By Festus Ayaowei
Citizens of the oil-rich Bayelsa State are getting set to elect a new governor come November 16, 2019, as the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, is rounding off his second term in office.
Unlike in the past governorship elections in the state, anxiety is thick in the air and is visible in the nook and cranny of the state, especially among the supporters and leaders of the two major political parties. Traditionally, Bayelsa is a known Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) state and political observers and watchers of political events in the country would give any election in the state to the party.
However, the result of the March 2019 National Assembly Elections, where the All Progressives Congress (APC) made great inroads into the state, has thrown permutations on the result of future election in the state open. Thus, as the preparation towards the election has reached a feverish level, the APC leaders are boasting that they will consolidate on the gains of the March 2019 election while PDP leaders and supporters on the other hand, are girding their loins, and assuring their supporters that the party had never lost a gubernatorial election in the state since 1999 and that, such will not happen this year.
Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has announced that 45 political parties will participate in the 2019 Bayelsa Governorship Election and has gone further to release the names of the 45 candidates and their deputies, political analysts agree that the race is mainly between two political parties – PDP, APC – and their candidates – Senator Douye Diri and Chief David Lyon respectively.
PDP’s candidate, Diri who hails from Kolokuma/Okpokuma Local Government Area, is a Senator representing Bayelsa Central Senatorial District, and before his election in 2019 as a senator, he had served as a member of the House of Representatives. He had also been a Commissioner for Youth and Sports in the state, when former President Goodluck Jonathan was governor of Bayelsa. Aside from politics, Diri has been a teacher, which he is always proud to mention; and a businessman. Besides, he was the Organising Secretary of the Ijaw National Congress, a position that drew him closer to the grassroots.
The APC Candidate, Chief David Lyon on the other hand, apart from being a successful oil magnate, there is little known about his public life. He was a youth President in his community, Olugbibiri, between 1996-98, and has been involved in politics from the days of National Republican Convention and the Social Democratic Party in the Third Republic.
Lyon, who hails from Southern Ijaw Local Government Area, is a big time player in the oil sector. He reportedly owns six ocean liners that lift oil for multinationals including the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
As the election draws near, the question on the lips of political observers is whether it is possible for the APC and its candidate, David Lyon to dislodge the PDP from the Bayelsa Government House.
As the debate rages on, the recent protest by some group that Lyon was a former Militant Leader might also be a minus for the APC and its candidate in the coming election.
Most APC leaders, who spoke with our reporter are of the view that dislodging PDP in Bayelsa during the November 16 governorship election is not going to be a tea party, considering the visible achievements of the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, and his predecessors who were PDP members.
Speaking in the same vein, a political affairs commentator, Comrade Philip Odua, said, For APC to defeat PDP in the forthcoming governorship election is an uphill task. The only party the Bayelsans at the grassroots are aware of is PDP. Forget what happened in the last general election, this is governorship election and the people understand what it means when you talk of continuity. I am talking of continuity of more than 20 years. The party has governed the state since 1999, with established structures at far-flung creeks.
It was also gathered that while the primary election that produced Diri was adjudged by most of the aspirants as keen, free and fair by other aspirants except former Managing Director, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Chief Timi Alaibe, who complained of procedural defects, the primaries that threw up Lyon has become a bitter pill for other aspirants in the party to swallow.
Our finding shows that most of the aspirants that contested against Lyon are unhappy with the conduct of the election and the result declared. There is therefore fear that some of them may work against the party. So to brighten APC’s chances, watchers of political events in Bayelsa are of the opinion that the national leadership of the party must reconcile aggrieved aspirants.
Lyon’s critics also believe he has little experience when it comes to politics and that he only rode on the back of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva. They believe that Sylva settled for him for his own selfish reasons. This is even as it has been alleged by some analysts that his emergence has thrown up fresh issues of disagreement and possible re-alignment within and outside the main opposition party in the state.
The fact that the APC also boycotted the crucial grassroots election, organised by the Bayelsa State Independent Electoral Commission in August this year and created an atmosphere that made the ruling party, PDP, to win all the eight local government areas in the state is also seen as a minus for the party as it is going into the November election.
“PDP will not only have the power of incumbency at the state level but will have the executive chairmen of all the local government councils in the state, so the PDP is solid going into the election,” John Nwodo , a political watcher in Yenagoa volunteered.
However, some observers in the state agreed that Lyon’s candidature is the best for the APC as they believe that he will enjoy the support of many former militant leaders in the creeks and that his stupendous wealth may also be a weapon to fight PDP to a standstill.
However, if there is anyone who is not afraid of the PDP winning the November election, that person is the Governor of Bayelsa State, Mr Seriake Dickson.
Dickson has maintained that the APC is “a toothless bulldog” that lacks the capacity to win any free and fair election in the state.
Many PDP leaders who spoke to us believe the party has the chance to win the election but they are calling for caution.
A PDP leader in the state, Joseph David, said, The PDP has a better chance to win the election but we need to be cautious. There should be urgent reconciliation. If we go to the election as a divided house, we will be defeated. The crisis in the House of Assembly should be resolved on time if we want to win. We should also placate the aggrieved aspirants. We need to be careful and we should not take the APC victory in March election as a play.”
It was gathered that the performance of PDP and APC would be determined more by the level of unity in each of the parties and how they are able to market their candidates.
“Everyone is looking at how the two leading parties will resolve the current disagreements. This is what counts as at today. However, Diri, in my opinion may have an upper hand because of his antecedents and the achievements of the current Governor,” a political analyst from Bayelsa State, who spoke in confidence, said.
*Ayaowei writes from Port Harcourt
