James Emejo writes that the National Bureau of Statistics must do more to contribute to macroeconomic stability and good governance through the timely production and publication of key unemployment data to aid policymaking and development
The crucial role of statistics in supporting good decision making in both the public and private sector cannot be over-emphasised especially in developing economies like Nigeria, which is struggling with growth.
The unemployment or jobs statistics remained one of the crucial macroeconomic parameters alongside inflation, which is used to determine the health of an economy.
Essentially, the unemployment rate of a country has become a big deal as it helps the citizens to among other things measure the performance of the economy, and hold politicians and policymakers accountable for their promises.
In Nigeria where unemployment remains a great challenge, politicians have often used it as bait during election campaigns, promising to create a certain number of opportunities to absorb the jobless population into gainful activities.
Thus, the timely publication of such a key indicator helps to measure their performances.
As a closely watched economic indicator, the unemployment rate attracts a lot of media attention, especially during recessions and challenging economic times. This is because unemployment, which is essentially, the level and persistence of the factors of unemployment have wide-ranging impacts across the broader economy.
Data aggregator
In Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) remains the apex agency of the federal government responsible for collecting, compiling, analysing, interpreting, publishing and disseminating statistical information relating to the socio-economic life and conditions of Nigerians.
In line with its statutory mandate to provide government and policymakers with reliable and timely information, the bureau routinely computes and disseminates the labour force statistics generated from a nationwide socio-economic survey.
Although the unemployment data had been designed to be published quarterly, the last survey conducted was in the fourth quarter of 2020.
The report ,which is still being cited as current, despite the time lapse, puts Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 33.3 per cent compared to 27.1 per cent in Q2 2020.
This implied that 23.18 million persons of the country’s labour force either did nothing or worked for less than 20 hours a week, making them unemployed by the country’s definition of unemployment.
It further indicated that there was an additional 1.42 million persons added to the country’s unemployment portfolio when compared to 21.77 million unemployed persons in Q2.
However, the failure of the agency to keep up with the timely publication of the critical unemployment data has called for concern especially given that it remains a solely recognised data aggregator in the country according to law.
If anything, the delay in publishing the unemployment statistics could conceal the inefficiency of the government in the area of job creation and poverty eradication as well as give room for speculations, and mis-information.
Need to sustain public trust
The two-term reign of former NBS Chief Executive, Dr. Yemi Kale, had brought a lot of positive changes to the national data management in the country as stakeholders for the first time in years began to trust the statistics churned out by the agency.
Until then, even development partners and other international partners jettisoned data from the NBS because they doubted the integrity, methodology among others.
NBS was often under-funded by the government and manpower was also a challenge.
But it took Kale to reposition the NBS through critical partnerships and policy adjustments, which modernised data collection and repositioned it as a credible source of statistics in the country.
After Kale, there have been two successors who have struggled to keep the pace of innovation at the bureau.
In May, President Muhammadu Buhari, approved the appointment of Mr. Semiu Adeyemi Adeniran as the substantive Statistician-General of the Federation/Chief Executive Officer of the NBS. The appointment follows the demise of the former SGF, Dr. Simon Harry who took over from Kale.
Adeniran is a professional statistician of repute with bias for Demography and Social Statistics.
But, the barrage of socio-economic data regularly churned out by his predecessors appeared to have ceased – and at some points, Nigerians are beginning to even question some data outcomes in recent times on the basis that they don’t match reality – the monthly inflation statistics for instance.
The delay by the NBS to publish the unemployment data, has also given room for various interpretations by the public. Given that the jobs data is often used by politicians to advance their interests, some schools of thought believe the data release is being suppressed because the results are terrible particularly amidst the present global economic challenges. Most politicians rode into power promising to fix the unemployment challenges but with little or no success.
The unemployment results have often been discredited by politicians whenever it is not in their favour – and this has often created controversies.
In April 2021, following the unemployment data for Q4 2020, the NBS had accused the Minister of Labour and Employment, Senator Chris Ngige, of distorting facts and casting aspersion on the credibility of the employment statistics produced by the former.
The minister, through the verified official twitter handle of the ministry, alleged that the country’s employment data may be inaccurate, particularly the methodology used in arriving at the figures.
But when the statistics turn out positive, the same government will often cite it as a reference.
It is, however, baffling that even though the government recognises the role of the NBS in generating data to aid development of the country, it chooses to under-fund the agency.
Hence, the funding gap is seen in some quarters as a deliberate attempt by the government to subject the statistical agency under its control – a development that will have grave consequences for the economy.
Even though the NBS had often attributed its lapses to funding and manpower constraints, it is alleged that it only releases data that tends to portray the government in good light and withhold publication when it is otherwise. This is part of the reasons why the agency has come under attacks in recent times for allegedly being “political” with figures – claims that had variously been disputed by the agency.
Reacting to the development, the Chairman, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Abuja Branch, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, told THISDAY in an interview, that the NBS may be hamstrung by lack of funding among others.
He said, “I wouldn’t rate the agency’s performance as poor especially in the last couple of months. This is because monthly inflation numbers have been out regularly on the 15th of following month.
“Recall that the person who took over from Kale died suddenly only a few months after taking over. I think this may be partly responsible for the delay in publishing some other relevant data which are more demanding.
“Regular GDP and unemployment data, for example, are more expensive and time consuming to gather and publish.
“It is possible NBS may be having challenges with funding or cooperation from other government agencies or with their international partners in relation to the publication of some national statistics.”
Nonetheless, unemployment could among other things, affect contribution to the economy in terms of the goods or services that could have been produced and weaken purchasing power, which can further compound the crisis and create a cascading effect that ripples through the economy.
Given the current scenario, the onus is on the NBS to up its game and sustain and surpass the recent positive reforms and innovation which had already been commended by the public – and deploy timely and reliable data to aid the country’s development aspirations.
On his part, Managing Director/Chief Executive, Dignity Finance and Investment Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, called for a privately run statistical agency, citing the inefficiencies of the NBS.
He, “I have hardly relied on the accuracy of the Statistics churned out by NBS for our nation. There is nobody I know who has ever been interviewed by any staff of the organisation or answered questionnaire concerning real prices of goods and services, demography, unemployment size, import and export, formal and informal international trade etc.
“I then wonder where they get their statistics from. We do not have an efficient data base in the country that has reliable information in terms of population, deaths, births, unemployment size and rate etc.”
He said, “The next reason for non reliance on their statistics is that their Heads are appointed by government in power, and may not want to publish statistics that will embarrass the spoon that fed them.
“I recommend that we have a privately run Agency saddled with the responsibility of getting us reliable data and can be used to benchmark the NBS figures.”
Managing Director/Chief Executive, SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, said even though statistical data and analysis remained the bedrock of national development and planning, the NBS appeared to be sleeping.
He said, “The major challenges our country faces has been lack of planning over time which has made us not to have the ability to envisage major problems that plague our country on time.
“The NBS is capable of providing statistical date to aid in proper planning but they have been bedeviled with political considerations, administration bureaucracy and sometimes inadequate tools to carry out realistic analysis.”
Idakolo said, “When an agency of government like NBS that should have a measure of independence is always teleguided by the supervisory ministry that is what we get: inefficiency.
“Lack of date continues to hinder Nigeria from adequately planning for its population, have realistic plans to attack poverty, have the tools to stem brain drain or even be able to carry out of 5, 10 or 20 year plans adequately.
“The earlier this very important agency wake up to its very important responsibilities the better for our nation.”
