Bola Tinubu And The Last Nigerians

Bola Tinubu And The Last Nigerians

Tinubu is fit and proper to run for the presidency, argues Ike Okonta

Watchers of the Nigerian political scene are grappling with two major questions at the moment. Will the presidency move to the southern part of the country in 2023? Will Bola Tinubu, national leader of the All Peoples Congress (APC), throw his hat into the ring and contest the presidential election?
The Northern Peoples Summit, a coalition of northern political and social groups including the Arewa Consultative Forum and Northern Elders Forum, fired a warning shot after a two-day meeting in Kaduna last April when it declared: ‘The North believes that restructuring the country is now a vital necessity for survival as one united entity. The North will not be stampeded or blackmailed into taking major decisions around rotating the presidency.’ Put in stark terms, northern politicians and leaders of thought are saying that now that they have the presidency on their lap, they will not willingly let it return to the south as is expected.

The Fourth Republic which began life in May 1999 was founded on the unwritten agreement that the presidency would rotate between the south and north after two presidential terms. This is what informed President Olusegun Obasanjo’s decision to support Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a northerner from Katsina State, to vie for the presidency in 2007 after his term expired. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua took ill and died in September 2010 before he had even completed one term and the presidency went to Goodluck Jonathan, his deputy and a southerner. This development did not go down well with northern politicians who were quick to remind their southern counterparts of the unwritten 1999 agreement on presidential power rotation.

Northern anger made itself felt in 2015 when even northern politicians in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the platform on which President Jonathan contested the 2015 election, campaigned openly for Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the latter went on to win the election. Northern anger was understandable. A multi-ethnic and multi-religious country like Nigeria just emerging from several decades of military dictatorship needed to spread power between its various constituent groups and ensure that no one was left out. Democracy, properly understood, is all about inclusion, and denying power to a key social group will not only threaten national cohesion, it will threaten the continued practice of democracy itself.

Bola Tinubu, a leading Nigerian politician, understands this truism more than most. This is why, after he left the governorship of Lagos State in 2007, the Action Congress (AC), the political party he helped found, fielded Atiku Abubakar, a northerner from Adamawa State, as its presidential candidate to challenge Umaru Musa Yar’Adua that same year. Obasanjo, a southerner from Ogun State, had just relinquished power as president and it was clear to Tinubu that it was time for the office to return to the north. Unfortunately, the election was heavily rigged by the departing Obasanjo and Atiku Abubakar and the Action Congress were unjustly denied power. Even so, Tinubu’s desire that presidential power return to the north was fulfilled in the person of Yar’Adua flying the flag of the PDP.

The death of Yar’Adua in 2010 threw the country into the political wilderness. The cabal behind the late president was most reluctant to hand over to Vice President Jonathan, a southerner. Bola Tinubu’s was one of the leading voices that insisted that the provisions of the 1999 Constitution be respected and that Jonathan should be immediately sworn in as President. Invoking a ‘doctrine of necessity’ the National Assembly and the Federal Executive Council worked together and Jonathan was duly sworn in. Even so, Bola Tinubu recognized that northern politicians would be aggrieved and that the path to political wisdom and fairness lay in placating them.

Consequently, he chose another northerner – the second time – to fly the Action Congress flag during the 2011 presidential election. Tinubu’s choice of Nuhu Ribadu was significant. At the time Ribadu had absolutely no political experience, nor did he have a political base of his own in the north or anywhere else. His claim to fame was headship of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) between 2003 and 2007 where he acquitted himself creditably. Tinubu’s calculation was that Nuhu Ribadu’s fame as a corruption fighter and his fearlessness in taking on the powerful and mighty in the country would attract the necessary winning votes. But uppermost in Tinubu’s mind was the desire to plug the hole which the death of Musa Yar’Adua had left in the country’s political firmament with the northern part feeling shortchanged. If Ribadu won the presidential election flying the flag of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), this would see presidential power return to the north, thereby mollifying northern politicians.

Like Atiku Abubakar before him, Ribadu failed to win the 2011 presidential election. But Tinubu was undeterred. As 2015 neared, he began to prepare the ground for a grand coalition of opposition parties to take on the PDP. The All Progressives Congress which emerged in 2014 with Muhammadu Buhari as presidential candidate was largely Bola Tinubu’s doing. Ever faithful to the unwritten agreement of 1999 on presidential power rotation, it was necessary that power move from Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, to another northerner. Tinubu had nothing personal against Jonathan: the future political stability of the country was far more important. Tinubu’s long-held wish was fulfilled when Buhari won the presidential election in 2015 and again in 2019.

Come 2023 and northern politicians will be called upon to replicate the Tinubu example and ensure that presidential power returns to the south. Such northern governors as Aminu Masari of Katsina State and Babagana Zulum of Borno State have led the way in this regard, stating in clear and unequivocal terms that it is the turn of the south to produce the president. That is as it should be. It is not clear yet whether Bola Tinubu, the kingmaker, will now move to be king by contesting the 2023 presidential election. If he does take that decision, then clearly he deserves to be supported fully by the north, after all one good turn deserves another.

However, if efforts are made to frustrate Bola Tinubu’s legitimate ambition to be president, this will give new life to the secessionist currents presently roiling the southeast and the southwest. Champions of secession will point to what has been done to Tinubu in spite of his ardent support for a northern president in 2015 and argue that the north is not interested in a fair, balanced and inclusive federation. Others who are presently undecided will begin to see reason with the secessionists and continued Nigerian unity will be imperiled. If this happens, then this present generation will turn out to be the last Nigerians.
––Dr Okonta was until recently Leverhulme Early Career Fellow in the Department of Politics, University of Oxford. He lives in Abuja

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It is not clear yet whether Tinubu, the kingmaker, will now move to be king by contesting the 2023 presidential election. If he does take that decision, then clearly he deserves to be supported fully by the north, after all one good turn deserves another

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