With the commencement of campaigns for the 2023 elections by political parties, Chuks Okocha examines the critical issues that will shape the forthcoming polls
Nigeria appears to be on another critical juncture – preparing to ascend another transition of power, a hurdle that requires more rigorous and preparedness. But like every other elections season, the stakes are high; tension abounds and uncertainty is also in abundance. It is this uncertainty that has now given rise to concerns and worries whether the 2023 presidential election will be conducted smoothly.
From the political parties, electoral umpire – the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) – security agencies, voters and observers, not much can guarantee that there is an existing pathway to a peaceful and credible presidential election.
From tribal, religion, violence, insecurity, abuse of electoral processes by INEC staff, political intimidation and the challenges of logistics, the signposts and indicators are ripe with unwavering tide of danger and unease.
To many, these are the critical issues that may make or mar Nigeria’s 2023 presidential race. Given past experiences and trajectories, it is not certain if Africa’s biggest democracy can overcome those potential obstacles – laying in-wait for the votes count. But when many remember that same anxieties and fears had been expressed during previous election cycles and nothing sinister happened, they resolved to keep their fingers crossed.
In view of the concerns thus far, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), a West African think-tank in a report highlighted the possible hurdles that may jeopardise the 2023 presidential election.
CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, stressed that the prevailing challenges at hand could upturn Nigeria’s chances of conducting smooth and credible polls, in a nation, still struggling to consolidate democratic governance. Hassan explained that the issues that will shape the 2023 presidential election are enormous and varies, describing the most visible as, “an unprecedented epidemic of insecurity.”
In the CDD report, code-named: ‘2023 Elections: SWOT Analysis,’ the body noted the other critical issues that may likely shape the 2023 presidential race. It contended that there are worries about covering the 176,846 polling units, which would compel the recruitment and training of close to 1.5 million poll and security officials. This is about four times the size of the Nigerian military.
Beyond these concerns, there are fears that logistics challenges may be deliberately orchestrated for purposes of voters suppression and undermining voters’ democratic rights to elect a president in 2023. CDD is also worried that “at the same time, the secessionist agitations in the South-east could reduce turnout, which may not favour either the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi or Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar.”
The CDD report also stressed that “money will continue to play a huge role in determining who emerges the winner if the presidential primaries and recent gubernatorial elections offer any lesson.”
On how sentiments would influence the presidential poll, CDD added that “religion, ethnicity, and money politics would shape the people’s choice among the three major candidates – Atiku of the PDP, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party’s Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
For instance, the emergence of Atiku has not been received in good light the South and many states in the North-central. Voters in those four regions are irked and vexed by the fact that, Atiku a Fulani Muslim, is rooting to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, also a Fulani Muslim, after eight years in office in a country of 240 tribes.
“Religion is likely to feature prominently in debates following the APC’s decision to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Renewed youth engagement in politics, a feature of the voter registration period, could also be transformative and favour Obi,” the CDD report maintained.
Again, many feared that the BVAS may be manipulated to suppress votes or give one of the candidates an undue advantage. At the moment, BVAS has been tested only in the South without experimenting the BVAS in the North. Many worry that BVAS may be abandoned in the North and deployed in the South which will give Atiku or Tinubu double advantage. It is feared that there may be a repeat of what happened at the 2015 presidential election, where Card Readers worked in the South but could not work in the North, where voting was done manually to give candidate Buhari an advantage.
Also speaking, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, a socio-political think-tank, Dr. Sam Amadi explained that many factors would shape the 2023 presidential election.
According to Amadi, “many issues will affect the 2023 presidential election. One of them is the collapsed economic and social life of Nigerians. The failure of the APC government has raised the importance of good leadership. The #EndSARS movement has mutated into a political movement and will impact on the outcome of the election. We do not know the extent of the impact.
“Another factor is religion. The Muslim-Muslim ticket debate will affect voting. In south and central Nigeria, many Christian will reject the APC ticket because of its lack of religious diversity. The unknown is how much it can mobilise votes of Muslims for the ticket in the North. Ethnicity may not be such a strong factor. The South-west seems poised to share votes between the old and the new; between the status quo and the future. Ethnicity may improve voter enthusiasm in South-east where the candidate of the Labour Party hails from. But it may be displaced by religion and social and economic issues,” Amadi observed
The Abuja School Director further explained that “demographic changes will affect the result. We will see rural-urban divide. It is expected that whereas the rural electorates may remain attached to the status quo parties, we will see significant urban shifts. The winner of the election will be the person who takes much of those urban voters who have in the past not been keen to participate in presidential election.”
Beyond these permutations of what would shape the 2023 presidential race and other significant changes that may occurr in the polls, it is almost certain that the tension and apprehension will grow by the day as the February 2023 presidential election draws nearer. The fear of politicians wanting to undermine the election is high, according local peculiarities. In the South-east and Lagos State for example, there are fears that party leaders in APC and PDP may want to suppress Peter Obi’s votes in those locations, seen as his strong hold.
The issues and threats of Boko Haram terrorists, ibanditry and kidnapping in the North-west, North-east in places like Borno, Adamawa, Niger, Kaduna, Plateau States are critical as well. Still, there is the concern of INEC officials, top ranking personnel and staff; security agencies and their personnel compromising the electoral process.
In all, the stakes are high: the economy is on a free-fall; the Naira is gyrating, poverty has continued to climb restlessly, life has become brutish and joblessness has fiercely increased more devil advocates so much that, the 2023 presidential election comes with great risks depending how it is conducted.
Worst still, the current socio-economic crisis and the prevailing dystopia should compel concrete steps that will ensure credible and rancour-free presidential race in its outcome.
If history is our guide, the pathway to a saner 2023 presidential election may be tortuous, nebulous and daunting; but the onus to make the polls credible rest with Nigerian democratic institutions – INEC, parties, voters and state agencies. It is a fight between vested interests and the people; urban and rural; tribal gangs and patriots. It is a ritual that all the stakes are staked for political power.
Will the voters triumph or will power mongers have a field day? Time will tell.
