Obinna Chima
The present generation of students now risks losing $17 trillion in lifetime earnings in present value, or about 14 percent of today’s global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a result of COVID-19 pandemic-related school closures, according to a new report published yesterday by the World Bank, UNESCO, and UNICEF.
The new projection revealed that the impact was more severe than previously thought, and far exceeded the $10 trillion estimates released in 2020.
In addition, the report titled: “The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery,” showed that in low- and middle-income countries, the share of children living in Learning Poverty – already 53 per cent before the pandemic – could potentially reach 70 per cent given the long school closures and the ineffectiveness of remote learning to ensure full learning continuity during school closures.
“The COVID-19 crisis brought education systems across the world to a halt,” World Bank Global Director for Education, Jaime Saavedra said.
“Now, 21 months later, schools remain closed for millions of children, and others may never return to school. The loss of learning that many children are experiencing is morally unacceptable. And the potential increase of Learning Poverty might have a devastating impact on future productivity, earnings, and well-being for this generation of children and youth, their families, and the world’s economies,” she added.
According to the report, simulations estimating that school closures resulted in significant learning losses are now being corroborated by real data.
For example, it stated that regional evidence from Brazil, Pakistan, rural India, South Africa, and Mexico, among others, showed substantial losses in math and reading.
Furthermore, analysis showed that in some countries, on average, learning losses are roughly proportional to the length of the closures.
“However, there was great heterogeneity across countries and by subject, students’ socioeconomic status, gender, and grade level. For example, results from two states in Mexico show significant learning losses in reading and in math for students aged 10-15. “The estimated learning losses were greater in math than reading, and affected younger learners, students from low-income backgrounds, as well as girls disproportionately,” it added.
According to the report, barring a few exceptions, the general trends from emerging evidence around the world aligned with the findings from Mexico, suggesting that the crisis has exacerbated inequities in education,
It found that children from low-income households, children with disabilities, and girls were less likely to access remote learning than their peers. This was often due to lack of accessible technologies and the availability of electricity, connectivity, and devices, as well as discrimination and gender norms, it added.
Its findings also showed that younger students had less access to remote learning and were more affected by learning loss than older students, especially among pre-school age children in pivotal learning and development stages.
The detrimental impact on learning has disproportionately affected the most marginalised or vulnerable. Learning losses were greater for students of lower socioeconomic status in countries like Ghana, Mexico, and Pakistan, it added.
“The COVID-19 pandemic shut down schools across the world, disrupting education for 1.6 billion students at its peak, and exacerbated the gender divide. In some countries, we’re seeing greater learning losses among girls and an increase in their risk of facing child labor, gender-based violence, early marriage, and pregnancy. To stem the scars on this generation, we must reopen schools and keep them open, target outreach to return learners to school, and accelerate learning recovery,” said UNICEF Director of Education Robert Jenkins.
The report highlighted that, to date, less than three per cent of governments’ stimulus packages were allocated to education. Much more funding will be needed for immediate learning recovery. The report also noted that while nearly every country in the world offered remote learning opportunities for students, the quality and reach of such initiatives differed – in most cases, they offered, at best, a rather partial substitute for in-person instruction.
“Reopening schools must remain a top and urgent priority globally to stem and reverse learning losses. Countries should put in place Learning Recovery Programs with the objective of assuring that students of this generation attain at least the same competencies of the previous generation,” it added.
