The cost of insecurity to the economy is much greater
Last week revelation by the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC) that banditry, Boko Haram insurgency, farmer-herder’s conflict, separatist agitation, and other violent eruptions cost the nation a whopping sum of $10.3bn in 2020, has continued to elicit debate. Insecurity, according to the council, has crippled economic activities nationwide and contracted the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2.6 per cent.
The real cost of insecurity is difficult to determine. GDP figures do not give the entire picture of the fiscal bucket. How do you put a cost to the thousands of people dislodged from jobs and their homes? Or of men and women whose lives were cut short or indeed of nervous investors? How does one account for the destruction of farms by herdsmen, the fear that keeps farmers away from their sources of livelihood and the killing and maiming of farmers? How does one also account for the rustling of cows and the violence often visited on herders? Or the cost of mobilising and deploying military troops to 34 of the 36 states in a federation that is not at war with any country but itself?
By the last count, more than 36,000 lives have been lost since 2009 to the Boko Haram insurgency and the figure is climbing. Besides, property of all hues – homes, offices, schools, have been razed; millions of our citizens have become refugees in their own country with several families dislocated, not to talk of the disruptions in the school calendar. With bandits and kidnappers joining the growing number of criminal cartels, thousands of schools have been forced to close because of incessant abductions of students and teachers. The local economy in many of these states have been reduced to almost nil. Kano, city of commerce and indeed the largest economy up north with a vibrant textile market, and serving many neighbouring states of Cameroun, Mali, Niger, Chad, and more, is rendered prostrate. Jos, the Plateau State capital and the hitherto tourist destination of many local and foreigners alike is in ruins because of sustained ethno-religious crisis.
However, this is not a challenge restricted to the North. The business environment in practically all parts of the country is now becoming toxic even for the local entrepreneurs. In the South, kidnappers and violent herders have practically seized the space and agriculture is now a high-risk enterprise even for rural dwellers who survive by subsistence farming. Meanwhile, the federal government that is expected to deploy its formidable national security resources to tackle the challenge seems helpless. There is now an urgent need to develop a framework that would enable the country to effectively respond to any crisis and thus safeguard lives, property and ensure stability and growth in the economy.
Government at all levels must pay attention to the number of people that are available to be recruited into violence. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says that unemployment is around 33%. The situation may in fact be worse. By the time we add the under-employed population, the figures could be really alarming This is a reserved army waiting to be recruited for any enterprise, including violence.
If we must reverse the shrinking investments and restore confidence in the economy, it is evident that the present strategy of mobilising the entire military to combat insecurity is not effective. Soldiers are not trained to perform such delicate assignment. There is therefore the urgent need to develop a framework that will enable the country to effectively respond to internal crisis and safeguard lives and property while ensuring stability and growth in the economy.
