make that possible.  The hard part is getting everyone in the coalition, including presidential hopefuls, to line up behind and work for the eventual presidential candidate. While there are enough positions to go round, there is only spot at the top, and there are many eyeing the top ticket. It is clear that both Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr. Peter Obi will run for presidency in 2027. It is not unlikely that Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will run too. There are others thinking seriously of running too.

Will any of these potential candidates step down for the others? Will Atiku step down for, say, Obi? Or will Obi agree to step down or be Atiku’s running mate again like he was in 2019? With Obi’s record-breaking showing in 2023, what will be his incentive not to run or to be a running mate? Will Kwankwaso align with either of the two or agree to be Obi’s running mate? There is a strong suspicion that the quest for a mega party is actually the project of one of these politicians. If this is what it turns out to be, will the others remain loyal party people or will they seek their fortunes elsewhere or stay in and do antiparty? And if just one of them moves to contest elsewhere, how electorally potent can the mega party be?

A second hurdle will be how the eventual candidate fits the bill of the unwritten but salient code on power rotation between the north and the south. Will the politicians be comfortable with and able to sell power returning to the north after one term in the south? Or can the politicians and the populace set aside the north-south arrangement, even if temporarily?

Will the coalition be able to find a southern candidate who will agree to do, or can do, only one term? And can any politician that is not term-barred as president be held to such agreement? One name that is making the round in this respect is former President Goodluck Jonathan since he can’t do only more than a term. With the outcome of the 2024 elections in Ghana and the US, he is likely to fancy his chances. But will he run? And if he does, can he stop Obi from contesting? If both Jonathan and Obi run, what does that do to the bloc votes from the South-East and the South-South? 

The third hurdle will be capacity of the mega opposition to sell itself to Nigerians as a credible alternative. As I mentioned at the conference last week, Nigerians are not likely to take seriously a band of politicians asking for power just because they have lost out or because they have become internally displaced politicians (IDPs). I listened with profound amazement to people who were in government at the highest levels till 18 months ago criticising the same state institutions they supervised, waxing poetic about Nigeria’s abysmal governance and development deficits and calling on Nigerians to save their democracy. The planned mega party cannot be viable and credible if it is just a grievance platform designed for some politicians to return to reckoning. What alternative vision of society, of politics, and of governance are the same-old, same-old politicians offering? What lessons have they learned from their well-rewarded involvement in public life in the past 25 years and how do they plan to make amends?

APC’s mandarins are definitely keeping a close eye on all the moves in the opposition camp. And it is conceivable that some of the key opposition figures are APC’s moles. It is the way of politics. The ruling party will remain hopeful, even confident, that the mega party plan will fall apart. The odds that it will not work are high. But politics is the art of the possible. And politicians, including our politicians, can put aside their differences and ambitions, even if temporarily, to advance a common goal or to face a common enemy. This was what the folks that formed APC did in 2013 to 2015. If APC could do it, others can too.

Does it mean that it is over for Tinubu in 2027 if such a coalition is formed? Not necessarily. And does it also mean that if no such coalition is formed, then Tinubu automatically returns in 2027? Not necessarily too. We are still at least two years away from the next election. Needless to say, a day is a long time in politics. A lot will depend on what happens at different levels on both sides and in the larger society between now and then.

With or without a coalition, an incumbent can be defeated in Nigeria if we get to a situation where a critical mass of Nigerians is ready to vote for anyone else but the incumbent. That was what happened in 2015. If the cost-of-living crisis continues, irrespective of improvement in macro-economic indicators, we may get to that situation. If Nigerians continue to struggle with high costs of food and other essentials, they are likely to want out, would probably overlook the primordial sentiments that mostly define our elections and likely defy attempts to buy or intimidate them.

But if prices stabilise this year and next, and Nigerians begin to see tangible improvement in their material conditions (even if not back to pre-2023 levels), they may be hesitant in taking a gamble with someone else. A sizeable number of Nigerians may be persuaded that the present shocks are part of the pains of reforms and may be open to giving the president the chance to see his reforms to a logical end. Tinubu may also be favoured by the inability of the opposition to pick a credible or acceptable alternative. For example, the northern elites and voters may just reconcile themselves with another four years of Tinubu than with a probable eight years for another southerner. Political calculations are sometimes made at such margins.

Tinubu is not without agency in this matter. He has ample time to make course correction: become less sectional in his appointments, accommodate individuals and zones that he has alienated, drop the dead-weights in his cabinet, and act more promptly and decisively in areas that affect the generality of Nigerians. He also has enough time to undermine the opposition, sow discord in their ranks and poach some of their leading lights.  

Naturally, it is way too early to say how things will pan out for the incumbent and the probable challengers. Ordinarily too, we shouldn’t be talking about next election until at least 2026 in the lead up to party primaries. But here we are, and it is what it is. It is going to be a long electioneering period this time around, with plenty of twists and turns. There will be distractions, unfortunately. And there will be an abundance of opportunistic moves on both sides of the divide. Welcome, unofficially, to the 2027 election cycle.