The Obi Effect!

The Obi Effect!

THE ALTERNATIVE

By Reno Omokri

The homecoming of Atiku Abubakar to Yola and Jada on Monday, August 15, 2022, the PDP fitness rally that took place in Calabar, Thursday, August 25, and the visit by Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to Bauchi on Wednesday, August 24, all boasted crowds by far larger than anything Peter Obi and his Obidients have ever pulled in all their so-called one-million man marches. And campaigns have not even started yet.

As the September 28 official campaign take off date approaches, Nigerians will begin to see the actual offline capacity of the various political parties and their Presidential candidates.

Although it is now obvious to many, by then, the Bradley Effect that has been driving the Peter Obi hysteria will become obvious to his horde of supporters.

The Bradley Effect is a political phenomenon that originated in 1982, after Los Angeles mayor, Tom Bradley, an African American and democrat, woefully lost the California gubernatorial election to the then California attorney general, George Deukmejian, a White Anglo-Saxon.

The reason Mayor Tom Bradley’s defeat was so remarkable was because he won every poll conducted by the leading pollsters of the day, and was the bookmakers’ favourite to win the election.

In fact, a day after Election Day, the San Francisco Chronicle ran a headline declaring “Bradley Win Projected.” Alas, it was never to be.

The Bradley Effect was blamed on overwhelming reliance on polling, and a blatant disregard for political realities and time-tested campaign techniques.

It is said that history does not repeat itself, rather, men repeat history and blame history, because it is an inanimate thing.

I will not be surprised if after the February 25, 2023 Nigerian Presidential election, Nigeria adds a new word to its political lexicon -The Obi effect.

What is the Obi Effect? Simple: Overwhelming reliance on social media, and a blatant disregard for political realities and time-tested campaign techniques.

And the thing about Peter Obi and his Obidients is that they cannot be counselled. They suffer from the ‘smartest man in the room complex’. Though they have very little political experience, they will not listen to those that do, preferring to lecture them instead.

For instance, when you ask them their path to victory, they begin spinning fantastic tales about how they will win in the Southeast, South-South, Lagos, and the Middle-Belt.

And when you try to bring up history, they tell you to hell with history. Are they not aware that the best predictor of the future is the past?

Peter Obi is actually an excellent candidate, but he is not a politician. Right now, he is like a child who has found a puppy and now he is dapper (to borrow from the words of the late Eric Lynn Wright, better known as Eazy-E).

The truth is that the biggest beneficiary of Peter Obi’s Presidential race is Tinubu, not Obidients. Peter will not affect APC’s votes. The votes he will likely get are votes that would have naturally gone to PDP, including in the Southeast, some non-Yoruba Lagos votes, a chunk of Benue votes, and a few votes in peripheral states.

If the Peoples Democratic Party is not careful, Peter Obi will be to us what Ross Perot was to President George H W Bush. Bush seemed set for reelection in 1992, until the billionaire, Ross Perot, a fellow Texan, ran as an independent, and split the Republican vote, handing Bill Clinton a stunning victory.

This is because Obi’s political and economic philosophies are almost a facsimile of the Peoples Democratic Party’s founding principles. This means that he is appealing to Peoples Democratic Party voters, not All Progressives Congress voters.

Other than states which became opportunistically All Progressives Congress (e.g. Imo and Ebonyi), Obi cannot pull up to 100,000 votes in any core All Progressives Congress state, with the exception of Lagos.

The inevitable conclusion is that the votes he will be getting are going to come from Peoples Democratic Party bastion states. And of course, certain persons, who have a hidden agenda, have convinced Peter Obi that he can win, and that hope has become hysteria.

Peter Obi is not an Igbo candidate. However, he is of Igbo origin. And as Chinua Achebe said in his seminal work, Things Fall Apart:

“It’s true that a child belongs to its father. But when a father beats his child, it seeks sympathy in its mother’s hut. A man belongs to his fatherland when things are good and life is sweet. But when there is sorrow and bitterness, he finds refuge in his motherland.”

Nigeria is Peter Obi’s father. But his mother is Ndi’Igbo. And if we are to be honest, Peter Obi’s father has been very abusive and unjust to his mother. And now that the mother has the chance to be the favourite wife, she will fight tooth and nail to secure it.

That is the hysteria which has blinded the eyes of the core Obidients. That uncontrollable emotion makes them blind to a lot of things. One of which is that the Yoruba have NEVER voted for a non-Yoruba when a Yoruba is in the race. It does not matter whether or not they like the person.

Another is that the Hausa and Fulani have only ever voted for a Muslim, whether he be from the North or South. You might raise the issue of Jonathan. I was one of the strategists behind President Jonathan’s 2011 victory and we lost in the North. What we were looking for was 25%, which we got in 2011, but could not get in 2015. In fact, we got less than 20% in Kano, Bauchi, and Yobe in 2011.

And no core Northern Governor will risk his political future for a ticket that is seen by Northern masses, rightly or wrongly, to be against their core interests. As extremely popular as he was, Kwankwaso tried it in 2003. Go and ask him what happened to him.

Unknown to the public, Peter Obi is a master of propaganda. The main Obidient on Twitter, who poses as a light-skinned girl, is actually an IPOB agent in Abuja. I challenge her (him) to sue me. Mike Ozekhome is my lawyer. I will unmask him with IP tracing. 

Tinubu is a master tactician. He knows Peter Obi cannot win. And he knows that very, very little of Peter’s votes, if any at all, will come from him. He is aware that Peter is eating into the PDP’s votes. So, he will promote Obi’s candidacy through proxies. Because that is one of his paths to victory! All he would ask from his Southeast foot soldiers is that they should get him 25% of the votes in at least 2 Southeastern states. And he will get it in Imo and Ebonyi, by hook or by crook!

Tinubu may not know how to articulate. But he knows how to calculate. One of the most difficult jobs on Earth is to run a drug cartel.  Tinubu did it and only got a slap on the wrist from the FBI. He is tactical. Anyone who underestimated him is not wise. Not wise at all.

In conclusion, I would counsel Nigerians not to get carried away. 2023 is a bipolar election. A two-horse race. As long as God spares their lives, one of either Waziri Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu will be President. My money is on Atiku. He is the best candidate. And the arithmetic favours him. It is all a matter of mathematics.

There are 176,846 polling units in Nigeria and 96.2 million registered voters. Of these polling units, 93,191 are in Northern Nigeria, while 83,655 are in Southern Nigeria. The Northwest has the most polling units with 41,671, and 22.67 million registered voters, closely followed by the Southwest with 34,808, and 18.3 million registered voters.

Then the North-Central has 27, 514 polling units, and 15.68 million registered voters. The South-South is next with 27, 126 polling units and 15.3 million voters. The Northeast has 24,006 polling units and 12.8 million registered voters. While the Southeast has 21,631 polling units and 11.49 million registered voters.

These are facts that will determine 2023, not insults, abuse and threats! To those who would like to see crowds, be patient. Wait until after September 28., 2022. The crowds you will see will sift those who make noise from those who make news. There is no polling unit on social media. So, if you like, you can catch your cruise and win your election there!

Reno’s Nuggets

Dear men,

Avoid red meat

Eat organic

Eat fresh

Reduce sugar intake

Drink only water. Forget beer (drinking beer is NOT a sin)

Avoid or reduce bread consumption

Reduce your salt intake

Eat unripe plantain once a week

Avoid any food that has been artificially dyed

Walk 10,000 steps a day

If after doing these, your WIFE is not extraordinarily happy in a certain room, stop following me!

#RenosNuggets #FreeLeahSharibu

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