How Much Value is Dogara Adding to PDP?

2023 CAMPAIGN WATCH

Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara has moved again. This time around, he has moved from the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, to the opposition People’s Democratic Party, PDP. It could be recalled that Dogara had left the same PDP to APC in 2020 and now, he is back in the PDP. In fact, then Caretaker Chairman of the APC and governor of Yobe State, Mai Mala Buni, had taken Dogara to meet President Muhammadu Buhari who received Dogara back to the APC.

 When Dogara moved then and was sighted at the presidential villa with Buni, and many expressed surprise to see the former Speaker at the Villa, Buni had this to say: “They should not be surprised because the former Speaker is a member of the APC, and it is because the reason why he left the APC is no more there.”
 These movements perhaps have made Dogara, arguably, the most travelled politician across parties. And from all indications, it seems Dogara would be in the PDP at least, till after the coming general election early next year. 

Dogara’s return to the PDP this time is not unconnected with his losing out in the race for the vice-presidential ticket of the APC. Himself and Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, had thought that the ticket would go to either of them being northern Christians and going by the expected need to balance the religious equation concerning the offices of the President and that of the Vice President.  They expected that the presidential candidate of the APC, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would pick a northern Christian. But Tinubu surprised them both when he picked former governor of Borno State, Kashim Shettima, a northern Muslim. 

Dogara, who is the leader of the Northern Elders’ Consultative Forum, NECF, had expressed deep opposition to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC. And apart from Dogara joining the PDP, the Forum has also endorsed the candidate of the PDP and former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar and the reason was the “unfortunate self-inflicted divisive same-faith-ticket which cannot guarantee the desired peace, unity and cohesion in Nigeria, a decision that has been kicked against by a huge population of Nigerians”,  stated  the Forum. 

Shortly after moving to the PDP, the Director-General of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council and current governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, announced the appointment of Dogara as a member of the Council. 
“The leadership of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council wishes to formally announce that Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara has been appointed as a member of the Presidential Campaign Council with immediate effect. This is part of our continuous effect in joining hands with our presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to recover our great country, Nigeria”, stated the council.

The question now is this: what value is Dogara bringing to Atiku’s campaign and presidential bid? It is obvious that his decision to join the opposition PDP was due to the fact that he lost out in the race for the vice-presidential ticket of the ruling APC. Meanwhile, he had left the same PDP for APC in 2020 when he was being politically emasculated by the governor of his native Bauchi State and former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Mallam Bala Mohammed. Perhaps, he has closed ranks with Mohammed now as the latter is also fully involved in the PDP presidential campaigns. 
Just as Dogara moved to the APC, Babachir Lawal, former SGF, has refused,  preferring instead to support  the Labour Party and has publicly thrown his weight behind Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the party. 

In fairness, the Christian population in the North actually sees both Dogara and Lawal as representing their interest in the political equation in the country. And from all indications, Dogara played some role in the northern Christian groups throwing their weight behind Atiku. And he was also instrumental in the Northern Elders’ Consultative Forum, NECF, publicly endorsing Atiku. It remains to be seen if these moves would translate into votes for the former Vice President. But it won’t be out of place to say that Dogara joining the Atiku camp was like catching a big political fish.

APC’s War on the Media and BVAS

It is no news that the presidential campaign train of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has had more issues to deal with and more questions to answer than actually selling the candidacy of its standard-bearer, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu to voters. From the negative fallout of his outing at Chatham House in London to very embarrassing gaffes when speaking, the explained issue of drug proceeds forfeiture in the United States and unanswered questions concerning his background and academic qualifications, Tinubu and his handlers seem to have their hands full. 

And matters have not been helped by the cantankerous approach of his handlers to issues and anyone who disagrees with their principal. Even on social media, many of their online supporters usually launch verbal and cyber-attacks on anyone who dares to raise issues or asks critical questions concerning some of the unresolved issues surrounding the personality of the former Lagos State governor. In fact, Tinubu’s supporters seem to have learnt the bullying tactic from Buhari’s in 2015. Now, they   quickly tag anyone who criticises Tinubu as a ‘hater’. 

The peak of this was the recent spat between the spokesmen of the Tinubu Presidential Campaign Organisation, Bayo Onanuga, who is a former Editor-in-Chief of THE NEWS magazine along with one-time Commissioner for Information and Strategy when Tinubu was governor of Lagos State, Dele Alake, and the Board of Editors of THISDAY Newspapers on the other hand. THISDAY had accused the duo and by extension the APC presidential campaign team of trying to muzzle the press and suppress free speech even when their man was not yet the President. THISDAY had accused the duo of penning series of press releases to denigrate the newspaper since the publication of a story, on November 22, on the death of one Mueez Adegboyega Akande, a Tinubu associate mentioned as being involved, by the US authorities, in a drug trafficking investigation 30 years ago. 

THISDAY claimed that the attacks intensified since that publication and the newspaper claimed that the report introduced the person that died as Mueez but included a condolence message from the Lagos State governor to the family of Dr. Kolapo Akande.
“Did THISDAY mix up the identity (of two brothers?) We needed to be sure before issuing an apology. We needed to hear from the family. To date, we have not heard from the family. The fact is that mistakes in reporting the death of someone who may not have died is not unusual in the media. “But then a quick statement from the family of the person so reported having died, as happened when the media mistakenly reported the death of the late nationalist and past President, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, in the ‘90s, would have quickly laid the matter to rest,” the newspaper wrote in the statement. 

It claimed that what Tinubu handlers wanted was a pliable media that would not be asking questions and who would be forced to succumb to blackmail just as the newspaper also disclosed that pressure had been mounted on the management to remove some of its top editorial staff, both in the newspaper and the sister television station. 

The question is this: why the intolerance? Why the casting of aspersions on the personalities of anyone or group that dares to ask questions? Tokunbo Peters, a public affairs analyst based in Abeokuta wrote in his Facebook page that it is when an aspirant to a political office has so much to hide that he or she resorts to hostile approach when put on the spot. 

For instance, the ruling APC has various times expressed its opposition to electronic transmission of election results and use of biometrics. In fact, the National Chairman of the party and former governor of Nasarawa State, Senator Adamu Abdullahi, once said the nation was not ripe for electronic transmission of results and Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, even as the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has repeatedly said it was more than ready. 
Speaking when a delegation of the Commonwealth visited the national secretariat of the ruling party late last month, Adamu still touched on the issue.

“To transmit results, every part of the nation Nigeria I’m not sure that the network covers it. I know that even in parts of Abuja, there is no network and we have from now till February, when in substantial parts of the country there is no electricity. INEC must assure us 100 percent that as and when due in transmitting results, they are ready, because they spoke about recharging batteries but we had in previous elections, when it says it can’t recharge.”
Is APC afraid of electronic transmission of election results? Perhaps it is.

Obi and the South-East Conundrum

In the last two weeks, the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, in various parts of the South-east have come under serious attacks with properties worth tens of millions of naira destroyed and lives lost. Just last Monday, a policeman lost his life when gunmen attacked INEC office in Owerri, the Imo State capital. Policemen attached to the office reportedly killed three of the attackers. During the latest attack, the gunmen were said to have thrown an Improvised Explosive Device into the INEC facility, which destroyed several offices and vehicles parked on the premises.

This latest attack came less than one week after some gunmen attacked another INEC office in the Oru West Local Government Area of the same state, making it the eighth attack on the commission’s facilities within the last four months across the country, especially in the South-east. It should be recalled that in May 2021, a building belonging to the INEC was also set ablaze in the state. This excludes the attack at its Ahiazu Mbaise LGA office in the same month.
Some months back, the INEC offices in Udenu and Igboeze South Local Government Areas of Enugu State were attacked by gunmen/hoodlums, who vandalised the commission’s facilities.

Again, in September 2021, the INEC office in Awgu Local Government Area of the state was set on fire by some persons. In July 2022, some suspected arsonists also destroyed the commission’s office in the Igbo-Eze North Local Government Area of the state.
In May 2021, two offices of the INEC were set on fire by gunmen in Ebonyi State. These were in Izzi and Ezza North local government areas of the state. Within a month, the INEC office in Ebonyi Local Government Area office of the state was also razed down by gunmen. Just last month, there was another attack on the commission’s office in Izzi Local Government Area of the state.

Worried that these attacks could affect the conduct of the 2023 general election,  Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the INEC chairman, at a meeting with stakeholders in Lagos last week lamented that the electoral body had lost so many of its facilities.
Beyond the INEC Chairman’s worry is the fact that since 1999, at no time has a candidate from the South-east gained the kind of national appeal like Peter Obi. In fact, among the young voting population, Obi has assumed a status of a cult hero with many of them putting down their monies to run his campaign. However, if Obi is to make any headway in the 2023 presidential election as the candidate of the Labour Party, then he has to secure the block vote from the South-east. And that is why he must be deeply worried by attacks on INEC facilities in the region and the ‘no election campaign’ being waged by the Eastern Security Network, ESN, who many believe are behind these attacks. 

Ironically, the Independent People of Biafra, IPOB, has come out to vehemently claim it is not behind these attacks which also go with the weekly sit-at-home order from the ESN. This has led to the death of many innocent people. For instance, just last week, Prince Iheme, the elder brother of Osita Iheme, a renowned actor popularly known as ‘Pawpaw’ was gunned down by some gunmen enforcing the sit-at-home order. 
And in a recent video that went viral on social media, gun-wielding men were seen moving around chanting that there would not be elections in the South-east region and also there won’t be Christmas unless Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the IPOB, was released from detention. 

No matter how well Obi is accepted outside of Igboland, it will never do his ambition any good if violence remains the order of the day and the campaign against the election is sustained such that people are intimidated not to come out to vote on election day in the south-east. 
Perhaps, it is high time Obi engaged critical stakeholders or perhaps, he does not want to offend the ESN or the IPOB. Either way, he will lose out if this is not nipped in the bud.