•400 killed in April, says report
Dike Onwuamaeze in Lagos and Ibrahim Shuaibu in Kano
Troops of the 3rd Brigade of the Nigerian Army in Kano have raided Filin Lazio in Hotoro quarters of Nassarawa Local Government Area of Kano State and arrested 13 suspected members of Boko Haram.
The arrest came just as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has estimated that 400 Nigerians were killed in April by suspected Boko Haram insurgents, bandits, herdsmen and other non-state actors.
A source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told journalists yesterday that the military operation in Kano was carried out while the Muslim faithful were breaking their Ramadan fast.
“The sudden operation took the residents by surprise and that compelled many of them to flee the area,” the source said.
It was gathered that the targeted mosque belongs to some indigenes of Borno State, who fled the North-east following the intensity of the nefarious activities of Boko Haram insurgents.
According to the source, the troops also took away some items from the surroundings of the mosque before whisking away the suspects.
The army spokesperson, Captain Njoka Irabor, who confirmed the operation, said he could not give the exact number of suspects arrested.
Meanwhile, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, has estimated that 400 Nigerians lost their lives due to the activities of the Boko Haram, bandits, herdsmen and other forms of insecurities in April.
Rewane, in a report, which he presented at the monthly Lagos Business School’s executive breakfast session for May predicted that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might improve in the second quarter of 2021, while revenue available for sharing by the three tiers of government may hit N700 billion in May.
The report also stated that Nigeria went up on the global ranking of terrorist attacks from the fourth position in 2018 to third position in 2020.
Rewane said: “The economic losses the country might suffer as a result of the worsening insecurity would include escalating food crisis as farming activities decline, spiralling inflation, loss of new investments and increase in capital flight, no hub status as African Continental Free Trade Area agreement progresses, squeeze incorporate gains and displacement effect and rise in emigration.”
He also projected a potential rise in Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter from 2.5 per cent to above three per cent.
“The GDP growth could stall in Q1 due to the base year effect. But Q2 GDP is estimated at 3.7 per cent mainly due to the resilience of the informal sector, massive vaccination and herd immunity,” he added.
He based his projection on historical facts that showed that economic booms follow each post-pandemic era.
He said: “Pandemic occurs once in every 100 years. But GDP tends to bounce back after a period of disruptions such as wars and pandemics. Evidence from earlier pandemics suggests that people accumulate savings as spending opportunities decline.
“The great lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic is not any different. As the economy recovers and activities increase spending rises, leading to a post-pandemic boom.”
Rewane also predicted that the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could climb to 55 points in May as economic activities improve and would be supported by better access to foreign exchange to acquire raw materials.
“Total value of transactions fell by 6.3 per cent to N23.19 trillion in April 2021 from N24.75 trillion in March 2021. However, the value of transactions is expected to rise towards N25trillion in May 2021.
“Also, on the backdrop of increasing economic activities the FAAC allocation will go up by 12.5 per cent to N681.3billion in April 2021 from N605.59 billion in March 2021 and might hit N700 billion in May 2021. It will be supported by exchange rate gains, VAT and Company Income Tax revenue, imports and excise duty. The rise in the FAAC will temporarily support state and local governments’ financial obligations,” he added.
Yet, headline inflation, according to him, could hit 20 per cent in May but would be expected to taper down slightly in Q3 to 17.5 per cent.
He said: “Inflation is currently100 per cent above CBN’s nine per cent threshold. Inflationary pressure will continue to weaken disposable income and manufacturers’ profitability and will be beyond the monetary phenomenon in Nigeria.
“It is also episodic and will be driven by factors specific to a particular period. These factors are 42 per cent structural, 25 per cent monetary and 30 per cent transient.
“Interest rate on treasury bills will continue to rise as 364-day t/bill rates fast approaching 12 per cent per annum in Q2.
“Our view is that a $4 billion to $5billion disbursement to the market by the CBN will reduce external reserves by $2 billion to $3billion. It will allow the parallel market to converge towards N470/$ and reduce naira liquidity in the system and push interest rates up at the interbank market by 300-400bps.”
He stated that “an approach to the Eurobond market would make Nigeria move towards exchange rate correction.”
