Campaign Watch
After an acrimonious battle that left virtually all the contenders politically bruised and financially drained, the All Progressives Congress, APC, finally held its presidential primaries last week and former governor of Lagos State and the self-proclaimed National Leader of the party, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, picked the ticket. For the APC, it was the night of the long knives in Abuja as the aspirants tried to outdo and outspend each other.
The party leadership too was not left out in the massive intrigues that accompanied the exercise. To the shock of the aspirants, especially those from the South who felt the ticket should come to one of them, the National Chairman of the party, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, had announced the name of the current Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, as the consensus candidate. It was a big shock to the aspirants. But it was just part of the bigger plot to not only stop Tinubu but for the powers that be in the presidency to keep the ticket in the North. These powers included the cabal in the presidency who did not want Osinbajo over his handling of certain state matters when he held fort for Buhari during his numerous medical trips abroad.
Adamu was said to have met with other party executives who vehemently refused to toe his line. They not only refused to buy into the Lawan plot, they reached to northern governors who quickly met and agreed that the ticket must go to the South. After their meeting, they were said to have headed to the presidential villa to meet with President Muhammadu Buhari so they could present their position to him. However, sensing that they might not be able to see the president on time, they leaked their signed communiqué to the media and it was to the effect that they would want the party’s presidential ticket to go to the South.
Sources told THISDAY that the northern governors had the support of the First Lady, Aisha Buhari, who was also said to be rooting for one of the southern aspirants. When the Lawan kite would not fly, and the aspirants, especially Tinubu, would not accede to the idea of consensus, the decision was finally taken that that every aspirant would have to test his popularity with the delegates. Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo was said to have spent hours with the President, who reportedly told him at the last minute that he would have to go for voting like other aspirants.
However, northern governors’ rooting for a southern standard-bearer was not all for altruistic reasons as now the scheming to be running mate to Tinubu has started in earnest and the thorny issue of religion has reared its ugly head yet again. Tinubu who picked the ticket is from the South but he is a Muslim. It is still fresh in our memory that he himself lost the battle to be Buhari’s running mate in 2015 because the leaders of the party thought, and correctly so, that a Muslim-Muslim ticket could never go down well with voters from the southern part of the country. Now, the party is back to where it was in 2015: the possibility of a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
The dilemma of Candidate Tinubu is that most of the northern governors who supported him want to be his running mate. Leading the battle for the vice-presidential slot is the current governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. Not left out is the governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje, and his Jigawa State counterpart, Mohammed Badaru.
And suddenly, El-Rufai has realised that religion should not be an issue whenever the nation is looking for leaders and he also blamed the media for playing up the issue of religion too much. Hear him:
I don’t think we should be looking at religion. We want to develop this country. When I get onto a plane, I don’t ask the religion of the pilot. When I go to the hospital, I don’t ask for the doctor’s religion. I just want to get well. I just want to get to my destination when on an aircraft. The way the media and many irresponsible people try to inject religion into politics and governance is sad and pathetic and will not take us anywhere.”
Yet, El-Rufai was one of those who felt a Muslim-Muslim ticket would not fly for the APC in 2015.
To demonstrate the extremes of position this issue of Tinubu’s running mate has created in the North, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, David Babachir Lawal, said Tinubu should not listen to those who said a Muslim-Muslim ticket is no big deal.
“I have lived among the Christians and I know that among the Christians, the question of a Muslim-Muslim ticket is a no-go area. It is dead on arrival. Buhari himself, even at that time, had to drop this present presidential candidate (Tinubu) because of the tension of a Muslim-Muslim ticket. And we have not seen anything in the country that has changed significantly to allow that to happen. On the contrary, it has worsened. The religious divide has increased. Tribal divisions have increased. Regional divisions have increased. So, it would be a good thing if APC would settle for a Muslim-Christian ticket because we know (that the) PDP, that is what they would do.”
Reports have it that Tinubu would pick his running mate tomorrow with Kano governor, Ganduje, Kebbi governor, Bagudu, and former Borno State governor, Kashim Shettima, being front runners. They are all Muslims. If Tinubu picks any of them, then he will have a lot of explanation to do for his southern Christian supporters. That is for sure.
Ekiti 2022: As APC and SDP Biker, PDP’s Implosion Haunts Fayose
This weekend, June 18 precisely, the governorship election in Ekiti will be held. It is going to be a three-horse race between former Governor Segun Oni of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, Bisi Kolawole, of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, and Biodun Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress, APC.
The peaceful atmosphere that has characterised the campaign was shattered by the violence that occurred in Itaji-Ekiti, in Oye Local Government area of the state last Saturday. Itaji is just a few kilometres from Isan-Ekiti, the hometown of the outgoing governor, Kayode Fayemi. Trouble started when some members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers, NURTW, and Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria, RTEAN, were going for a rally in support of APC’s Oyebanji and they ran into a rally being organised by SDP members in support of Segun Oni. By the time the dust cleared, at least, one person had been confirmed dead. The violence continued in Ado-Ekiti on Sunday before military officers, who were deployed to the state ahead of the election, nipped it in the bud.
From all indications, the APC seems to have resolved the acrimony that greeted the emergence of Biodun Oyebanji. He was the anointed candidate of Governor Fayemi and the conduct of the primaries, which many admitted fell short of required standards, generated a lot of bad blood within the party. Senator Opeyemi Bamidele, who contested the ticket with Oyebanji expressed his displeasure but chose not to go to court nor leave the party. He had since picked the senatorial ticket of the party for Ekiti Central Senatorial District.
The party, for reasons best known to Governor Fayemi and some of his henchmen, did not give tickets to over 20 serving members of the state House of Assembly who were elected on the platform of the APC. In fact, only one House of Representatives member would be returning. Sources said it was part of the plan to ensure that Fayemi retains control over the party and its structure after he might have left office.
As it stands, the battle would be between APC’s Oyebanji and SDP’s Segun Oni. Oni has gained a lot of ground and those who are rooting for him are mainly PDP members who felt Fayose cheated him out of the ticket and joined him when he ported to SDP. And the way it is, Fayose seems to be comfortable being just a partaker in the election of June 18.
Analysts and political watchers in the state believe that Fayose’s determination to have full control over the party has not really helped the party in the build-up to the election. For instance, Senator Biodun Olujimi, the most senior member of the party holding an elective position, is not on the same page with Fayose who usually claims he is the father of the party in the state.
For instance, former deputy governor, Professor Olusola Eleka, withdrew from the race for the PDP ticket for the Ekiti South Senatorial seat; claiming that after Fayose had endorsed him and raised up his hand, he also encouraged another contestant from his (Eleka’s) hometown of Ikere-Ekiti to obtain form for the same senatorial seat.
In Ekiti Central Federal Constituency I, Fayose’s son, Rogba, picked the party’s ticket while his former media aide, Lere Olayinka, picked the ticket for Ekiti Central Constituency II. Rumours making the rounds then indicated that the ticket Rogba got might be withdrawn and given to one Alhaji Ajijola who had already picked the party’s ticket for Ekiti Central Senatorial District. The plan then was that since Fayose was never in reckoning for the PDP presidential ticket (he obtained the form), he could exploit the option of candidate substitution in July and take the ticket from Ajijola and give him the House of Representatives ticket which his son, Rogba, is currently holding.
Though this has not happened yet.
Fayose, from all indications, does not want to lose a fraction of the control of the party in the state. He always wants to be the reference point of the party in the state and this has ostracised so many party leaders in the state.
“If you are not in Fayose’s camp in the state, then you cannot get anything. He runs the party like a personal estate. Even during exco meetings, he simply gives orders. That is why I am afraid for my party ahead of the governorship election,” Olusola Arogbodo, a staunch member of the party in the state, told THISDAY on phone. Arogbodo, who recently resigned as a member of the party’s governorship campaign council in the state, said he doubts if any state branch of the party is managed the way Fayose manages PDP in Ekiti.
As the election draws closer, perhaps, Fayose will pull through against the odds and help the party back to power in the state. But from all indications, he does not only have the APC to beat, but also internal implosions with the PDP to deal with.
Obi’s Labour Party Challenge is Headache for PDP
Shortly before the presidential primaries of the People’s Democratic Party, former Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State and arguably the strongest Southeast contender for the ticket, decamped from the PDP citing massive monetisation of the exercise and vowing not to be part of what he described as a charade.
Almost immediately, Obi moved to the Labour Party and after some furore last week, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has confirmed Obi as the presidential candidate of the party.
Even the staunchest of PDP supporters cannot deny the fact that the Obi presidential challenge is going to be a nightmare for the party. In the first instance, ethnic emotions have gone so high since Obi moved to the Labour party and picked the party’s ticket. Many Igbo have been thronging centres where Permanent Voter Card, PVC, is being obtained to either renew or get theirs. In fact, some churches are said to be using it as a criterion to be allowed to participate in church activities.
On social media, Obi is gaining a lot of support, especially among young Nigerians who seem to be tired of APC and PDP. Many of them have vowed that they would rather ‘waste’ their votes on Obi than voting either Atiku or Tinubu of PDP and APC respectively. The movement seems to have become bigger than Obi himself and that is where PDP must be naturally worried.
Since 1999, the PDP has always taken votes from the Southeast for granted. The zone has never failed to vote for the party massively. Since 2015, the ruling APC has not been able to make inroads into the zone. In fact, the two governors from the zone who are on the APC platform did not come via popular elections. Governor Dave Umahi of Abia State was elected on the platform of the PDP but later decamped to the APC. Senator Hope Uzodinma of Imo State was a product of a Supreme Court pronouncement. The All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, has been winning Anambra State in the last three governorship elections while Enugu and Ebonyi States are firmly with PDP.
However, if Obi maintains the momentum, then PDP might be in trouble in the Southeast. From all indications, votes from the zone might be shared this time, with Obi taking a larger chunk of it, leaving the PDP scrambling for votes from other zones.
In the Southwest, traditional PDP supporters, especially the younger ones, are rooting for Obi. And that is another bad news for the PDP. Many of those who have steadfastly stood with the PDP are now moving with the Obi political train with many of them claiming that their support for Atiku in 2019 was because he picked Obi as his running mate.
Can Obi win the election? That is not likely but he will surely play the role of a spoiler for the PDP. This seems to be the most likely scenario and the greatest beneficiary would be a certain former Lagos State governor who picked the APC presidential ticket last week.
Osun 2022: Will Adeleke Pull Through This Time?
Even President Muhammadu Buhari, perhaps in a moment of faux pas, admitted that his party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, did not win the 2018 governorship election in Osun State. He said the party had to use “remote control” to win the election which produced the incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, as the governor.
The election was practically done and dusted and the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Senator Ademola Adeleke, was coasting home to victory until the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, declared the election as being inconclusive and ordered a by-election in Ile-Ife. In fact, in less than four Wards. With intimidation that had arguably never been seen in the state, the ruling APC was able to pull through and Oyetola of the APC polled 254,698 to Adeleke’s 254,354 votes.
On July 16 this year, Oyetola would attempt to renew his mandate. That he has performed beyond average is practically not debatable; especially in the area of workers’ welfare and recalibration of the state’s education system which the former governor, Rauf Aregbesola, nearly ran aground due to his strange policies and actions. Oyetola has also discharged himself well in the area of industrialisation and engendering social harmony.
Beyond all these, however, the ghost of the electoral abracadabra that brought him to office in 2018 has refused to rest. And now that Adeleke has picked the PDP ticket again, it is a case of deja vu. There were questions over Adeleke’s eligibility but this has been settled by the courts and now, the stage is set for the election.
Ahead of the election, Oyetola and his estranged former boss, Aregbesola, seem to have made up while some Yoruba leaders were said to have weighed in on the acrimony between Aregbesola and his own former principal, Bola Tinubu, who Aregbesola took to the cleaner’s in a viral video. Aregbesola’s candidate for the party’s ticket, Lasun Yusuf, was trounced in the primary election and Aregbesola felt Tinubu was behind it. However, at least on the surface, the two have made up.
However, that might not translate into electoral victory for the party going by internal intrigues that might still be playing out beneath the surface. Adeleke has public sympathy no doubt but it remains to be seen if the sympathy would play any role in July. It is one election the ruling APC would never want to lose. Adeleke has promised to match them in spending and the contest promises to be interesting in the weeks and days ahead.
And that is why the question remains: will Adeleke be lucky this time around and get the mandate to govern the state?
