Besides local issues, the unhappy Nigerian voter spoke in Osun last week, contends Paul Nwabuikwu
It’s official. Isiaka Adeleke, the PDP candidate in last weekend’s Osun governorship elections who lost to incumbent Adegboyega Oyetola by a hair’s breadth margin four years ago after what many consider some last minute “magic” by APC and INEC, is the state’s brand-new governor-elect.
Even before the official confirmation of the outcome, the direction was clear from social media as statistics, photos, videos on WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook as well as word of mouth accounts from people on the ground as observers and voters poured in. According to some reports, the governor was beaten by Adeleke in the polling booth right in front of Government House, Osogbo, a significant development in terms of its symbolism and optics. But the margin of victory was far from massive – about 28,000. Adeleke obtained a total of 403,371 votes across the 30 councils of the state while Oyetola got 375,027 – paltry figures given the state’s population and the number of registered voters.
INEC, civil society and leaders at all levels will need to work harder to improve turnout because Nigerians are decidedly unenthusiastic about democracy right now. No surprise, really. Under the present administration, democratic dividends are as scarce as affordable foodstuff, as ephemeral as hope. But youth participation is a positive area. Desegregation of registered voters by age shows that 18 to 34 year-olds constitute the highest proportion – almost 40%. The future looks bright for Obidients.
But given what was at stake and the possible implications of the Osun polls for state and national politics, Adeleke might as well have won by a million votes. The margin of victory can be compared to a lone goal scoreline at the World Cup finals: unexciting result, historic impact.
Make no mistake, Oyetola is not the main loser of the election. Though he was not on the ballot, the big elephant felled in the Osun electoral quake is APC’s larger than life presidential candidate, the godfather of Bourdillon, possessor of many faces and certificates, Osun’s alleged “son of the soil” and close relative of the incumbent governor: Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
For the man who has the unique distinction of being simultaneously identified by several titles and cognomens – Asiwaju, Jagaban, BAT – the loss is both significant and ominous. It is a definite chink in his political armour, a break in his imperious stride since his comprehensive victory at the APC convention and a signal that, perhaps, the presidency may not, after all, be in his destiny.
Tinubu had gone to spectacular lengths to avoid this outcome. Determined not to lose “at home”, he had put resources and formidable network behind Oyetola. The party, no doubt prompted by its presidential candidate, also set up a 86-member Campaign council jointly chaired by the Lagos Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Kano Governor Umar Ganduje. The import of the Council’s task was underscored by the appointment of several governors as co-chairmen to support Sanwo-Olu and Ganduje: Abubakar Sani Bello of Niger State, Abubakar Bagudu of Kebbi, Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti and Babagana Zulum of Borno, etc. Other APC big wigs were also enlisted into the Council: Rotimi Amaechi, Godswill Akpabio, Gbemisola Saraki, Abubakar Malami, etc. The APC Campaign Council for the Osun elections was a very powerful conclave of power in the land while it lasted.
APC’s national chairman Abudullahi Adamu captured the mandate and significance of the body in somewhat arrogant terms during the Council’s inauguration. “We must show those who love us by showing those who are our adversaries in the strongest possible way that we are in control”, he thundered. “No apologies to anybody, we are the party of government, we are the party ruling the country today, no apologies to anybody”. In addition to the Council’s exertions, Osogbo was shut down four days before the polls for a mega rally featuring many party wigs led by Tinubu. The ruling party wanted to make a point that, like Babangida famously asserted, it was not only in office but in power. In the end, neither high profile politicking nor intimidating symbolism could stop Adeleke’s victory.
The defeat of the rather colorless Oyetola by Adeleke whose penchant for breaking into enthusiastic but rather undignified dancing during campaigns has earned him the moniker “Dancing Senator” is the latest evidence that APC’s electoral fortunes may be on the wane. The Osun result demonstrates that the ruling party is far from indomitable, that it is, in fact, beatable even in the second state of its presidential candidate’s presumed stronghold.
All politics is local and local factors were at play in APC’s loss in Osun. One such factor was the falling out of Tinubu with his long-time ally, former Osun governor and current interior minister Rauf Aregbesola. The quarrel which had been bubbling for some time blew into the open when Aregbesola who fancies himself as the godfather of the state, lost the political structure to the governor backed by Tinubu. Aregbesola has been very publicly bitter since then and his comments in the run-up to the polls showed clearly that he preferred the defeat of his party to a victory that would have left him in the political wilderness with few options after 2023. However, it’s not certain if the minister’s support helped Adeleke in the elections considering his unpopularity in the state on account of his awful record as governor. Aregbesola left the state in very poor shape, with huge debts and many colorfully promoted projects that were left uncompleted. In fact, Aregbe’s critics say that he left the state so hobbled fiscally that Oyetola had little money to work with. Be that as it may, the upshot of the elections is that APC lost a critical state and PDP gained a second vital state in the south west, in addition to Oyo.
However apart from the local factors, the loss of Osun also shows that the toughest obstacle in the way of Tinubu’s victory in next year’s polls may not be the PDP or its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar or even Tinubu’s insensitive decision to choose a Muslim running mate at this delicate time. Depending on the part of the country, the real obstacle to APC and Tinubu goes by different names: Ibrahim, Okeke, Ade, Oiza, Osagie, etc. Yes, the Nigerian voter unhappy with APC’s record of economic incompetence, burgeoning insecurity, political division and the massive mismanagement of the nation’s diversity at so many levels is the main mountain on APC’s path. Under siege in the villages of Zamfara, wracked by violence in Eket, hiding from marauders in Osogbo, crying helplessly for kidnapped relatives in Kaduna, jobless and hungry and hopeless in different parts of the country, it will be a tall order to persuade the Nigerian voter to reward APC for the past eight years with a fresh mandate. Pundits who focus exclusively on a monolithic “north” and ethno-religious factors are likely to be surprised about the impact of public anger on next year’s election. Beyond local issues, the unhappy Nigerian voter spoke in Osun last week. He will speak again.
Nwabuikwu is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board
