If the current political calculation in the ruling All Progressives Congress is anything to go by, the presidential candidate of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu, may likely ignore the public mood and settle for a Muslim running mate, writes Adedayo Akinwale
The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Tinubu, last week hinted that he was still searching for a substantive running mate ahead of the 2023 elections.
Ever since the emergence of the former Governor of Lagos State as the presidential candidate of the ruling party, there have been widespread opposition and resistance to the Muslim-Muslim ticket being mulled by the party in order.
As it stands, political parties have until July 15 to substitute their running mates where necessary for the 2023 elections. The implication is that the ruling party and its presidential candidate must name a substantive running mate, who will replace the current placeholder, Mr. Kabir Masari, by July 15.
However, since the two major political parties – APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – have Muslim presidential candidates, many Nigerians have demanded that their running mates should be Christians. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) specifically warned APC not to undermine the Christian community with the Muslim-Muslim ticket, insisting that such would not fly.
Lending its voice, the Synod of the Christian Reformed Church -Nigeria (CRC-N) also warned that choosing a Muslim -Muslim ticket would come with consequences, adding that the proposal by the APC was a calculated arrangement aimed at pushing Christians out of the political leadership of the country.
In addition, the General Superintendent of the Deeper Christian Life Ministry, Pastor William Kumuyi said Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket would be a difficult and slippery area. Also, the Northern Nigeria’s Front for Equity and Good Governance had also argued that there were a number of Christian northerners that the APC could choose from, for the sake of equity and justice.
Also sharing their views, a strong supporter of Tinubu and former Secretary the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr. Babachir Lawal had also kicked against the idea, saying ethno-religious factors were still very much relevant in Nigerian politics.
Similarly, a group within the party, APC Atakeholders had also urged the party to narrow its search for the vice presidential candidate of the party to a northern Christian to ensure national inclusion, and help manage the country’s differences and promote national unity.
But in a contrary view, Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai, while speaking during an interview on a live television programme, said the business of governance had nothing to do with religion. The Kaduna State governor, who is said to be interested in the vice presidential position, added that religion would not solve the problems of Nigeria, insisting that it was the competency of the elected leaders that would solve the problems.
Also, the Zonal Secretary of APC, South-south, Dr. Blessing Agbomhere said Tinubu should be given the freedom to choose whoever he prefered as a running mate, pointing out that a situation where leaders of some political groups and religious organisations were mounting pressure to influence the choice of one of their own would not augur well for the nation’s democracy. He noted that the solution to the challenges confronting Nigeria did not rest on whether the running mate to Tinubu is Christian or Muslim.
To the former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the party, Mr. Yekini Nabena, those against Muslim-Muslim ticket should stop sitting on the fence and participate fully in politics, rather than telling political parties what to and the choice to make.
While some stakeholders of the party believed that winning an election should not be premised on sentiment as democracy is a game of number, others were of the views that the country’s fault lines should not be widened with the purported Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Be that as it may, feelers within the ruling party showed that the current stiff opposition may not deter the party from presenting a Muslim-Muslim ticket in any way due to what they described as the political realities.
However, consultation is still ongoing on the issue of acceptable running mate with much needed clout to help APC retain power beyond 2023. Some of the northern Christians who are believed to be interested in the position include: Governor Simon Lalong of Plateau State; Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mr. Boss Mustapha, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Yakubu Dogara.
But a former Chairman of APC in Lagos State, Mr. Henry Ajomale had stated that the party would field a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the 2023 presidential election despite growing opposition to the proposal. Ajomale, who was not in a position to speak for the ruling party, however insisted that the APC could not afford to gamble at such a critical moment when opposition candidates were desperately seeking an inroad to claim massive votes in the North.
Ajomale said, “Although we are still consulting, it is certain that the APC will be flying a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Masari, our placeholder, may likely be substituted before July 15. However, the destination is still between Borno State in the North-east and Kano/Kaduna states in the North-west. Either way, it will be a Muslim running mate.”
“The truth is that Asiwaju has no choice. The majority of the northerners are Muslims and fielding a Christian northerner is a risk that can split his vote to give Atiku an edge. But if he settles for the former (a Muslim), they will troop out in large numbers to vote for him.”
The North-west and North-east geopolitical zones, which are predominantly Muslims, have the bloc votes. It is believed that if the party could not find a stronger Christian from the two sub-regions, it might settle for a Muslim running mate.
The ruling party had already narrowed its search for a running mate to the two regions. However, there were indications that the northern governors from the North-west and North-east were divided over the choice of a suitable running mate.
Initially, the plan of the APC governors was that one of them should succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023, but the political dynamics changed at the long run, which forced them to settle for the position of the running mate.
Those being considered include: former governor of Borno State, Senator Kashim Shettima and the incumbent governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum; his Kebbi State counterpart, Atiku Bagudu and Kaduna State governor, el-Rufai. Zulum had repeatedly said he had no interest in being a running mate.
A chieftain of the APC told THISDAY that while Zulum wanted his predecessor to be considered, el-Rufai has his eye on the seat. Interestingly, the Kaduna State governor had said in the past that he did not like Tinubu’s style. Many are therefore wondering why his name is still being constantly mentioned.
For instance, speaking at a webinar in commemoration of the 63rd birthday of the Minister of Interior and former Governor of Osun State, Mr. Rauf Aregbesola, in May 2020, el-Rufai, had noted that Aregbesola remained his man any day but that Tinubu was not his man. This, he said, was due to the differences between him and the former Lagos State governor.
“I want to congratulate my brother, Ogbeni (Aregbesola), on his birthday. You know I’m your man any day. I’m not Asiwaju’s man and you are Asiwaju’s man, but I am your man any day. Asiwaju and I have differences but you and I have no differences,” el-Rufai reportedly said.
Also at an event organised by the Bridge Club tagged, “An evening with His Excellency Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Governor of Kaduna State, in May 2016, the Kaduna State governor was believed to be referring to Tinubu when he explained how to end godfatherism in Lagos. A Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Dr. Muiz Banire, had asked el-Rufai how godfathership could be dealt with given how it had served as one of the drawbacks for professionals and businessmen who might want to go into politics.
With the emergence of Mr. Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of Labour Party; Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso as presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the PDP and Tinubu as APC candidate, the 2023 elections would be more of a regional votes.
For instance, the North-east where Atiku hails from has six states with three being controlled by APC governors. They are Yobe, Gombe and Borno states. The states risk being penetrated through Adamawa, which is Atiku’s stronghold. The PDP as a party has its grip on the South-south too.
In the North-west, Kwankwaso has taken over like wildfire. Kano can’t fetch APC the usual votes in 2023 like it got in the past due to Kwankwaso’s influence. Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna are within his reach. It is expected that Obi will sweep the South-east votes, while Tinubu will maintain his form grip on South-west
Political analysts are of the opinion that the ruling party is really in a fix and may field a Muslim from the North-east as a running mate to Tinubu. They pointed out that zoning the position to the North-east would reduce Atiku’s influence in the zone, while all the political parties shift their battle ground to the North-central.
