Confronting Lagos’ Urban Migration Nightmare

 The rapid urban migration experienced in Lagos State has attendant consequences on its infrastructure, write Obinna Chima and Ugo Aliogo

  At about 9pm at the popular Oshodi bus stop in Lagos, a THISDAY reporter was approached by two teenagers who were begging for money to eat. During this brief encounter, it was discovered that these young men had arrived Lagos few days back. They explained that they had to flee from one of the Boko Haram ravaged states in the north-eastern part of the country.  Beyond these two men, they were other young men who were noticeably sleeping under the bridge as well as on the railway track. This, no doubt is one of the challenges confronting Lagos state.

Clearly, with a population estimated at over 21 million (and still rising), Lagos is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. As a result of the cosmopolitan nature, it is one of the preferred destinations for many individuals.

But over the years, the huge influx of rural to urban migration has posed enormous environmental and social challenges for the city especially in the area of housing, transportation and infrastructure. The insecurity in the north-east as well as social vices in some other parts of the country led to the rapid urban migration in Lagos. In fact, recent findings showed that 86 immigrants enter into the state every hour.

Many of these rural migrants are in the low income strata of the society; as a result, they live in the informal settlements known as slums. Some of the slum communities in Lagos are Agege, Makoko, Igando, Ajegunle, Amukoko, Badia, Bariga, Ilaje, Itire/Ijeshatedo, Iwaya, among several others.

Slum dwellers survive with practically no sanitation, water, urban amenities, employment, or security and almost one-sixth of the world’s population lives under these conditions. The lack of running water and sanitation, plus malnutrition and inadequate housing, leads to deadly conditions in the slums and shantytowns that surround many cities in Africa, according to a United Nations report.

The spread of HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases in areas where so many people live in such close physical proximity is a critical public health issue for urban areas throughout the developing world. When combined with high unemployment rates and inadequate schools, these public health issues create a poor quality of life for many of the city’s residents.

In fact, a 2017 World Bank report revealed that in Lagos, two out of three people live in slums. The report also noted that Africa’s cities had been growing in population, stating that adding the size of another Nigeria to cities in the continent, by 2025, would have a critical role to play in their countries’ economic growth.

Therefore, as one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, efforts need to be put in place by Lagos state government to improve transportation, infrastructure, housing, and other social welfare projects.

Tackling the Challenges

The World Bank in the recent report titled: “Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World,” noted that improving conditions for people and businesses in African cities by aggressively investing in infrastructure and reforming land markets would be the key to accelerating economic growth, adding jobs, and improving city competitiveness.

It also pointed out that in order to grow economically as they are growing in size presently, Lagos and other cities in Africa must open their doors and connect to the world. Africa’s urban population stands at 472 million people today. “As cities grow in size, another 187 million people will be added to urban areas by 2025. In fact, Africa’s urban population will double over the next 25 years, reaching one billion people by 2040.”

“What Africa needs are more affordable, connected, and liveable cities,” World Bank Vice President for Africa, Makhtar Diop said.

“Improving the economic and social dividends from urbanisation will be critical as better developed cities could transform Africa’s economies.”

The report noted that Africa was urbanising at lower incomes than other developing regions with similar urbanisation levels.

In 1968, when countries in the Middle East and North Africa region became 40 per cent urban, their per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $1,800 (2005 constant dollars). And in 1994, when countries in the East Asia and Pacific region surpassed the same threshold, their per capita GDP was $3,600.

“By contrast, Africa, with 40 per cent urbanisation, today has a per capita GDP of just $1,000. This means that every dollar of public investment in cities needs to be done as efficiently as possible, and leveraging as much as possible other sources of finance – from private sector, international partners, and citizens.

“Rapid urbanisation at lower incomes has meant that capital investment in African cities has remained relatively low in the region for the past four decades – at around 20 per cent of GDP.

“In contrast, urbanising countries in East Asia – China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea – stepped up capital investment during their periods of rapid urbanisation,” the report added.

Lacking capital investment, the report emphasised that investments in African cities’ infrastructure, industrial, and commercial structures have not kept pace with concentration of people, nor have investments in affordable formal housing. In addition, the report explained that because of this lack of connection, African cities have been among the costliest in the world both for businesses and for households, leaving cities “out of service and closed for business”.

It noted that African cities are 29 per cent more expensive than cities in countries at similar income levels.

African households face higher costs relative to their per capita GDP than do households in other regions – much of it accounted for by housing, which costs them a full 55 per cent more than in other regions.

“In Dar es Salaam, for example, 28 per cent of residents live at least three to a room; in Abidjan, 50 per cent. And in Lagos, Nigeria, two out of three people live in slums.

“Adding to this, city dwellers pay around 35 per cent more for food in Africa than in low-income and middle-income countries elsewhere. Overall, urban households pay 20 – 31 per cent more for goods and services in African countries than in other developing countries at similar income levels.

“In addition, urban workers in Africa are also forced to pay high commuting costs, or they cannot afford to commute by vehicle at all, and the informal minibus systems are far from cost efficient, leaving many to have to walk to work.

“The need for higher wages to pay higher living costs makes businesses less productive and competitive, keeping them out of tradable sectors. As a result, African cities are avoided by potential regional and global investors and trading partners.

“Given these costly conditions, the opportunities for tremendous gains in efficiency and productivity can lead to African cities becoming a strong catalyser of economic development,” it added.

According to the report, the key to freeing Africa’s cities from their low-development trap would be to set them on a path toward physical and economic density, connecting them for higher efficiency and boosting expectations for the future.

“The first priority is to formalise land markets, clarify property rights, and institute effective urban planning that allows land to be brought together.

“The second priority is to make early and coordinated infrastructure investments that allow for interlinkages among housing, infrastructure, commercial, and industrial development,” it added.

Lead Urban Economist at the World Bank and author of the report, Somik Lall added: “From an investment standpoint, Africa’s leaders and policy makers need to focus on early, coordinated infrastructure investments.

“Without this, they will remain local cities, closed to regional and global markets, trapped into producing only locally traded goods and services, and limited in their economic expansion.

“African cities need to create an internationally competitive tradable sector in order to stay open for business. For that to happen, city leaders must urgently have a strong and new urban development path for Africa.”

Attaining Megacity Dream

In line with the dream of attaining a megacity status, the Lagos state government has continued to pursue policies which it believe would help change the face of the state.

As part of its strategy, Lagos State Governor, Mr. Akinwumni Ambode said the state would phase out the popular yellow commercial buses popularly known as ‘danfo’ before the end of the year. The governor acknowledged that  there was a strong urban challenge of overcrowding and chaotic growth confronting the state. He stressed that his administration was committed to developing a “smart city that would drive revenue and make people’s lives easier.”

While commenting on the resolve of the government to ban ‘danfo’ buses, Ambode however said: “When I wake up in the morning and see all these yellow buses and see Okada and all kinds of tricycles and then we claim we are a mega city, that is not true and we must first acknowledge that, that is a faulty connectivity that we are running.

“Having accepted that, we have to look for the solution and that is why we want to banish yellow buses this year. We must address the issue of connectivity that makes people to move around with ease and that is where we are going.

“For instance, people going from Ikorodu to CMS have started leaving their cars at home because the buses are very convenient and so why can’t we do that for other places? Yes, we don’t have the money to do that but we can go to the capital market and then improve on the technology of collection of fares and that will encourage investors and then the city will change. We shall plan it thoroughly this year,” Ambode said.

He said government was also embarking on massive reform in waste management system, expressing optimism that the plan will fully be actualised by July this year.

He added: “We are also embarking on massive reform in the waste and sanitation management system. I don’t like the way the city is and the Private Sector Participants (PSP) collectors are not having enough capacity to do it but again should I tax people to death, the answer is no. I don’t want to tax people and so we need this partnership with the private sector so that they can invest in the sanitation management of the city and in no time maybe by July, the city will change forever.”

The Governor, who recalled the massive infrastructures being put in place in critical sectors of the Lagos economy such as transport sector, road construction and rehabilitation, construction of lay-bys, and flyovers among others, said the main objective of his administration remained the growth of the Lagos economy from 5th to 3rd largest economy in Africa.

On power, Governor Ambode said the major issue had always been with transmission and advocated an embedded power initiative that would allow clusters of Independent Power Projects (IPP) to run the cities.

Also, a renowned professor of economics and public policy at the University of Oxford, Paul Collier , noted that in few years’ time, the world would be dominated by coastal mega cities.

He said Lagos is one of the fastest growing megacities in the world, adding that for the state to achieve a mega city status, there would be need for a ‘golden’alliance between the public and the private sectors

“The business community should align itself with the local community. Several mega cities in Africa have confusing structures. We need strong alliance with the federal government to do things helpful to the mega city project. We need energy and connectivity. It is not complicated to get energy. The challenge is that people don’t get enough transmission due to their reluctance to pay for energy consumption,” he noted.

Collier stressed the need to embrace new technologies as part of efforts to provide a viable means of public transport infrastructure, while focusing on building good roads in the city of Lagos.

Collier added: “ Mega cities require huge public funding in order to boost productivity. There is also need for a strong tax system to encourage borrowing and lending for government.”

On his part, a Lecturer in the Department of Urban and Regional Development, University of Lagos, Dr. Oluwafe Olajide, said developing a mega city requires a mega approach in order to solve associated challenges. He argued that the approach the Lagos state government was using was one that does not allow informality to strive in all forms either from an economic or settlement point of view.

He explained that in developing a megacity, government should consider the reality on ground because a large portion of Lagos is a slum, adding that the focus should be on developing the slums.

Olajide added:  “The land regulatory policies, tenure system, and economic situations make people to develop slum communities. You find a situation where people begin to struggle ownership of a piece of land from government. Government say they own the land by virtue of the land use act, while the people on the other side also claim ownership.

“There is the pluralism of land tenure system which states that for a prospective developer, if you want to have access to land you have to go the Omonile to buy and then to go government buy the same land from government to regularise it.

“Government takes ownership of the land on paper, but there is no effective control on the land. If government owns the land why will they have to acquire it, this implies that there is something fundamentally wrong. Government owns the land but there are no laid out plans for development of land and the land cannot stay idle away.

“Lagos by standard is an urban conglomeration, where a lot of people come in because of the seeming opportunities involved. These individuals settle in those underdeveloped areas which government have abandoned. If the state government decides to redevelop those slums areas, you need to work with them.”

 Also, the Baale of Makoko, Chief Raymond Olaiya, said there are have been several interventions programmes in the community, especially from the government who have made several promises, adding that these promises have not been fulfilled.

“Government should strive to address the insecurity challenges facing the area. Presently there are a lot of miscreants in the area. If this issue is properly tackled, it will attract the needed development. We are not saying that the downtrodden will be thrown into the lagoon.

“The development plan for the community covers housing, security and social amenities. Before now, some government officials had come to us, they were ready to invest 3 billion dollars just on the water fronts.

“But sadly, the government officials couldn’t meet with their plans. The Emirate in Dubai sent people to Nigeria. I met with them and they told me that they have 15 billion dollars to be invested in the water front. I have being to Dubai and Europe, there I met people who told me that they have the money to invest in the water fronts,” he added.

On his part, the Vice President, Hewlett-Packard, Rogerio Rizzi de Oliveira, in a report titled: “How to improve life lived in the megacity,” stated that populations are shifting from rural areas to growing cities, creating megacities in the process.

Owing to this, he argued that so many people arrive in cities before more houses or infrastructure are built to absorb them – with the exception of China, where migration is more subject to central control – a large percentage of the initial growth in megacities is likely to be in slums.

To this end, Rizzi de Oliveira argued a couple of billion people have moved from rural areas to cities over the last 50 years, and another couple of billion will do so by 2050.

“The most visible proposals for solving the widespread infrastructural deficiencies in megacities typically draw on what worked in relatively small rich cities in Europe – Amsterdam, Stockholm, Barcelona – the dynamics of which are incomparable with those of Nairobi, Mumbai and Lagos,” he added.

According to him, “declining quality of living in megacities – rising costs, unmanageable traffic, debilitating pollution, critical water problems, rampant crime – is already leading to visible mass protests and brain drain.

“We need to find solutions to avoid collapse and get us through the next two or three decades, after which reduced population growth will begin to reduce the pressure on infrastructure.

“Megacities need to flourish as design leaders of innovative solutions, where its population can increasingly live lives blessed with quality and meaning – before they become tired old places with little to offer.

“We need urgently to find ways to harness existing technology and new brainpower to create amazing showcases for improving the quality of life in the megacity of the 21st century.”